MLB pitcher strikeout

Kyle Bradish

vs Boston Red Sox2026-09-06DraftKingsRHP

Projection

4.7

Ensemble: 4.7

Market line

4.5

DraftKings

Model edge

No qualifying edge

30% (3/10)· 2U streak

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Recommendation

No recommendation

Confidence

B+

75/100

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Pitcher K%

16.7%

Whiff%

20.1%

CSW%

24.9%

WHIP

1.37

Avg IP

5.1

Avg pitches

Last 5 avg Ks

4.0

Games logged

Matchup K%

28.6%

Platoon K%

21.6%

Team chase

31.9%

Recent chase

35.5%

Recent contact

75.4%

Recent K% (7d)

23.2%

Opp K% vs RHP

23.8%

Opp K% vs LHP

19.3%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

4.5

DraftKings

Model projection

4.7

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Ks

4.1

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.4

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

30% (3/10)· 2U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

4.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 4.5Model 4.7

Sep 1

@ COL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 26

@ STL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 20

vs NYY

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 15

@ TB

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 8

@ TEX

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

16.5

FanDuel

Model projection

16.4

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Outs

16.5

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.0

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

60% (6/10)· 2U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

16.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 16.5Model 16.4

Sep 1

@ COL

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Aug 26

@ STL

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

Aug 20

vs NYY

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 15

@ TB

OVER

Outs

+1.5

Aug 8

@ TEX

OVER

Outs

+1.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Boston Red Sox

No prior starts found against Boston Red Sox.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	4.5	-136	+107	+0.2	-0.2	—
FanDuel	4.5	-128	+100	+0.2	-0.2	—
Pinnacle	4.5	-128	+100	+0.2	-0.2	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

71.6%

5+ Ks

51.5%Line

6+ Ks

31.7%

7+ Ks

16.9%

8+ Ks

7.7%

9+ Ks

2.8%

10+ Ks

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Sinker	41.2%	10.7%	20.1%	94.8
Slider	21.8%	39%	16.5%	88
Curveball	20.9%	29.4%	14.7%	85.4
4-Seam Fastball	15%	13%	20.7%	94.4
Changeup	1.1%	—	0%	90.4

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

35.1%

2-Strike Foul%

31.5%

2-Strike Contact%

85.2%

Expected Ks

23.8

K Luck

-3.8

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	18	33.3%	66.7%
1-2	30	36.7%	60%
2-2	33	36.4%	63.6%
3-2 (full)	19	21.1%	78.9%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Sinker	Slider	Curveball	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup
Roman AnthonyL	21.4%	25.4%	35% vs R: 50%	23.8% vs R: 25%	42.1% vs R: 31.2%	8.7% vs R: 9.3%	27.8% vs R: 31.2%
Ceddanne RafaelaR	24.2%	18.8%	18.8% vs R: 19.7%	10.5% vs R: 7.4%	14.8% vs R: 14.3%	19.5% vs R: 18.5%	16.9% vs R: 20.6%
Wilyer AbreuL	17%	21.8%	7% vs R: 11.9%	18% vs R: 20%	13.2% vs R: 17.1%	17.9% vs R: 18.2%	26.1% vs R: 29.1%
Willson ContrerasR	19.9%	27.2%	12% vs R: 14%	30.1% vs R: 29%	26.2% vs R: 28.6%	18.2% vs R: 18.1%	25.3% vs R: 29.5%
Nick SogardS	19%	17.4%	22.2% vs R: 23.1%	23.1% vs R: 18.8%	14.3% vs R: 16.7%	15.4% vs R: 12.8%	12.5% vs R: 14.7%
Caleb DurbinR	13.2%	13.9%	12.8% vs R: 14.1%	10.3% vs R: 10.7%	4.5% vs R: 7.7%	19.7% vs R: 20.2%	13% vs R: 16%
Jarren DuranL	23.7%	28.6%	12.2% vs R: 10.7%	35.8% vs R: 35%	18% vs R: 20%	25.4% vs R: 23.6%	22% vs R: 22.4%
Trevor StoryR	34%	31.5%	20.8% vs R: 27.8%	23.5% vs R: 20.8%	34.8% vs R: 42.9%	28.9% vs R: 28.8%	23.1% vs R: 27.3%
Connor WongR	13.8%	27.8%	27.6% vs R: 26.9%	13.7% vs R: 13.6%	10% vs R: 14.3%	20% vs R: 22%	34.6% vs R: 40%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Sinker	Slider	Curveball	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup
Roman AnthonyL	16.3% vs R: 23.5%	29% vs R: 31.8%	64.7% vs R: 61.5%	9.7% vs R: 11.3%	38.7% vs R: 40%
Ceddanne RafaelaR	11.6% vs R: 10.8%	25.7% vs R: 25.7%	28.2% vs R: 32.7%	24% vs R: 22.4%	24.4% vs R: 24%
Wilyer AbreuL	13.6% vs R: 14.9%	28.7% vs R: 30.3%	14.8% vs R: 15.9%	22% vs R: 20.6%	32.7% vs R: 33.6%
Willson ContrerasR	9.7% vs R: 10.4%	45.6% vs R: 44.5%	31.7% vs R: 28.6%	25.2% vs R: 23.8%	38.3% vs R: 42.6%
Nick SogardS	13.9% vs R: 13.3%	31.6% vs R: 30.8%	21.4% vs R: 20%	9.9% vs R: 8.2%	24.1% vs R: 26.2%
Caleb DurbinR	6.7% vs R: 6.8%	22.8% vs R: 23.1%	14.8% vs R: 12.5%	12.7% vs R: 14.2%	30.9% vs R: 23.8%
Jarren DuranL	13% vs R: 14.3%	40.5% vs R: 42%	35.5% vs R: 37.9%	27.5% vs R: 25.6%	35.2% vs R: 35.5%
Trevor StoryR	15.2% vs R: 15.4%	26.4% vs R: 28.2%	39.3% vs R: 40%	26.3% vs R: 27.1%	47.5% vs R: 58.3%
Connor WongR	7.6% vs R: 6.6%	32.3% vs R: 32.7%	5% vs R: 6.7%	10.9% vs R: 14.7%	51.5% vs R: 46.2%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Jarren Duran	13	5	38.5%	.154
Trevor Story	12	6	50%	.083
Willson Contreras	9	0	0%	.500
Connor Wong	8	1	12.5%	.400
Ceddanne Rafaela	7	2	28.6%	.143
Roman Anthony	6	3	50%	.200
Wilyer Abreu	6	3	50%	.000
Caleb Durbin	4	0	0%	.333

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Roman Anthony	22.4%	22.4%	26.5%	78.2%
Ceddanne Rafaela	51.1%	59.7%	21.4%	76%
Wilyer Abreu	30.8%	33.3%	24.1%	73.8%
Willson Contreras	34.9%	37.9%	26.9%	74.4%
Nick Sogard	22.7%	29.1%	19.6%	78.8%
Caleb Durbin	28.8%	25.9%	17.8%	77.3%
Jarren Duran	35.2%	31.8%	24.4%	69.9%
Trevor Story	N/A	46.2%	32%	70.8%
Connor Wong	29.3%	33.3%	24.1%	79.6%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-11	Kansas City Royals	6.1	5
2026-07-21	Boston Red Sox	6.4	—
2026-07-22	Boston Red Sox	6.1	4
2026-07-27	Detroit Tigers	5.1	4
2026-08-02	Philadelphia Phillies	5.3	3
2026-08-08	Texas Rangers	4.7	4
2026-08-15	Tampa Bay Rays	3	3
2026-08-20	New York Yankees	3	5
2026-08-26	St. Louis Cardinals	3.1	4
2026-09-01	Colorado Rockies	3.6	4
2026-09-06	Boston Red Sox	4.7	—

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 16.7%

!Whiff rate is 20.1%

!CSW rate is 24.9%

!Opponent K% is 22.3%

!Average pitch count is 89

!WHIP is 1.37

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-01	Colorado Rockies	Away	5	4	95	1.42	12	33.3%
2026-08-26	St. Louis Cardinals	Away	4.1	4	91	1.41	12	33.3%
2026-08-20	New York Yankees	Home	5.2	5	100	1.38	12	41.7%
2026-08-15	Tampa Bay Rays	Away	6	3	93	1.36	7	42.9%
2026-08-08	Texas Rangers	Away	6	4	98	1.34	14	28.6%
2026-08-02	Philadelphia Phillies	Home	3	3	53	1.36	6	50%
2026-07-27	Detroit Tigers	Away	4.2	4	93	1.36	14	28.6%
2026-07-22	Boston Red Sox	Away	6	4	89	1.32	13	30.8%
2026-07-11	Kansas City Royals	Home	6.2	5	96	1.35	12	41.7%
2026-07-05	Cincinnati Reds	Away	7.2	5	106	1.4	13	38.5%