MLB pitcher strikeout
Bryce Elder
Projection
2.3
Model strikeouts
Market line
4.5
Caesars
Model edge
+2.2
Under 4.5
Recommendation
Under 4.5
Caesars
Confidence
B+
70/100
Pitcher K%
16.5%
Whiff%
20.1%
CSW%
26.5%
WHIP
1.16
Avg IP
5
Avg pitches
79.4
Last 5 avg Ks
3.8
Games logged
19
Matchup K%
N/A
Platoon K%
17.6%
Team chase
30.2%
Recent chase
28.7%
Recent contact
81.1%
Prop performance terminal
STRIKEOUT RESULTS
Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.
Market line
4.5
Caesars
Model projection
2.3
Expected strikeouts
Hit rate
20%
2 of 10 overs
Average Ks
3.7
Selected starts
Average margin
-0.8
Vs selected line
Current streak
3
UNDER
Interactive line simulator
Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.
Active line
4.5
Over
2
Under
8
Push
0
Jul 20
San Diego Padres
Strikeouts
4
-0.5
Jul 9
Pittsburgh Pirates
Strikeouts
3
-1.5
Jun 27
San Francisco Giants
Strikeouts
4
-0.5
Jun 21
Milwaukee Brewers
Strikeouts
6
+1.5
Jun 14
New York Mets
Strikeouts
2
-2.5
Analytics
Sportsbook Lines
| Book | Line | Over odds | Under odds | Over edge | Under edge | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada | 3.5 | -170 | +130 | -1.2 | +1.2 | — |
| Caesars | 4.5 | +132 | -- | -2.2 | +2.2 | Best Under |
| DraftKings | 4.5 | -120 | -- | -2.2 | +2.2 | — |
| FanDuel | 3.5 | -280 | +132 | -1.2 | +1.2 | — |
| BetMGM | 4.5 | +120 | -160 | -2.2 | +2.2 | — |
| ESPN BET | 4.5 | -125 | -110 | -2.2 | +2.2 | — |
Analytics
Batter vs. Pitcher History
| Batter | PA | K | K% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ty France | 9 | 1 | 11.1% |
| Manny Machado | 8 | 0 | 0% |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 6 | 0 | 0% |
| Jackson Merrill | 5 | 2 | 40% |
| Jake Cronenworth | 5 | 0 | 0% |
| Xander Bogaerts | 4 | 1 | 25% |
| Gavin Sheets | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| Freddy Fermin | 2 | 1 | 50% |
| Sung-Mun Song | 2 | 1 | 50% |
Analytics
Lineup Chase Rate
| Batter | Chase rate | Recent chase | Recent K% | Recent contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 27.1% | 25% | 17.1% | 73% |
| Jackson Merrill | 34.7% | 40.6% | 21.4% | 81.1% |
| Manny Machado | 33.5% | 28.4% | 8.8% | 78.3% |
| Ty France | 32.7% | 29.3% | 6.5% | 82.9% |
| Gavin Sheets | 30% | 20% | 18.2% | 85.4% |
| Xander Bogaerts | 24.6% | 22.1% | 21.4% | 81% |
| Jake Cronenworth | 29.5% | 39% | 17.2% | 85.2% |
| Freddy Fermin | 34.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Sung-Mun Song | 25.4% | 25.5% | 14.3% | 81.8% |
Analytics
Projection History
| Date | Opponent | Projected | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 3 | 3 |
| 2026-07-20 | San Diego Padres | 2.3 | 4 |
Analytics
Why This Projection?
Analytics
Last 10 Starts
| Date | Opponent | H/A | IP | Ks | Pitches | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | San Diego Padres | Home | 6 | 4 | 77 | 1.23 |
| 2026-07-09 | Pittsburgh Pirates | Away | 4 | 3 | 69 | 1.25 |
| 2026-06-27 | San Francisco Giants | Away | 4 | 4 | 69 | 1.23 |
| 2026-06-21 | Milwaukee Brewers | Home | 6 | 6 | 95 | 1.21 |
| 2026-06-14 | New York Mets | Away | 4 | 2 | 75 | 1.14 |
| 2026-06-07 | Pittsburgh Pirates | Home | 6 | 4 | 88 | 1.05 |
| 2026-06-02 | Toronto Blue Jays | Home | 6.2 | 6 | 103 | 1.08 |
| 2026-05-27 | Boston Red Sox | Away | 3.1 | 1 | 59 | 1.08 |
| 2026-05-22 | Washington Nationals | Home | 6 | 4 | 87 | 0.99 |
| 2026-05-16 | Boston Red Sox | Home | 8 | 3 | 103 | 0.99 |