MLB pitcher strikeout

Spencer Arrighetti

@ Kansas City Royals2026-09-06FanDuelRHP

Projection

4.1

Ensemble: 4.1

Market line

3.5

FanDuel

Model edge

+0.6

Over 3.5

70% (7/10)· 1U streak

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Recommendation

Over 3.5

FanDuel

Confidence

B+

70/100

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Pitcher K%

20.3%

Whiff%

23.3%

CSW%

28.1%

WHIP

1.32

Avg IP

3.8

Avg pitches

72.5

Last 5 avg Ks

3.2

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

23.2%

Team chase

31.8%

Recent chase

30.1%

Recent contact

80.2%

Recent K% (7d)

15.1%

Opp K% vs RHP

18.7%

Opp K% vs LHP

20.7%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

FanDuel

Model projection

4.1

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

70%

7 of 10 overs

Average Ks

4.4

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.9

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

70% (7/10)· 1U streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 4.1

Sep 1

@ CLE

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 27

vs KC

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 21

@ NYY

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Jul 24

@ CWS

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Jul 18

vs BAL

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

14.5

DraftKings

Model projection

14.1

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Outs

12.6

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.9

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

40% (4/10)· 4U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

14.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 14.5Model 14.1

Sep 1

@ CLE

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

Aug 27

vs KC

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 21

@ NYY

UNDER

Outs

-4.5

Jul 24

@ CWS

UNDER

Outs

-11.5

Jul 18

vs BAL

OVER

Outs

+0.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Kansas City Royals

No prior starts found against Kansas City Royals.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	3.5	-122	-104	+0.6	-0.6	Best Over
DraftKings	3.5	-147	+115	+0.6	-0.6	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

66.5%Line

5+ Ks

44.7%

6+ Ks

25.4%

7+ Ks

12.3%

8+ Ks

9+ Ks

1.7%

10+ Ks

0.5%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Curveball	33%	34.9%	24.2%	76.6
4-Seam Fastball	28.9%	21.5%	18.6%	92.3
Sweeper	10.6%	29.4%	28%	80.5
Sinker	10.4%	13.5%	20%	92.1
Cutter	8%	5.9%	28.6%	88.1
Changeup	7.4%	18.5%	7.7%	84.3
Slider	1.7%	25%	0%	82.3

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

37.2%

2-Strike Foul%

22.5%

2-Strike Contact%

76%

Expected Ks

19.7

K Luck

-3.7

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	14	50%	50%
1-2	21	42.9%	57.1%
2-2	21	33.3%	61.9%
3-2 (full)	13	15.4%	84.6%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Curveball	4-Seam Fastball	Sweeper	Sinker	Cutter	Changeup	Slider
Carter JensenL	29.6%	27.8%	27.3% vs R: 23.5%	24.6% vs R: 22.3%	22.6% vs R: 25.6%	24.2% vs R: 14.3%	32.3% vs R: 36%	17.3% vs R: 20%	25.6% vs R: 25.5%
Bobby Witt Jr.R	13.5%	18.4%	10.3% vs R: 8%	16.4% vs R: 16.4%	25% vs R: 27.1%	20.3% vs R: 24%	15% vs R: 15.6%	8% vs R: 0%	21.5% vs R: 21.3%
Jac CaglianoneL	29%	24.3%	21.3% vs R: 17.5%	31.5% vs R: 28.3%	24.6% vs R: 18.2%	18.6% vs R: 27.6%	22.2% vs R: 25%	19.4% vs R: 20.4%	27.3% vs R: 29.3%
Salvador PerezR	18.8%	19.8%	12.7% vs R: 15%	17% vs R: 15.5%	17.3% vs R: 18%	3.1% vs R: 4.2%	16.3% vs R: 17.9%	19.7% vs R: 26.1%	15.7% vs R: 14.2%
Vinnie PasquantinoL	20.5%	13.9%	8% vs R: 3.2%	17% vs R: 15.9%	4.8% vs R: 7.7%	14% vs R: 13.3%	9.1% vs R: 10.5%	15.7% vs R: 11.7%	15.5% vs R: 13.2%
Nick LoftinR	15.3%	16.6%	34.8% vs R: 33.3%	13% vs R: 13.8%	27% vs R: 8.7%	18.9% vs R: 28%	0% vs R: 0%	13.9% vs R: 21.4%	20.3% vs R: 23.8%
John RaveL	16%	21.9%	16.7% vs R: 0%	12% vs R: 12.5%	0% vs R: 0%	40% vs R: 25%	22.2% vs R: 28.6%	42.9% vs R: 54.5%	20% vs R: 28.6%
Isaac CollinsS	21.4%	22.5%	17.5% vs R: 15.4%	18.4% vs R: 15.6%	20% vs R: 30%	12.5% vs R: 14.3%	17.6% vs R: 12%	25.3% vs R: 25%	26.7% vs R: 29.7%
Kyle IsbelL	23.1%	22.1%	23.1% vs R: 27.3%	19.6% vs R: 17.3%	32.3% vs R: 35.3%	38.9% vs R: 33.3%	27.3% vs R: 27.3%	24.4% vs R: 27.3%	20.8% vs R: 21.1%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Curveball	4-Seam Fastball	Sweeper	Sinker	Cutter	Changeup	Slider
Carter JensenL	22.8% vs R: 25.5%	26.8% vs R: 26.4%	30% vs R: 28.3%	12.4% vs R: 17.9%	32.4% vs R: 32.7%	25.8% vs R: 25.8%	31% vs R: 25%
Bobby Witt Jr.R	9.8% vs R: 5.9%	17.4% vs R: 17.1%	35.4% vs R: 36.8%	11.5% vs R: 11.1%	25% vs R: 27.8%	20% vs R: 7.4%	36% vs R: 37.4%
Jac CaglianoneL	33% vs R: 32.4%	25.4% vs R: 23.9%	34.4% vs R: 14.3%	15.3% vs R: 16%	17.3% vs R: 15.4%	27.6% vs R: 29.6%	38.3% vs R: 42.9%
Salvador PerezR	23.7% vs R: 25.5%	19.5% vs R: 19%	32.1% vs R: 33.3%	8.5% vs R: 6.1%	24.8% vs R: 25.5%	23.4% vs R: 30.2%	31.8% vs R: 31.7%
Vinnie PasquantinoL	17% vs R: 12.1%	7.3% vs R: 5.9%	26.3% vs R: 14.3%	4.9% vs R: 4.1%	15.3% vs R: 15.4%	26% vs R: 23.6%	20.5% vs R: 22.7%
Nick LoftinR	37.5% vs R: 41.7%	5% vs R: 3.1%	30.8% vs R: 20%	4.9% vs R: 7%	16.7% vs R: 24.2%	24.2% vs R: 20%	26.5% vs R: 30.5%
John RaveL	22.2% vs R: 14.3%	10.9% vs R: 15.8%	0% vs R: 0%	16.7% vs R: 15.4%	19% vs R: 18.8%	42.9% vs R: 45%	23.5% vs R: 27.3%
Isaac CollinsS	34.3% vs R: 30.4%	11.9% vs R: 10.5%	20% vs R: 27.3%	5.5% vs R: 6.7%	16.1% vs R: 16.7%	35.6% vs R: 31.8%	28.9% vs R: 34.5%
Kyle IsbelL	30.3% vs R: 32.3%	8.3% vs R: 7.8%	14.3% vs R: 18.2%	7% vs R: 3.2%	12.5% vs R: 14.3%	21.8% vs R: 23.4%	29.5% vs R: 27.6%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Bobby Witt Jr.	8	1	12.5%	.429
Salvador Perez	7	2	28.6%	.143
Carter Jensen	6	1	16.7%	.500
Jac Caglianone	5	2	40%	.600
Vinnie Pasquantino	4	1	25%	.333
Isaac Collins	4	1	25%	.000
Kyle Isbel	4	2	50%	.250
John Rave	2	0	0%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Carter Jensen	21.2%	14.7%	21.6%	75%
Bobby Witt Jr.	32.1%	30.7%	12.2%	78.8%
Jac Caglianone	44.4%	44.7%	22%	70.1%
Salvador Perez	44.8%	39.3%	19.1%	76.5%
Vinnie Pasquantino	29.9%	26.3%	9.1%	84.1%
Nick Loftin	27.1%	34.8%	25%	78.5%
John Rave	25.3%	17%	17.9%	85%
Isaac Collins	23.9%	25%	19.4%	86.3%
Kyle Isbel	37.6%	38.5%	26.5%	87.3%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-08	Washington Nationals	5	2
2026-07-18	Baltimore Orioles	5.5	6
2026-07-24	Chicago White Sox	5	0
2026-09-06	Kansas City Royals	4.06	—

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 20.3%

!Whiff rate is 23.3%

!CSW rate is 28.1%

!Opponent K% is 21.1%

!Average pitch count is 72.5

!WHIP is 1.32

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-01	Cleveland Guardians	Away	3.2	2	62	1.34	8	25%
2026-08-27	Kansas City Royals	Home	4	4	79	1.36	10	40%
2026-08-21	New York Yankees	Away	3.1	4	61	1.35	8	50%
2026-07-24	Chicago White Sox	Away	1	0	33	1.34	4	0%
2026-07-18	Baltimore Orioles	Home	5	6	85	1.31	13	46.2%
2026-07-08	Washington Nationals	Away	4	2	94	1.33	8	25%
2026-07-03	Tampa Bay Rays	Home	6	4	73	1.23	8	50%
2026-06-26	Detroit Tigers	Away	3	7	93	1.29	13	53.8%
2026-06-20	Cleveland Guardians	Home	6	8	90	1.2	14	57.1%
2026-06-14	Kansas City Royals	Away	6	7	101	1.22	12	58.3%