MLB pitcher strikeout

Andrew Alvarez

@ Los Angeles Dodgers2026-09-06FanDuelLHP

Projection

4.2

Ensemble: 4.2

Market line

3.5

FanDuel

Model edge

+0.7

Over 3.5

50% (5/10)· 4O streak

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Recommendation

Over 3.5

FanDuel

Confidence

B+

70/100

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Pitcher K%

21.7%

Whiff%

21.8%

CSW%

28.8%

WHIP

1.4

Avg IP

5.2

Avg pitches

79.2

Last 5 avg Ks

4.6

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

20.8%

Team chase

28.6%

Recent chase

25.9%

Recent contact

75%

Recent K% (7d)

17.3%

Opp K% vs RHP

20.3%

Opp K% vs LHP

21.2%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

FanDuel

Model projection

4.2

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Ks

3.8

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

50% (5/10)· 4O streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 4.2

Aug 30

vs MIA

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Aug 25

vs COL

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Aug 20

@ TEX

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 14

@ NYM

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 8

vs CIN

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

14.5

DraftKings

Model projection

15.1

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Outs

14.8

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

60% (6/10)· 1O streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

14.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 14.5Model 15.1

Aug 30

vs MIA

OVER

Outs

+3.5

Aug 25

vs COL

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 20

@ TEX

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 14

@ NYM

OVER

Outs

+2.5

Aug 8

vs CIN

OVER

Outs

+1.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

No prior starts found against Los Angeles Dodgers.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	3.5	+106	-136	+0.7	-0.7	Best Over
DraftKings	3.5	+136	-175	+0.7	-0.7	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

67%Line

5+ Ks

45.7%

6+ Ks

26.7%

7+ Ks

13.3%

8+ Ks

5.6%

9+ Ks

1.9%

10+ Ks

0.6%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Curveball	30.4%	31.1%	24.8%	82.7
4-Seam Fastball	29.5%	10.1%	14.9%	92.2
Slider	18.9%	32.1%	18.5%	84.2
Sinker	15.7%	14.5%	30%	91.7
Changeup	5.6%	30.8%	0%	86.3

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

46%

2-Strike Foul%

20.9%

2-Strike Contact%

72.1%

Expected Ks

22.4

K Luck

+0.6

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	19	42.1%	57.9%
1-2	32	46.9%	53.1%
2-2	23	47.8%	52.2%
3-2 (full)	13	38.5%	61.5%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Curveball	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Sinker	Changeup
Shohei OhtaniL	24.5%	23.7%	26.7% vs L: 25%	23.2% vs L: 33.3%	22.7% vs L: 28.1%	17.4% vs L: 27.8%	22.9% vs L: 15.8%
Freddie FreemanL	18.4%	15.5%	6.8% vs L: 0%	14.8% vs L: 22%	16.5% vs L: 17.6%	12.6% vs L: 14%	7.7% vs L: 5.9%
Mookie BettsR	8.4%	12.7%	13.6% vs L: 0%	8.4% vs L: 9.8%	17.4% vs L: 26.7%	9.8% vs L: 8.3%	13.3% vs L: 9.1%
Max MuncyL	27.9%	24.5%	21.1% vs L: 14.3%	16% vs L: 15.4%	28.4% vs L: 30.8%	12.5% vs L: 9.5%	18.7% vs L: 44.4%
Tommy EdmanS	26.8%	17.2%	17.2% vs L: 28.6%	28.2% vs L: 45.8%	18.8% vs L: 12.5%	10.5% vs L: 0%	13.2% vs L: 17.6%
Kyle TuckerL	17.8%	17.5%	13.6% vs L: 27.3%	14.4% vs L: 18.6%	13.3% vs L: 3.1%	20% vs L: 20.6%	13.2% vs L: 16%
Teoscar HernándezR	21.5%	29.8%	15.6% vs L: 13.3%	17.9% vs L: 13.3%	30.6% vs L: 38.5%	24.1% vs L: 0%	18.2% vs L: 17.1%
Enrique HernándezR	24%	36.4%	60% vs L: 60%	13.3% vs L: 7.1%	—	0% vs L: 0%	20% vs L: 20%
Hunter FeducciaL	14.3%	26.8%	20.7%	20.5% vs L: 8.3%	21.7% vs L: 12.5%	18.8% vs L: 0%	31.4% vs L: 33.3%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Curveball	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Sinker	Changeup
Shohei OhtaniL	37.4% vs L: 39.1%	23.6% vs L: 16.2%	35.9% vs L: 39.1%	19.4% vs L: 23.4%	37.5% vs L: 42.3%
Freddie FreemanL	17.9% vs L: 6.2%	17% vs L: 24.8%	32.3% vs L: 36.2%	17.9% vs L: 13.9%	20.6% vs L: 10.5%
Mookie BettsR	9.1% vs L: 0%	5.4% vs L: 3.3%	25% vs L: 30.8%	3.9% vs L: 2.7%	16.7% vs L: 14.8%
Max MuncyL	30.9% vs L: 25%	19.1% vs L: 23.2%	31.6% vs L: 37%	10.8% vs L: 9.5%	35.5% vs L: 44.4%
Tommy EdmanS	36.4% vs L: 45.5%	17.3% vs L: 27.7%	33.9% vs L: 30.8%	2.7% vs L: 0%	23% vs L: 32%
Kyle TuckerL	29.8% vs L: 30%	17.1% vs L: 20%	28.3% vs L: 32.7%	5.4% vs L: 2.4%	26.2% vs L: 25%
Teoscar HernándezR	39.3% vs L: 40%	21.6% vs L: 20%	44.4% vs L: 66.7%	14% vs L: 5.6%	38.5% vs L: 40.3%
Enrique HernándezR	40% vs L: 42.9%	13.3% vs L: 9.1%	—	11.1% vs L: 14.3%	27.3% vs L: 27.3%
Hunter FeducciaL	20.7%	11.1% vs L: 5%	36.8% vs L: 37.5%	15.2% vs L: 7.7%	36.7% vs L: 37.5%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

No head-to-head history found for this lineup.

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Shohei Ohtani	30.9%	30.2%	34.2%	63.9%
Freddie Freeman	31.4%	32.7%	18.6%	74.2%
Mookie Betts	19.7%	23.9%	11.5%	85.3%
Max Muncy	26.7%	22.2%	24.2%	75%
Tommy Edman	30.9%	30.9%	21.2%	76.4%
Kyle Tucker	23.5%	15.7%	7%	85.9%
Teoscar Hernández	33.3%	31.7%	22.7%	67.8%
Enrique Hernández	36.9%	25%	39.1%	61%
Hunter Feduccia	24.2%	21.2%	21.1%	85.7%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-07	Houston Astros	4.7	3
2026-07-20	Colorado Rockies	3.1	2
2026-08-03	Philadelphia Phillies	4.5	5
2026-08-08	Cincinnati Reds	5.4	2
2026-08-14	New York Mets	2	4
2026-08-20	Texas Rangers	1.5	5
2026-08-25	Colorado Rockies	1.6	6
2026-08-30	Miami Marlins	2.5	6
2026-09-06	Los Angeles Dodgers	4.24	—

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 21.7%

!Whiff rate is 21.8%

!CSW rate is 28.8%

!Opponent K% is 20.8%

!Average pitch count is 79.2

!WHIP is 1.4

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-08-30	Miami Marlins	Home	6	6	97	1.31	12	50%
2026-08-25	Colorado Rockies	Home	4.2	6	81	1.35	12	50%
2026-08-20	Texas Rangers	Away	5	5	75	1.34	7	71.4%
2026-08-14	New York Mets	Away	5.2	4	73	1.33	8	50%
2026-08-08	Cincinnati Reds	Home	5.1	2	73	1.4	11	18.2%
2026-08-03	Philadelphia Phillies	Away	6.1	5	81	1.45	9	55.6%
2026-07-27	Toronto Blue Jays	Home	4.1	3	80	1.51	11	27.3%
2026-07-20	Colorado Rockies	Away	4.1	2	74	1.5	8	25%
2026-07-12	New York Yankees	Home	2	2	40	1.45	6	33.3%
2026-07-07	Houston Astros	Home	5.2	3	97	1.4	9	33.3%