MLB pitcher strikeout

Kyle Leahy

@ Colorado Rockies2026-09-06DraftKingsRHP

Projection

4.9

Ensemble: 4.9

Market line

2.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+2.4

Over 2.5

90% (9/10)· 8O streak

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Recommendation

Over 2.5

DraftKings

Confidence

A+

92/100

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Pitcher K%

30.3%

Whiff%

27.1%

CSW%

30%

WHIP

1.33

Avg IP

Avg pitches

82.8

Last 5 avg Ks

5.4

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

24.5%

Team chase

36.4%

Recent chase

33.8%

Recent contact

76.6%

Recent K% (7d)

17.1%

Opp K% vs RHP

23.3%

Opp K% vs LHP

21.4%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

2.5

DraftKings

Model projection

4.9

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

90%

9 of 10 overs

Average Ks

5.1

Selected starts

Average margin

+2.6

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

90% (9/10)· 8O streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

2.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 2.5Model 4.9

Aug 29

vs PIT

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 23

@ PHI

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 18

@ CIN

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Aug 12

vs PHI

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Aug 7

vs COL

OVER

Strikeouts

+5.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

15.5

Selected line

Model projection

15.1

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Outs

14.4

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.1

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

30% (3/10)· 5U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

15.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 15.5Model 15.1

Aug 29

vs PIT

UNDER

Outs

-6.5

Aug 23

@ PHI

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

Aug 18

@ CIN

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 12

vs PHI

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 7

vs COL

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Colorado Rockies

No prior starts found against Colorado Rockies.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	3.5	+134	-172	+1.4	-1.4	—
DraftKings	2.5	-143	+112	+2.4	-2.4	Best Over
Pinnacle	3.5	+154	-209	+1.4	-1.4	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

82.9%

5+ Ks

64.6%

6+ Ks

44.8%

7+ Ks

26.6%

8+ Ks

13.3%

9+ Ks

5.6%

10+ Ks

2.1%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	23.3%	14.3%	9.8%	94.7
Curveball	17.2%	25.6%	15.6%	83.4
Slider	17.1%	26.4%	35.3%	89.5
Changeup	16%	23.1%	19%	89
Sweeper	14.3%	20.8%	17.3%	85
Sinker	12.2%	14.1%	28.3%	94.6

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

50.9%

2-Strike Foul%

22.7%

2-Strike Contact%

76.5%

Expected Ks

24.4

K Luck

+2.6

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	19	47.4%	52.6%
1-2	32	53.1%	46.9%
2-2	30	50%	50%
3-2 (full)	18	38.9%	61.1%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Curveball	Slider	Changeup	Sweeper	Sinker
Jake McCarthyL	16.3%	16.5%	16.7% vs R: 18%	6.4% vs R: 8.8%	27.3% vs R: 28.9%	16.7% vs R: 17.6%	13.2% vs R: 15.6%	22.7% vs R: 16%
Cole CarriggS	26.6%	17.9%	14.9% vs R: 22.2%	28.6% vs R: 14.3%	17.1% vs R: 13%	19.7% vs R: 12.2%	18.8% vs R: 25%	20.6% vs R: 19%
Hunter GoodmanR	36%	31%	29% vs R: 30.8%	30.6% vs R: 23.1%	26.6% vs R: 26%	23.9% vs R: 15.8%	29% vs R: 27.3%	19.6% vs R: 26.5%
TJ RumfieldL	12.7%	14.3%	11.9% vs R: 10.7%	15.8% vs R: 18.2%	18.8% vs R: 18.9%	11.1% vs R: 8.9%	13.4% vs R: 17.6%	13% vs R: 10.7%
Willi CastroS	26.2%	27.1%	18.2% vs R: 16.9%	17.7% vs R: 13.8%	27.1% vs R: 27%	21.3% vs R: 23.4%	30.4% vs R: 43.8%	25% vs R: 17.6%
Connor NorbyR	26%	31%	28.2% vs R: 32.1%	29.4% vs R: 33.3%	37.8% vs R: 36.1%	25% vs R: 37.5%	11.4% vs R: 12.9%	12.5% vs R: 8.7%
Brett SullivanL	11.5%	19.2%	23.2% vs R: 25.9%	20% vs R: 22.2%	7.4% vs R: 11.8%	25% vs R: 25%	23.5% vs R: 33.3%	5.3% vs R: 0%
Zac VeenL	—	37.1%	47.1% vs R: 46.7%	0% vs R: 0%	60%	20% vs R: 20%	—	33.3% vs R: 33.3%
Ezequiel TovarR	31.4%	22.6%	20.8% vs R: 19.2%	27.3% vs R: 30.4%	16% vs R: 14.1%	25% vs R: 28.6%	21.7% vs R: 19.2%	9.5% vs R: 13.3%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Curveball	Slider	Changeup	Sweeper	Sinker
Jake McCarthyL	11.2% vs R: 12.2%	20.3% vs R: 22.2%	34.4% vs R: 34.4%	25.2% vs R: 26%	27% vs R: 31.6%	11.6% vs R: 9.2%
Cole CarriggS	17.6% vs R: 19.4%	47.6% vs R: 53.3%	29.6% vs R: 27.3%	26.6% vs R: 23.6%	35% vs R: 55.6%	12.6% vs R: 10.2%
Hunter GoodmanR	28.6% vs R: 31.1%	40.9% vs R: 41.7%	39.2% vs R: 38.8%	38.1% vs R: 27.3%	46% vs R: 44.9%	18.8% vs R: 17.9%
TJ RumfieldL	10.8% vs R: 10.2%	28.1% vs R: 30%	34.5% vs R: 36.5%	18.8% vs R: 18.3%	23.3% vs R: 25%	5.9% vs R: 4.3%
Willi CastroS	24.2% vs R: 25.3%	29.2% vs R: 29.3%	33.7% vs R: 40.4%	32.4% vs R: 36%	28.6% vs R: 42.1%	20.9% vs R: 13.2%
Connor NorbyR	30.4% vs R: 36.7%	54.5% vs R: 55.6%	44.8% vs R: 48.5%	36.1% vs R: 28.6%	30% vs R: 32.5%	9.9% vs R: 8%
Brett SullivanL	11.3% vs R: 11.5%	16.7% vs R: 20%	18.2% vs R: 23.8%	23.1% vs R: 22.9%	21.4% vs R: 20%	12.5% vs R: 3.7%
Zac VeenL	53.6% vs R: 53.8%	0% vs R: 0%	36.4%	50% vs R: 50%	—	50% vs R: 60%
Ezequiel TovarR	22% vs R: 23.1%	32.5% vs R: 34.6%	28.8% vs R: 28.1%	37.2% vs R: 40%	37.3% vs R: 38.8%	10.5% vs R: 10.4%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Hunter Goodman	6	6	100%	.000
Ezequiel Tovar	4	2	50%	.250
Jake McCarthy	3	0	0%	1.000
Cole Carrigg	3	1	33.3%	.000
Willi Castro	3	0	0%	.667
TJ Rumfield	2	0	0%	1.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Jake McCarthy	40.7%	39.2%	13.8%	83.3%
Cole Carrigg	34.8%	36.5%	24.4%	75.6%
Hunter Goodman	39.8%	39.8%	29.2%	68.7%
TJ Rumfield	28.6%	20.3%	7.4%	87%
Willi Castro	37.3%	40%	25.7%	69.6%
Connor Norby	29.5%	25.6%	20.8%	77.3%
Brett Sullivan	29.1%	26.9%	18.8%	92%
Zac Veen	43.3%	39.2%	33.3%	61.7%
Ezequiel Tovar	44.1%	36.7%	32.1%	74.6%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-10	Atlanta Braves	3.3	2
2026-07-20	Los Angeles Angels	3.3	4
2026-07-26	Cincinnati Reds	5.1	9
2026-07-31	Toronto Blue Jays	3.9	3
2026-08-07	Colorado Rockies	5.1	8
2026-08-12	Philadelphia Phillies	4.1	6
2026-08-18	Cincinnati Reds	5.4	6
2026-08-23	Philadelphia Phillies	6.2	4
2026-08-29	Pittsburgh Pirates	5.8	3
2026-09-06	Colorado Rockies	4.9	—

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

✓Pitcher K% is 30.3%

!Whiff rate is 27.1%

✓CSW rate is 30%

✓Opponent K% is 23.1%

!Average pitch count is 82.8

!WHIP is 1.33

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-08-29	Pittsburgh Pirates	Home	3	3	51	1.31	6	50%
2026-08-23	Philadelphia Phillies	Away	4	4	63	1.3	9	44.4%
2026-08-18	Cincinnati Reds	Away	5	6	90	1.31	14	42.9%
2026-08-12	Philadelphia Phillies	Home	5	6	81	1.34	12	50%
2026-08-07	Colorado Rockies	Home	5	8	82	1.34	12	66.7%
2026-07-31	Toronto Blue Jays	Away	6	3	98	1.33	13	23.1%
2026-07-26	Cincinnati Reds	Home	6	9	102	1.34	18	50%
2026-07-20	Los Angeles Angels	Away	6	4	95	1.35	13	30.8%
2026-07-10	Atlanta Braves	Home	3	2	44	1.41	4	50%
2026-07-04	Chicago Cubs	Away	5	6	77	1.45	10	60%