MLB pitcher strikeout

Justin Wrobleski

vs Washington Nationals2026-09-06FanDuelLHP

Projection

4.8

Ensemble: 4.7

Market line

4.5

FanDuel

Model edge

+0.3

Over 4.5

60% (6/10)· 1U streak

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see this pitcher's projection, market line, and model edge.

Recommendation

Over 4.5

FanDuel

Confidence

B+

78/100

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see this pitcher's recommendation and confidence grade.

Pitcher K%

23.5%

Whiff%

23%

CSW%

30.1%

WHIP

1.06

Avg IP

5.2

Avg pitches

88.1

Last 5 avg Ks

4.8

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

25.9%

Team chase

31.6%

Recent chase

31.9%

Recent contact

76.8%

Recent K% (7d)

26.3%

Opp K% vs RHP

20.5%

Opp K% vs LHP

23.1%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see matchup-specific stats.

Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

4.5

FanDuel

Model projection

4.8

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Ks

5.9

Selected starts

Average margin

+1.4

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

60% (6/10)· 1U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

4.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 4.5Model 4.8

Sep 1

vs STL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 15

vs MIL

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 9

@ ARI

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 3

@ CHC

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Jul 28

vs SEA

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

13.5

DraftKings

Model projection

13.3

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

70%

7 of 10 overs

Average Outs

16.5

Selected starts

Average margin

+3.0

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

70% (7/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

13.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 13.5Model 13.3

Sep 1

vs STL

UNDER

Outs

-7.5

Aug 15

vs MIL

OVER

Outs

+4.5

Aug 9

@ ARI

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

Aug 3

@ CHC

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Jul 28

vs SEA

OVER

Outs

+4.5

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see projection history vs. results.

Analytics

Career vs. Washington Nationals

No prior starts found against Washington Nationals.

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see career history vs. today's opponent.

Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	4.5	+124	-160	+0.3	-0.3	Best Over
DraftKings	4.5	+117	-149	+0.3	-0.3	—

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see sportsbook lines and edges.

Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

71.2%

5+ Ks

49.9%Line

6+ Ks

29.5%

7+ Ks

15.4%

8+ Ks

6.5%

9+ Ks

2.2%

10+ Ks

0.6%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see this pitcher's strikeout ladder.

Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	48.7%	25.9%	23.6%	95.2
Slider	22.6%	21.4%	23.2%	87.2
Sinker	10.2%	10%	33.3%	94
Changeup	7%	19.2%	10.5%	84.8
Sweeper	5.8%	4.5%	8.6%	85.3
Curveball	3.8%	6.2%	0%	76.2
Cutter	1.9%	18.2%	0%	90.8

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

42.1%

2-Strike Foul%

25%

2-Strike Contact%

74.7%

Expected Ks

25.9

K Luck

-1.9

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	24	50%	50%
1-2	27	29.6%	70.4%
2-2	29	31%	69%
3-2 (full)	16	25%	75%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Sinker	Changeup	Sweeper	Curveball	Cutter
CJ AbramsL	31.3%	20.7%	15.3% vs L: 24.4%	24.2% vs L: 28.1%	16% vs L: 17.2%	22.7% vs L: 36.8%	24.2% vs L: 20%	26.6% vs L: 31.2%	30% vs L: 44.4%
Abimelec OrtizL	62.5%	20.2%	15.6%	19%	0%	23.5%	15%	33.3%	0%
Dylan CrewsR	22.6%	25.5%	17.8% vs L: 24.4%	27.9% vs L: 25%	23.2% vs L: 16%	34.1% vs L: 12.5%	18.8% vs L: 0%	29.4% vs L: 22.2%	15.4% vs L: 10%
Daylen LileL	23.1%	17.7%	16.8% vs L: 16.7%	31.5% vs L: 37.1%	11.6% vs L: 0%	10.2% vs L: 9.1%	13.2% vs L: 18.4%	20.4% vs L: 45.5%	12.8% vs L: 0%
Brady HouseR	24.4%	28.2%	30.7% vs L: 25.7%	24.1% vs L: 16.7%	21.4% vs L: 20%	19.4% vs L: 16%	14% vs L: 8.3%	30% vs L: 33.3%	14.3% vs L: 40%
Jorbit VivasL	7.5%	14.1%	8.2% vs L: 25%	13% vs L: 0%	11.4% vs L: 14.3%	21.4% vs L: 0%	15% vs L: 0%	19%	11.1% vs L: 33.3%
Harry FordR	31%	20.4%	16.3% vs L: 21.7%	15.8% vs L: 33.3%	27.3% vs L: 50%	8.3% vs L: 0%	0%	27.3% vs L: 42.9%	—
Nasim NuñezS	18.4%	21.3%	12.7% vs L: 10%	18.1% vs L: 12.5%	14.8% vs L: 7.1%	20.2% vs L: 24.1%	4.2% vs L: 7.1%	19.2% vs L: 33.3%	24% vs L: 28.6%
Jacob YoungR	15.5%	17.3%	20.2% vs L: 20.5%	14.7% vs L: 17.6%	15.9% vs L: 4.5%	9.1% vs L: 9.7%	21.2% vs L: 30.8%	11.1% vs L: 0%	12% vs L: 25%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see the lineup-vs-arsenal matchup breakdown.

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Sinker	Changeup	Sweeper	Curveball	Cutter
CJ AbramsL	23% vs L: 25%	35.4% vs L: 41.2%	10.5% vs L: 11.4%	30.8% vs L: 44%	31.4% vs L: 35.6%	39.8% vs L: 44.4%	22% vs L: 40%
Abimelec OrtizL	21.6%	29.4%	4%	26.1%	15%	33.3%	22.2%
Dylan CrewsR	22.4% vs L: 28.8%	53% vs L: 50%	8.8% vs L: 7.7%	45% vs L: 32.1%	37.5% vs L: 25%	45.5% vs L: 46.2%	25% vs L: 14.3%
Daylen LileL	20.5% vs L: 27.1%	27.8% vs L: 27.4%	11.8% vs L: 7.5%	21.1% vs L: 22.2%	24.7% vs L: 34%	25.8% vs L: 40%	19.6% vs L: 18.8%
Brady HouseR	27% vs L: 28.3%	37.8% vs L: 20%	13.6% vs L: 16.7%	43.1% vs L: 46.2%	27.4% vs L: 19%	35% vs L: 37.5%	34.9% vs L: 55.6%
Jorbit VivasL	7.2% vs L: 22.2%	17.6% vs L: 0%	6.2% vs L: 8%	37% vs L: 42.9%	18.5% vs L: 0%	30.3%	6.7% vs L: 14.3%
Harry FordR	25.7% vs L: 29.7%	34.8% vs L: 50%	18.5% vs L: 0%	22.2% vs L: 22.2%	12.5%	40% vs L: 50%	12.5%
Nasim NuñezS	16.6% vs L: 13.6%	26.2% vs L: 19.2%	10.3% vs L: 0%	25.2% vs L: 29.5%	14.6% vs L: 9.1%	24.4% vs L: 41.7%	24.1% vs L: 29.4%
Jacob YoungR	14% vs L: 16.7%	27.1% vs L: 26.3%	8.1% vs L: 10.5%	28.4% vs L: 27.3%	31% vs L: 33.3%	26.9% vs L: 12.5%	23% vs L: 22.7%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see the lineup-vs-arsenal whiff matchup breakdown.

Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Dylan Crews	3	0	0%	.667
Jacob Young	2	0	0%	1.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
CJ Abrams	38.5%	32.3%	36.7%	64.1%
Abimelec Ortiz	38.1%	42.2%	28.2%	78.8%
Dylan Crews	31.4%	32.7%	33.3%	70.5%
Daylen Lile	39.7%	25.5%	14%	82.7%
Brady House	34.3%	30.1%	15%	84.5%
Jorbit Vivas	29.4%	29.1%	8.1%	85.2%
Harry Ford	19%	29.8%	18.5%	75.9%
Nasim Nuñez	25.7%	41.3%	19.4%	70.5%
Jacob Young	27.9%	24.2%	12.9%	79.2%

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see batter-vs-pitcher history and lineup chase rate.

Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-07	Colorado Rockies	4	9
2026-07-21	Philadelphia Phillies	7.1	7
2026-07-28	Seattle Mariners	6.1	7
2026-08-03	Chicago Cubs	5.8	4
2026-08-09	Arizona Diamondbacks	5.8	3
2026-08-15	Milwaukee Brewers	5.8	6
2026-09-06	Washington Nationals	4.75	—

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see projection history and model reasoning.

Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 23.5%

!Whiff rate is 23%

✓CSW rate is 30.1%

!Opponent K% is 21.1%

!Average pitch count is 88.1

✓WHIP is 1.06

Unlock the full board

Create a free account to see why this projection was made.

Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-01	St. Louis Cardinals	Home	2	4	36	1.11	5	80%
2026-08-15	Milwaukee Brewers	Home	6	6	107	1.1	17	35.3%
2026-08-09	Arizona Diamondbacks	Away	3.1	3	76	1.11	6	50%
2026-08-03	Chicago Cubs	Away	4.1	4	91	1.07	12	33.3%
2026-07-28	Seattle Mariners	Home	6	7	102	1.02	17	41.2%
2026-07-21	Philadelphia Phillies	Away	6.1	7	89	1.01	13	53.8%
2026-07-07	Colorado Rockies	Home	7	9	94	1.02	14	64.3%
2026-06-30	Athletics	Away	7	11	110	1.01	17	64.7%
2026-06-23	Minnesota Twins	Away	7	3	92	1.01	11	27.3%
2026-06-16	Tampa Bay Rays	Home	6	5	67	1.01	9	55.6%