MLB pitcher strikeout
Trevor McDonald
Projection
1.9
Model strikeouts
Market line
3.5
Bovada
Model edge
+1.6
Under 3.5
Recommendation
Under 3.5
Bovada
Confidence
B+
70/100
Pitcher K%
14.3%
Whiff%
16.8%
CSW%
26.9%
WHIP
1.3
Avg IP
4.5
Avg pitches
78.2
Last 5 avg Ks
3.0
Games logged
14
Matchup K%
N/A
Platoon K%
17.8%
Team chase
32.3%
Recent chase
33.9%
Recent contact
78.3%
Prop performance terminal
STRIKEOUT RESULTS
Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.
Market line
3.5
Bovada
Model projection
1.9
Expected strikeouts
Hit rate
60%
6 of 10 overs
Average Ks
3.6
Selected starts
Average margin
+0.1
Vs selected line
Current streak
1
UNDER
Interactive line simulator
Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.
Active line
3.5
Over
6
Under
4
Push
0
Jul 20
Kansas City Royals
Strikeouts
3
-0.5
Jul 12
Colorado Rockies
Strikeouts
4
+0.5
Jul 7
Toronto Blue Jays
Strikeouts
0
-3.5
Jul 1
Arizona Diamondbacks
Strikeouts
5
+1.5
Jun 26
Atlanta Braves
Strikeouts
3
-0.5
Analytics
Sportsbook Lines
| Book | Line | Over odds | Under odds | Over edge | Under edge | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada | 3.5 | +115 | -150 | -1.6 | +1.6 | Best Under |
| Caesars | 3.5 | +113 | -- | -1.6 | +1.6 | — |
| DraftKings | 3.5 | -170 | -- | -1.6 | +1.6 | — |
| FanDuel | 3.5 | -210 | -- | -1.6 | +1.6 | — |
| BetMGM | 3.5 | +115 | -155 | -1.6 | +1.6 | — |
| ESPN BET | 3.5 | -180 | +130 | -1.6 | +1.6 | — |
Analytics
Batter vs. Pitcher History
| Batter | PA | K | K% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Jensen | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 2 | 1 | 50% |
| Jac Caglianone | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| Lane Thomas | 2 | 1 | 50% |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| Salvador Perez | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| Michael Massey | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| Josh Rojas | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| Isaac Collins | 2 | 0 | 0% |
Analytics
Lineup Chase Rate
| Batter | Chase rate | Recent chase | Recent K% | Recent contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Jensen | 25.4% | 25.6% | 35.9% | 78.8% |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | 33.4% | 32.9% | 30.3% | 74.2% |
| Jac Caglianone | 38% | 44.2% | 13.9% | 83.3% |
| Lane Thomas | 19.6% | 17.2% | 24.3% | 82.5% |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 30.2% | 37.9% | 14.3% | 83.7% |
| Salvador Perez | 45.7% | 48% | 22.2% | 69.6% |
| Michael Massey | 38.2% | 36.4% | 7.1% | 88% |
| Josh Rojas | 40.8% | 40.5% | 21.1% | 65.7% |
| Isaac Collins | 19.8% | 22.1% | 28.1% | 79.3% |
Analytics
Projection History
| Date | Opponent | Projected | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Toronto Blue Jays | 2.4 | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Colorado Rockies | 2.5 | 4 |
| 2026-07-20 | Kansas City Royals | 1.9 | 3 |
Analytics
Why This Projection?
Analytics
Last 10 Starts
| Date | Opponent | H/A | IP | Ks | Pitches | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Kansas City Royals | Away | 4 | 3 | 67 | 1.31 |
| 2026-07-12 | Colorado Rockies | Home | 7 | 4 | 73 | 1.3 |
| 2026-07-07 | Toronto Blue Jays | Home | 2.1 | 0 | 58 | 1.38 |
| 2026-07-01 | Arizona Diamondbacks | Away | 6 | 5 | 90 | 1.23 |
| 2026-06-26 | Atlanta Braves | Home | 5.1 | 3 | 90 | 1.35 |
| 2026-06-20 | Miami Marlins | Away | 3 | 1 | 69 | 1.34 |
| 2026-06-13 | Chicago Cubs | Home | 3.2 | 4 | 92 | 1.29 |
| 2026-06-07 | Chicago Cubs | Away | 5 | 6 | 87 | 1.18 |
| 2026-06-02 | Milwaukee Brewers | Away | 5 | 4 | 87 | 1.15 |
| 2026-05-27 | Arizona Diamondbacks | Home | 6.1 | 6 | 86 | 1.07 |