MLB pitcher strikeout

Tanner Gordon

vs St. Louis Cardinals2026-09-06FanDuelRHP

Projection

3.8

Ensemble: 3.8

Market line

3.5

FanDuel

Model edge

+0.3

Over 3.5

40% (4/10)· 1U streak

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see this pitcher's projection, market line, and model edge.

Recommendation

Over 3.5

FanDuel

Confidence

B+

70/100

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see this pitcher's recommendation and confidence grade.

Pitcher K%

16.2%

Whiff%

20.3%

CSW%

25.7%

WHIP

1.47

Avg IP

4.8

Avg pitches

62.8

Last 5 avg Ks

3.2

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

17.5%

Team chase

33.2%

Recent chase

34.2%

Recent contact

77.5%

Recent K% (7d)

22.5%

Opp K% vs RHP

24.4%

Opp K% vs LHP

20.7%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see matchup-specific stats.

Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

FanDuel

Model projection

3.8

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Ks

3.3

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.2

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

40% (4/10)· 1U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 3.8

Aug 31

vs BAL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 26

@ WSH

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 21

vs CLE

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 15

@ SF

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 9

@ STL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

15.5

DraftKings

Model projection

15.2

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Outs

14.5

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.0

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

40% (4/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

15.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 15.5Model 15.2

Aug 31

vs BAL

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 26

@ WSH

OVER

Outs

+5.5

Aug 21

vs CLE

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 15

@ SF

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

Aug 9

@ STL

UNDER

Outs

-5.5

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see projection history vs. results.

Analytics

Career vs. St. Louis Cardinals

No prior starts found against St. Louis Cardinals.

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see career history vs. today's opponent.

Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	3.5	-154	+120	+0.3	-0.3	Best Over
Pinnacle	3.5	-156	+122	+0.3	-0.3	—
DraftKings	3.5	-156	+122	+0.3	-0.3	—

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see sportsbook lines and edges.

Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

64.7%Line

5+ Ks

43.2%

6+ Ks

25.6%

7+ Ks

12.6%

8+ Ks

9+ Ks

1.8%

10+ Ks

0.5%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see this pitcher's strikeout ladder.

Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	51.1%	18%	21.5%	92.6
Changeup	22.2%	19.3%	14.6%	84.5
Slider	19%	13.2%	11.5%	87.3
Curveball	7.6%	15.4%	12.9%	81.9

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

33.3%

2-Strike Foul%

28.3%

2-Strike Contact%

81.6%

Expected Ks

17.4

K Luck

-1.4

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	27	25.9%	74.1%
1-2	22	27.3%	72.7%
2-2	19	36.8%	63.2%
3-2 (full)	8	12.5%	87.5%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Slider	Curveball
JJ WetherholtL	16.1%	16.2%	18.7% vs R: 18.5%	11.9% vs R: 9.7%	11.9% vs R: 13.3%	10.5% vs R: 12.5%
Iván HerreraR	15.4%	19.3%	13.7% vs R: 15.7%	14.7% vs R: 21.4%	12.7% vs R: 15.4%	13.6% vs R: 17.2%
Alec BurlesonL	17.6%	16.9%	20.1% vs R: 17.7%	19% vs R: 14.7%	18.4% vs R: 22.7%	13.2% vs R: 12.1%
Jordan WalkerR	21%	26.3%	26.4% vs R: 29.6%	26.3% vs R: 33.3%	27.3% vs R: 32.9%	27% vs R: 25%
Joshua BáezR	34.3%	34.2%	47.4% vs R: 16.7%	37.5%	11.1% vs R: 22.2%	40%
José FermínR	11%	14.5%	9.2% vs R: 10.4%	5.9% vs R: 0%	10.3% vs R: 13.3%	9.7% vs R: 7.1%
Nolan GormanL	26.2%	34%	19.5% vs R: 20.2%	28.6% vs R: 29.9%	20% vs R: 15.8%	30% vs R: 31.2%
Nathan ChurchL	15.9%	18.3%	15.1% vs R: 15.8%	18.1% vs R: 17.6%	14.1% vs R: 17.5%	10% vs R: 11.1%
Pedro PagésR	28.9%	23.6%	15.7% vs R: 17.5%	23.4% vs R: 33.3%	25.6% vs R: 26.9%	10.3% vs R: 11.1%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see the lineup-vs-arsenal matchup breakdown.

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Slider	Curveball
JJ WetherholtL	19.3% vs R: 19.5%	21.2% vs R: 20.2%	15.6% vs R: 19.3%	13.7% vs R: 17.6%
Iván HerreraR	11.4% vs R: 11.6%	29.7% vs R: 27.6%	30.6% vs R: 30.8%	17.4% vs R: 24.2%
Alec BurlesonL	19.1% vs R: 21.1%	18.4% vs R: 17.2%	26.2% vs R: 31%	22% vs R: 19.5%
Jordan WalkerR	20.1% vs R: 21.8%	40.9% vs R: 41.2%	38.5% vs R: 45.3%	40.6% vs R: 39.3%
Joshua BáezR	34.4% vs R: 33.3%	47.6%	30.8% vs R: 33.3%	50%
José FermínR	8.9% vs R: 7.6%	15% vs R: 7.1%	15.8% vs R: 13.8%	12% vs R: 16.7%
Nolan GormanL	32.6% vs R: 33.3%	51% vs R: 51.5%	32.8% vs R: 23.7%	39.1% vs R: 33.3%
Nathan ChurchL	18.1% vs R: 18.9%	25.2% vs R: 24.6%	16.1% vs R: 22%	14.6% vs R: 16.3%
Pedro PagésR	16.8% vs R: 21%	50% vs R: 45.5%	30.9% vs R: 34.4%	21.4% vs R: 25%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see the lineup-vs-arsenal whiff matchup breakdown.

Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K%	AVG
Iván Herrera	4	0%	.500
Alec Burleson	4	0%	.000
Jordan Walker	3	0%	.333
José Fermín	2	0%	.000
Nathan Church	2	0%	.500
JJ Wetherholt	1	0%	1.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
JJ Wetherholt	19.6%	20%	13.3%	81.5%
Iván Herrera	28.4%	20.2%	19.6%	85.4%
Alec Burleson	40.2%	45.8%	20.8%	78.4%
Jordan Walker	36.7%	39.3%	37.5%	63%
Joshua Báez	40.1%	42.9%	36.1%	66.2%
José Fermín	21.1%	26.8%	16.7%	90.5%
Nolan Gorman	38.5%	40.7%	38.7%	63.9%
Nathan Church	41.3%	37.5%	7.1%	90.8%
Pedro Pagés	32.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see batter-vs-pitcher history and lineup chase rate.

Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-10	San Francisco Giants	2.9	1
2026-08-21	Cleveland Guardians	1.7	2
2026-08-26	Washington Nationals	1.5	5
2026-08-31	Baltimore Orioles	1	3
2026-09-06	St. Louis Cardinals	3.76	—

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see projection history and model reasoning.

Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 16.2%

!Whiff rate is 20.3%

!CSW rate is 25.7%

!Opponent K% is 20.2%

!Average pitch count is 62.8

!WHIP is 1.47

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see why this projection was made.

Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-08-31	Baltimore Orioles	Home	5	3	60	1.4	7	42.9%
2026-08-26	Washington Nationals	Away	7	5	90	1.43	14	35.7%
2026-08-21	Cleveland Guardians	Home	5.1	2	82	1.49	9	22.2%
2026-08-15	San Francisco Giants	Away	4	4	63	1.44	11	36.4%
2026-08-09	St. Louis Cardinals	Away	3.1	2	48	1.49	7	28.6%
2026-08-03	Tampa Bay Rays	Home	6	3	58	1.5	7	42.9%
2026-07-25	Milwaukee Brewers	Away	2	4	35	1.52	7	57.1%
2026-07-19	Cincinnati Reds	Home	5.2	2	66	1.52	8	25%
2026-07-10	San Francisco Giants	Away	5	1	81	1.61	8	12.5%
2026-07-05	San Francisco Giants	Home	5	7	94	1.59	14	50%