MLB pitcher strikeout

Walbert Ureña

@ Pittsburgh Pirates2026-09-06PinnacleRHP

Projection

5.6

Ensemble: 5.6

Market line

4.5

Pinnacle

Model edge

+1.1

Over 4.5

70% (7/10)· 1O streak

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Recommendation

Over 4.5

Pinnacle

Confidence

B+

70/100

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Pitcher K%

24.3%

Whiff%

24%

CSW%

26.6%

WHIP

1.27

Avg IP

5.2

Avg pitches

88.4

Last 5 avg Ks

5.0

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

23.5%

Team chase

30.5%

Recent chase

30.1%

Recent contact

77.2%

Recent K% (7d)

16.2%

Opp K% vs RHP

23.3%

Opp K% vs LHP

26%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

4.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

5.6

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

70%

7 of 10 overs

Average Ks

5.1

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.6

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

70% (7/10)· 1O streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

4.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 4.5Model 5.6

Aug 31

vs NYY

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Aug 25

vs CLE

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 19

@ HOU

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Aug 13

vs TEX

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 8

@ MIA

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

15.5

FanDuel

Model projection

15.3

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Outs

15.5

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.0

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

60% (6/10)· 1O streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

15.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 15.5Model 15.3

Aug 31

vs NYY

OVER

Outs

+5.5

Aug 25

vs CLE

UNDER

Outs

-4.5

Aug 19

@ HOU

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 13

vs TEX

OVER

Outs

+2.5

Aug 8

@ MIA

UNDER

Outs

-8.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

No prior starts found against Pittsburgh Pirates.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
Pinnacle	4.5	-139	+105	+1.1	-1.1	Best Over
FanDuel	4.5	-138	+108	+1.1	-1.1	—
DraftKings	4.5	-159	+124	+1.1	-1.1	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

77.7%

5+ Ks

59.6%Line

6+ Ks

39%

7+ Ks

22.2%

8+ Ks

10.4%

9+ Ks

4.5%

10+ Ks

1.5%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Changeup	33.3%	32.2%	21.9%	90.7
Sinker	32%	14.7%	18.8%	98.1
4-Seam Fastball	20%	19.6%	12.7%	98
Sweeper	14.7%	37.3%	21.2%	87.5

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

39.7%

2-Strike Foul%

26.2%

2-Strike Contact%

75.9%

Expected Ks

24.9

K Luck

+0.1

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	19	36.8%	63.2%
1-2	30	46.7%	53.3%
2-2	30	36.7%	63.3%
3-2 (full)	14	21.4%	78.6%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Changeup	Sinker	4-Seam Fastball	Sweeper
Spencer HorwitzL	19.2%	14.7%	5.3% vs R: 5.9%	10.4% vs R: 15.2%	16% vs R: 13.8%	13.7% vs R: 12.1%
Brandon LoweL	37.5%	24.9%	20.2% vs R: 11.5%	19.2% vs R: 4.8%	20.2% vs R: 19.1%	24.1% vs R: 18.4%
Bryan ReynoldsS	22.5%	23.8%	12.1% vs R: 9.8%	17.1% vs R: 20%	20.8% vs R: 21.6%	23.9% vs R: 20%
Nick GonzalesR	16.4%	16.4%	12.7% vs R: 19.2%	25% vs R: 23.7%	13.7% vs R: 17.8%	12.7% vs R: 12.5%
Oneil CruzL	41.1%	31.7%	30.5% vs R: 29.2%	35.4% vs R: 22.2%	25% vs R: 24.2%	22.9% vs R: 20.8%
Jake MangumS	20.5%	19.2%	15.9% vs R: 16.7%	18.4% vs R: 16.7%	18.9% vs R: 19.7%	14.6% vs R: 14.7%
Rafael Flores Jr.R	30.8%	30.6%	23.8% vs R: 30%	14.3% vs R: 12.5%	34.3% vs R: 40%	7.7% vs R: 10%
Jared TrioloR	14.1%	23.3%	10.6% vs R: 7.7%	18% vs R: 21.6%	19.8% vs R: 25.8%	19.6% vs R: 23.7%
Henry DavisR	25.6%	19.8%	18.4% vs R: 14.3%	16.7% vs R: 13%	23.9% vs R: 21.6%	11.4% vs R: 13.2%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Changeup	Sinker	4-Seam Fastball	Sweeper
Spencer HorwitzL	12.9% vs R: 14.3%	8.2% vs R: 6%	11.9% vs R: 8.8%	13.6% vs R: 17.5%
Brandon LoweL	37.8% vs R: 32.5%	16.4% vs R: 17.2%	27.9% vs R: 27.1%	39.5% vs R: 32.1%
Bryan ReynoldsS	26.8% vs R: 23.2%	15.2% vs R: 14.6%	16.4% vs R: 12.9%	33.3% vs R: 34.1%
Nick GonzalesR	28.4% vs R: 25%	15.7% vs R: 16.4%	14.4% vs R: 18.7%	18.4% vs R: 18.1%
Oneil CruzL	50.6% vs R: 48.7%	18.6% vs R: 15.2%	27.6% vs R: 29%	37% vs R: 43.8%
Jake MangumS	25.2% vs R: 22.5%	13.3% vs R: 12.2%	19.1% vs R: 21.3%	18.9% vs R: 16.7%
Rafael Flores Jr.R	50% vs R: 66.7%	11.5% vs R: 15%	29.7% vs R: 37.9%	21.4% vs R: 23.1%
Jared TrioloR	20.7% vs R: 0%	11.1% vs R: 12.2%	11.4% vs R: 14.4%	24.1% vs R: 32.6%
Henry DavisR	33.3% vs R: 22.7%	9.3% vs R: 11.2%	28.5% vs R: 30.6%	18.4% vs R: 20.9%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

No head-to-head history found for this lineup.

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Spencer Horwitz	23.4%	24.2%	26.1%	77.1%
Brandon Lowe	34.3%	39.6%	34.1%	69.2%
Bryan Reynolds	27%	22%	13.7%	75.3%
Nick Gonzales	31.3%	23.5%	10.6%	84.9%
Oneil Cruz	25.6%	26.2%	33.3%	67.7%
Jake Mangum	43.6%	40.7%	21.1%	83.3%
Rafael Flores Jr.	29%	27.1%	24.3%	78.1%
Jared Triolo	26.1%	28.8%	16.7%	84.6%
Henry Davis	34.3%	38.5%	N/A	75%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-08	Texas Rangers	5.8	3
2026-07-21	St. Louis Cardinals	5.5	5
2026-07-27	Houston Astros	6.1	5
2026-08-02	Milwaukee Brewers	5.7	7
2026-08-08	Miami Marlins	5.2	2
2026-08-13	Texas Rangers	4.7	5
2026-08-19	Houston Astros	5	7
2026-08-25	Cleveland Guardians	4.7	3
2026-08-31	New York Yankees	4.5	8
2026-09-06	Pittsburgh Pirates	5.58	—

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 24.3%

!Whiff rate is 24%

!CSW rate is 26.6%

!Opponent K% is 22.7%

!Average pitch count is 88.4

!WHIP is 1.27

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-08-31	New York Yankees	Home	7	8	95	1.26	17	47.1%
2026-08-25	Cleveland Guardians	Home	3.2	3	89	1.29	12	25%
2026-08-19	Houston Astros	Away	5	7	94	1.24	13	53.8%
2026-08-13	Texas Rangers	Home	6	5	100	1.25	14	35.7%
2026-08-08	Miami Marlins	Away	2.1	2	50	1.29	7	28.6%
2026-08-02	Milwaukee Brewers	Home	6	7	90	1.25	14	50%
2026-07-27	Houston Astros	Home	6	5	91	1.26	13	38.5%
2026-07-21	St. Louis Cardinals	Home	6	5	98	1.31	13	38.5%
2026-07-08	Texas Rangers	Away	4	3	90	1.32	13	23.1%
2026-07-02	Seattle Mariners	Away	5.2	6	107	1.31	16	37.5%