MLB pitcher strikeout

Jackson Jobe

@ Cleveland Guardians2026-09-06DraftKingsRHP

Projection

3.9

Ensemble: 3.9

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+0.4

Over 3.5

80% (4/5)· 2O streak

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Recommendation

Over 3.5

DraftKings

Confidence

B+

70/100

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Pitcher K%

18.3%

Whiff%

18.9%

CSW%

22%

WHIP

1.2

Avg IP

4.7

Avg pitches

81.8

Last 5 avg Ks

3.8

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

17.7%

Team chase

29.5%

Recent chase

29.4%

Recent contact

81.1%

Recent K% (7d)

17.2%

Opp K% vs RHP

18.2%

Opp K% vs LHP

15.9%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model projection

3.9

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

80%

4 of 5 overs

Average Ks

3.8

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

80% (4/5)· 2O streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 3.9

Aug 31

@ MIN

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 25

vs TB

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 19

@ PIT

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 14

vs CWS

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 8

@ SF

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

15.5

FanDuel

Model projection

14.2

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

20%

1 of 5 overs

Average Outs

14.0

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.5

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

20% (1/5)· 2U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

15.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 15.5Model 14.2

Aug 31

@ MIN

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 25

vs TB

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 19

@ PIT

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 14

vs CWS

UNDER

Outs

-4.5

Aug 8

@ SF

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Cleveland Guardians

No prior starts found against Cleveland Guardians.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	3.5	+103	-132	+0.4	-0.4	Best Over
FanDuel	3.5	+102	-130	+0.4	-0.4	—
Pinnacle	3.5	+102	-130	+0.4	-0.4	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

48.2%Line

5+ Ks

26.9%

6+ Ks

12.5%

7+ Ks

4.8%

8+ Ks

1.5%

9+ Ks

0.3%

10+ Ks

0.1%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	35.5%	9.9%	20.5%	97.8
Slider	24.2%	18.8%	4.5%	90
Sinker	16.9%	15.6%	9.1%	96
Changeup	11.7%	31.6%	15.8%	86.1
Curveball	11.7%	17.6%	27.3%	83.4

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

40.4%

2-Strike Foul%

28.3%

2-Strike Contact%

79.7%

Expected Ks

K Luck

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	15	33.3%	66.7%
1-2	23	34.8%	65.2%
2-2	22	31.8%	68.2%
3-2 (full)	21	23.8%	76.2%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Sinker	Changeup	Curveball
Steven KwanL	13.4%	8.5%	6.9% vs R: 5.3%	14.6% vs R: 15.9%	6.2% vs R: 5.4%	4.9% vs R: 3.9%	16% vs R: 18.2%
Chase DeLauterL	19.2%	12.9%	18.4% vs R: 15.7%	15.2% vs R: 22.2%	11.5% vs R: 8%	9.2% vs R: 9.6%	19.4% vs R: 14.3%
José RamírezS	7%	15.1%	7% vs R: 8.3%	13.3% vs R: 14.3%	11.1% vs R: 9.7%	13.3% vs R: 14.3%	14.3% vs R: 16.7%
Jo AdellR	22%	24.2%	16.8% vs R: 17.7%	19.2% vs R: 20.2%	21.9% vs R: 22.2%	22.8% vs R: 24.4%	15.6% vs R: 18.2%
Nathaniel LoweL	25.6%	23.8%	17.9% vs R: 18.3%	18.2% vs R: 14.3%	17% vs R: 17.4%	13.5% vs R: 12.2%	20.5% vs R: 20.5%
Angel MartínezS	16.7%	25%	15.4% vs R: 11.5%	23.7% vs R: 22.7%	32.7% vs R: 37.5%	14% vs R: 11.1%	10.8% vs R: 15.4%
Angel GenaoS	7.1%	15.5%	6.5% vs R: 9.5%	25% vs R: 23.1%	14.3% vs R: 7.7%	14.3% vs R: 20%	28.6% vs R: 28.6%
Austin HedgesR	10.8%	25.4%	13.6% vs R: 17.5%	18.6% vs R: 17.9%	27.3% vs R: 33.3%	14.3%	25% vs R: 50%
Brayan RocchioS	16.2%	13.7%	14.8% vs R: 14.9%	14.9% vs R: 7%	9.6% vs R: 7.3%	15.9% vs R: 15.7%	15.4% vs R: 21.9%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Sinker	Changeup	Curveball
Steven KwanL	2.5% vs R: 2.3%	11.9% vs R: 5%	2.9% vs R: 4.9%	10.7% vs R: 7.9%	13% vs R: 15%
Chase DeLauterL	12.4% vs R: 10%	22.8% vs R: 21.7%	4.9% vs R: 3.9%	17.5% vs R: 17.7%	17.5% vs R: 10%
José RamírezS	9.1% vs R: 9.9%	19.4% vs R: 20.4%	9.2% vs R: 10.5%	19.7% vs R: 19.8%	20.5% vs R: 20.7%
Jo AdellR	20.2% vs R: 22.1%	35.6% vs R: 36.4%	16.7% vs R: 16.4%	39.9% vs R: 28.3%	27.8% vs R: 25.7%
Nathaniel LoweL	16.8% vs R: 16.6%	26% vs R: 17.9%	12.2% vs R: 13.7%	20% vs R: 18.2%	30% vs R: 30.8%
Angel MartínezS	12.4% vs R: 12%	22.1% vs R: 21.9%	15.6% vs R: 15.7%	19% vs R: 18.6%	23.7% vs R: 29.6%
Angel GenaoS	11.4% vs R: 6.7%	33.3% vs R: 29.4%	8.6% vs R: 4.2%	10% vs R: 8.3%	27.3% vs R: 27.3%
Austin HedgesR	16.3% vs R: 15%	33.3% vs R: 35.7%	6.6% vs R: 8.1%	28.6%	41.7% vs R: 50%
Brayan RocchioS	14.6% vs R: 12.7%	27.7% vs R: 23.2%	9% vs R: 10.8%	31.4% vs R: 28.1%	33.3% vs R: 45.5%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K%	AVG
Steven Kwan	3	0%	.333
José Ramírez	3	0%	.500
Angel Martínez	3	0%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Steven Kwan	18.6%	18.8%	9.4%	97.8%
Chase DeLauter	24.1%	24.1%	24.2%	83.1%
José Ramírez	28.9%	30.9%	15.4%	87.8%
Jo Adell	34.3%	33.6%	17.6%	77.9%
Nathaniel Lowe	30.4%	33.7%	29.5%	76.2%
Angel Martínez	38.3%	25.7%	18.2%	85.7%
Angel Genao	28.2%	25.3%	15.8%	76.4%
Austin Hedges	28.1%	28.6%	34.8%	67.4%
Brayan Rocchio	34.7%	43.5%	14.6%	77.6%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-08-08	San Francisco Giants	0	4
2026-08-14	Chicago White Sox	4.4	4
2026-08-19	Pittsburgh Pirates	3.1	3
2026-08-25	Tampa Bay Rays	1.5	4
2026-08-31	Minnesota Twins	1.9	4
2026-09-06	Cleveland Guardians	3.91	—

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 18.3%

!Whiff rate is 18.9%

!CSW rate is 22%

!Opponent K% is 17%

!Average pitch count is 81.8

!WHIP is 1.2

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-08-31	Minnesota Twins	Away	5	4	92	1.46	9	44.4%
2026-08-25	Tampa Bay Rays	Home	4.1	4	86	1.42	11	36.4%
2026-08-19	Pittsburgh Pirates	Away	5.1	3	86	1.36	9	33.3%
2026-08-14	Chicago White Sox	Home	3.2	4	74	1.38	9	44.4%
2026-08-08	San Francisco Giants	Away	5	4	71	0.4	9	44.4%