MLB pitcher strikeout
Andrew Alvarez
Projection
3.1
Model strikeouts
Market line
4.5
ESPN BET
Model edge
+1.4
Under 4.5
Recommendation
Under 4.5
ESPN BET
Confidence
B+
70/100
Pitcher K%
18.6%
Whiff%
24.2%
CSW%
27.3%
WHIP
1.44
Avg IP
4.1
Avg pitches
73.6
Last 5 avg Ks
3.6
Games logged
14
Matchup K%
N/A
Platoon K%
23.4%
Team chase
34.2%
Recent chase
34.7%
Recent contact
74.4%
Prop performance terminal
STRIKEOUT RESULTS
Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.
Market line
4.5
ESPN BET
Model projection
3.1
Expected strikeouts
Hit rate
50%
5 of 10 overs
Average Ks
3.9
Selected starts
Average margin
-0.6
Vs selected line
Current streak
3
UNDER
Interactive line simulator
Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.
Active line
4.5
Over
5
Under
5
Push
0
Jul 20
Colorado Rockies
Strikeouts
2
-2.5
Jul 12
New York Yankees
Strikeouts
2
-2.5
Jul 7
Houston Astros
Strikeouts
3
-1.5
Jul 1
Boston Red Sox
Strikeouts
6
+1.5
Jun 26
Baltimore Orioles
Strikeouts
5
+0.5
Analytics
Sportsbook Lines
| Book | Line | Over odds | Under odds | Over edge | Under edge | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 3.5 | -190 | +138 | -0.4 | +0.4 | — |
| ESPN BET | 4.5 | -110 | -125 | -1.4 | +1.4 | Best Under |
| Bovada | 4.5 | +107 | -139 | -1.4 | +1.4 | — |
| DraftKings | 4.5 | -110 | -125 | -1.4 | +1.4 | — |
| FanDuel | 4.5 | +106 | -142 | -1.4 | +1.4 | — |
| Caesars | 4.5 | +109 | -- | -1.4 | +1.4 | — |
Analytics
Batter vs. Pitcher History
| Batter | PA | K | K% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Carrigg | 3 | 0 | 0% |
| TJ Rumfield | 2 | 1 | 50% |
| Willi Castro | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| Braxton Fulford | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| Tyler Freeman | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| Ezequiel Tovar | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| Jake McCarthy | 1 | 0 | 0% |
Analytics
Lineup Chase Rate
| Batter | Chase rate | Recent chase | Recent K% | Recent contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake McCarthy | 36.3% | 37% | 13.2% | 82.1% |
| Kyle Karros | 24.9% | 24.6% | 18.2% | 68.9% |
| Cole Carrigg | 37.8% | 40.4% | 25% | 78.6% |
| Hunter Goodman | 40.5% | 39.2% | 33.3% | 53.2% |
| TJ Rumfield | 30.1% | 29.3% | 16.2% | 77.6% |
| Willi Castro | 37.6% | 38.5% | 37% | 69.1% |
| Braxton Fulford | 26.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Tyler Freeman | 29.4% | 27.7% | 15.4% | 86.3% |
| Ezequiel Tovar | 45.1% | 40.8% | 11.5% | 79.6% |
Analytics
Projection History
| Date | Opponent | Projected | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Houston Astros | 4.7 | 3 |
| 2026-07-20 | Colorado Rockies | 3.1 | 2 |
Analytics
Why This Projection?
Analytics
Last 10 Starts
| Date | Opponent | H/A | IP | Ks | Pitches | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Colorado Rockies | Away | 4.1 | 2 | 74 | 1.5 |
| 2026-07-12 | New York Yankees | Home | 2 | 2 | 40 | 1.45 |
| 2026-07-07 | Houston Astros | Home | 5.2 | 3 | 97 | 1.4 |
| 2026-07-01 | Boston Red Sox | Away | 4.2 | 6 | 74 | 1.38 |
| 2026-06-26 | Baltimore Orioles | Away | 4.1 | 5 | 88 | 1.47 |
| 2026-06-21 | Tampa Bay Rays | Away | 4 | 6 | 68 | 1.39 |
| 2026-06-15 | Kansas City Royals | Home | 4 | 5 | 58 | 1.45 |
| 2026-06-09 | San Francisco Giants | Away | 4 | 4 | 90 | 1.44 |
| 2026-06-03 | Miami Marlins | Home | 4.2 | 5 | 82 | 1.23 |
| 2026-05-29 | San Diego Padres | Home | 3 | 1 | 74 | 1.28 |