MLB pitcher strikeout
JP Sears
Projection
2.5
Model strikeouts
Market line
3.5
BetMGM
Model edge
+1.0
Under 3.5
Recommendation
Under 3.5
BetMGM
Confidence
B+
75/100
Pitcher K%
19.2%
Whiff%
20.9%
CSW%
24.3%
WHIP
1.41
Avg IP
4.9
Avg pitches
75.8
Last 5 avg Ks
4.0
Games logged
5
Matchup K%
12.2%
Platoon K%
20.2%
Team chase
34.1%
Recent chase
33.4%
Recent contact
78.1%
Prop performance terminal
STRIKEOUT RESULTS
Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.
Market line
3.5
BetMGM
Model projection
2.5
Expected strikeouts
Hit rate
60%
3 of 5 overs
Average Ks
4.0
Selected starts
Average margin
+0.5
Vs selected line
Current streak
2
UNDER
Interactive line simulator
Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.
Active line
3.5
Over
3
Under
2
Push
0
Jul 20
Atlanta Braves
Strikeouts
3
-0.5
Jul 10
Toronto Blue Jays
Strikeouts
3
-0.5
Jul 5
Los Angeles Dodgers
Strikeouts
5
+1.5
Jun 30
Chicago Cubs
Strikeouts
4
+0.5
Jun 24
Atlanta Braves
Strikeouts
5
+1.5
Analytics
Sportsbook Lines
| Book | Line | Over odds | Under odds | Over edge | Under edge | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 3.5 | -105 | -130 | -1.0 | +1.0 | Best Under |
| Bovada | 3.5 | -160 | +120 | -1.0 | +1.0 | — |
| Caesars | 3.5 | -157 | -- | -1.0 | +1.0 | — |
| DraftKings | 3.5 | -105 | -125 | -1.0 | +1.0 | — |
| ESPN BET | 3.5 | -110 | -125 | -1.0 | +1.0 | — |
| FanDuel | 3.5 | -150 | -- | -1.0 | +1.0 | — |
Analytics
Batter vs. Pitcher History
| Batter | PA | K | K% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mauricio Dubón | 22 | 1 | 4.5% |
| Austin Riley | 14 | 2 | 14.3% |
| Ozzie Albies | 13 | 0 | 0% |
| Matt Olson | 13 | 5 | 38.5% |
| Michael Harris II | 12 | 1 | 8.3% |
| Eli White | 5 | 3 | 60% |
| Joey Bart | 3 | 0 | 0% |
| Drake Baldwin | 2 | 0 | 0% |
Analytics
Lineup Chase Rate
| Batter | Chase rate | Recent chase | Recent K% | Recent contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drake Baldwin | 32.4% | 25% | 12.2% | 85.2% |
| Ozzie Albies | 38.1% | 42.1% | 24.4% | 79.8% |
| Matt Olson | 27.6% | 29.3% | 35% | 71.4% |
| Austin Riley | 33.2% | 26.9% | 25% | 75.4% |
| Michael Harris II | 46.2% | 40% | 16.7% | 84.5% |
| Mauricio Dubón | 39.1% | 47.3% | 20.5% | 83.9% |
| Joey Bart | 29.5% | 28.6% | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Jim Jarvis | 31% | 25.4% | 17.9% | 88% |
| Eli White | 30% | 36.1% | N/A | 68% |
Analytics
Projection History
| Date | Opponent | Projected | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Toronto Blue Jays | 1.7 | 3 |
| 2026-07-20 | Atlanta Braves | 2.5 | 3 |
Analytics
Why This Projection?
Analytics
Last 10 Starts
| Date | Opponent | H/A | IP | Ks | Pitches | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Atlanta Braves | Away | 5 | 3 | 55 | 1.26 |
| 2026-07-10 | Toronto Blue Jays | Home | 4.1 | 3 | 72 | 1.42 |
| 2026-07-05 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Away | 5 | 5 | 76 | 1.37 |
| 2026-06-30 | Chicago Cubs | Away | 4.2 | 4 | 95 | 1.74 |
| 2026-06-24 | Atlanta Braves | Home | 5.2 | 5 | 81 | 1.24 |