MLB pitcher strikeout

Ian Seymour

@ Texas Rangers2026-09-06FanDuelLHP

Projection

5.6

Ensemble: 5.6

Market line

5.5

FanDuel

Model edge

No qualifying edge

60% (6/10)· 1O streak

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Recommendation

No recommendation

Confidence

A+

100/100

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Pitcher K%

32%

Whiff%

30%

CSW%

33.3%

WHIP

1.14

Avg IP

5.7

Avg pitches

88.1

Last 5 avg Ks

7.8

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

30.5%

Team chase

29.9%

Recent chase

29.1%

Recent contact

77.2%

Recent K% (7d)

18.2%

Opp K% vs RHP

22.3%

Opp K% vs LHP

24.7%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

5.5

FanDuel

Model projection

5.6

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Ks

6.6

Selected starts

Average margin

+1.1

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

60% (6/10)· 1O streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

5.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 5.5Model 5.6

Aug 31

vs NYM

OVER

Strikeouts

+4.5

Aug 25

@ DET

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 20

vs TOR

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Aug 15

vs BAL

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Aug 9

@ SEA

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

16.5

DraftKings

Model projection

16.4

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Outs

15.6

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.9

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

60% (6/10)· 2O streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

16.5

0.527

Over

Under

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Line 16.5Model 16.4

Aug 31

vs NYM

OVER

Outs

+2.5

Aug 25

@ DET

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 20

vs TOR

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Aug 15

vs BAL

OVER

Outs

+1.5

Aug 9

@ SEA

OVER

Outs

+1.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Texas Rangers

No prior starts found against Texas Rangers.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	5.5	-111	-115	+0.1	-0.1	—
DraftKings	5.5	-138	+108	+0.1	-0.1	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

89.5%

5+ Ks

77.4%

6+ Ks

59.9%Line

7+ Ks

40.6%

8+ Ks

24.3%

9+ Ks

12.7%

10+ Ks

5.4%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	29.6%	23.7%	23.8%	91.3
Changeup	28.1%	37.6%	27%	83.4
Sweeper	20.5%	22.2%	21.5%	81.6
Sinker	14%	4.2%	15.8%	89.9
Slider	6.7%	30.6%	24%	83.4
Curveball	1.1%	50%	0%	72.7

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

47.6%

2-Strike Foul%

19.3%

2-Strike Contact%

67.3%

Expected Ks

41.4

K Luck

-2.4

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	41	51.2%	48.8%
1-2	46	45.7%	54.3%
2-2	28	32.1%	67.9%
3-2 (full)	15	20%	80%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Sweeper	Sinker	Slider	Curveball
Joc PedersonL	38.9%	22.2%	20.7% vs L: 30%	16.5%	14% vs L: 22.2%	18.9% vs L: 17.6%	21.6% vs L: 18.2%	20%
Corey SeagerL	25.9%	22.5%	23.9% vs L: 25.7%	17.6%	31% vs L: 46.7%	17.8% vs L: 17.6%	26.2% vs L: 21.6%	23.1% vs L: 20%
Wyatt LangfordR	22.5%	19.8%	19.9% vs L: 22.4%	18.5% vs L: 21.2%	16% vs L: 0%	19.3% vs L: 36.4%	12.5% vs L: 13.9%	4.2% vs L: 6.7%
Brandon NimmoL	19%	22.4%	14.9% vs L: 13.7%	25.6% vs L: 40%	16.1% vs L: 5%	17.8% vs L: 26.1%	18.6% vs L: 15.4%	8.6% vs L: 0%
Ezequiel DuranR	22.4%	23.6%	15.5% vs L: 16.2%	6.8% vs L: 10.3%	16% vs L: 15.4%	12.3% vs L: 0%	25.2% vs L: 17.1%	28.6% vs L: 44.4%
Jake BurgerR	27%	26.3%	25.8% vs L: 24.5%	30.8% vs L: 29.6%	25.3% vs L: 25%	15.7% vs L: 11.1%	21% vs L: 30.8%	32.1% vs L: 33.3%
Evan CarterL	33.3%	22.1%	17.3% vs L: 26.9%	17.6%	22.2% vs L: 25%	10.9% vs L: 20%	22.7% vs L: 27.6%	19.2% vs L: 20%
Cody FreemanR	14.3%	14.3%	9.8% vs L: 10.5%	0% vs L: 0%	12.5%	0% vs L: 0%	13.3% vs L: 12.5%	28.6% vs L: 28.6%
Elias DíazR	22.4%	25.9%	17% vs L: 10.3%	9.1% vs L: 5.6%	32% vs L: 25%	13% vs L: 33.3%	28.2% vs L: 43.8%	17.6% vs L: 18.8%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Sweeper	Sinker	Slider	Curveball
Joc PedersonL	25.9% vs L: 23.1%	27%	42.9% vs L: 50%	21.6% vs L: 23.1%	38.6% vs L: 44.4%	25.4%
Corey SeagerL	26.7% vs L: 22.2%	31.4%	32.6% vs L: 53.3%	23% vs L: 21.6%	43.5% vs L: 40.9%	35.5% vs L: 37.5%
Wyatt LangfordR	15.4% vs L: 12.3%	35.4% vs L: 40.8%	27.8% vs L: 21.4%	10.4% vs L: 17.2%	19.2% vs L: 12.8%	30.8% vs L: 35.3%
Brandon NimmoL	17.4% vs L: 15.9%	20.5% vs L: 37.5%	23.2% vs L: 19.2%	13.7% vs L: 15.3%	28.2% vs L: 30.4%	14.3% vs L: 20%
Ezequiel DuranR	23.8% vs L: 21.8%	22% vs L: 28.6%	23.7% vs L: 10%	10.6% vs L: 0%	39.6% vs L: 31.8%	34.3% vs L: 38.5%
Jake BurgerR	25.5% vs L: 23.7%	47.2% vs L: 46.6%	35.2% vs L: 12.5%	15.1% vs L: 8%	44% vs L: 45.5%	31% vs L: 40.9%
Evan CarterL	15.3% vs L: 26.3%	34.2%	31.6% vs L: 42.9%	12% vs L: 6.9%	39.5% vs L: 51.9%	43.3% vs L: 50%
Cody FreemanR	6.8% vs L: 10.3%	23.1% vs L: 37.5%	12.5%	3.8% vs L: 14.3%	21.1% vs L: 14.3%	40% vs L: 40%
Elias DíazR	23.8% vs L: 19.4%	29.3% vs L: 23.5%	43.2% vs L: 16.7%	11.7% vs L: 23.5%	43.3% vs L: 53.8%	20% vs L: 21.7%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Wyatt Langford	2	1	50%	.000
Brandon Nimmo	2	1	50%	.000
Ezequiel Duran	2	0	0%	.000
Jake Burger	2	0	0%	.500
Elias Díaz	2	0	0%	.500

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Joc Pederson	33.1%	30.8%	33.3%	75.4%
Corey Seager	25.1%	25.7%	20.8%	71.1%
Wyatt Langford	27.6%	28.1%	13%	81%
Brandon Nimmo	29.2%	23%	18.9%	79.5%
Ezequiel Duran	35.7%	33.3%	15.4%	74.5%
Jake Burger	34.4%	34%	21.3%	70.7%
Evan Carter	21.3%	26.2%	24.2%	78.9%
Cody Freeman	25.9%	28.9%	6.2%	91.5%
Elias Díaz	37.1%	31.6%	30.3%	72.2%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-07	New York Yankees	5.3	12
2026-07-12	Seattle Mariners	6.1	3
2026-07-18	Boston Red Sox	6.5	4
2026-08-03	Colorado Rockies	5.1	9
2026-08-09	Seattle Mariners	5.4	7
2026-08-15	Baltimore Orioles	7.9	9
2026-08-20	Toronto Blue Jays	8.3	8
2026-08-31	New York Mets	7.7	10
2026-09-06	Texas Rangers	5.6	—

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

✓Pitcher K% is 32%

✓Whiff rate is 30%

✓CSW rate is 33.3%

✓Opponent K% is 23.2%

!Average pitch count is 88.1

✓WHIP is 1.14

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-08-31	New York Mets	Home	6.1	10	88	1.14	16	62.5%
2026-08-25	Detroit Tigers	Away	5.2	5	88	1.15	14	35.7%
2026-08-20	Toronto Blue Jays	Home	5	8	90	1.14	15	53.3%
2026-08-15	Baltimore Orioles	Home	6	9	93	1.13	20	45%
2026-08-09	Seattle Mariners	Away	6	7	98	1.13	17	41.2%
2026-08-03	Colorado Rockies	Away	6	9	90	1.13	13	69.2%
2026-07-29	Texas Rangers	Home	4.2	4	71	1.12	11	36.4%
2026-07-23	Toronto Blue Jays	Away	6	7	87	1.15	13	53.8%
2026-07-18	Boston Red Sox	Away	3	4	61	1.17	9	44.4%
2026-07-12	Seattle Mariners	Home	3.1	3	78	1.16	7	42.9%