MLB pitcher strikeout
Matthew Liberatore
Projection
4
Model strikeouts
Market line
5.5
Bovada
Model edge
+1.5
Under 5.5
Recommendation
Under 5.5
Bovada
Confidence
A
80/100
Pitcher K%
21.9%
Whiff%
23.2%
CSW%
30%
WHIP
1.53
Avg IP
4.6
Avg pitches
79
Last 5 avg Ks
4.6
Games logged
19
Matchup K%
N/A
Platoon K%
23.5%
Team chase
33.8%
Recent chase
32.2%
Recent contact
73.1%
Prop performance terminal
STRIKEOUT RESULTS
Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.
Market line
5.5
Bovada
Model projection
4
Expected strikeouts
Hit rate
40%
4 of 10 overs
Average Ks
5.4
Selected starts
Average margin
-0.1
Vs selected line
Current streak
1
OVER
Interactive line simulator
Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.
Active line
5.5
Over
4
Under
6
Push
0
Jul 11
Atlanta Braves
Strikeouts
6
+0.5
Jul 5
Chicago Cubs
Strikeouts
3
-2.5
Jun 30
Atlanta Braves
Strikeouts
9
+3.5
Jun 24
Arizona Diamondbacks
Strikeouts
3
-2.5
Jun 18
Kansas City Royals
Strikeouts
2
-3.5
Analytics
Sportsbook Lines
| Book | Line | Over odds | Under odds | Over edge | Under edge | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 4.5 | -176 | -- | -0.5 | +0.5 | — |
| Bovada | 5.5 | +120 | -160 | -1.5 | +1.5 | Best Under |
| FanDuel | 5.5 | +124 | -160 | -1.5 | +1.5 | — |
| Caesars | 5.5 | +118 | -- | -1.5 | +1.5 | — |
| BetMGM | 5.5 | +115 | -155 | -1.5 | +1.5 | — |
| ESPN BET | 5.5 | +115 | -160 | -1.5 | +1.5 | — |
Analytics
Batter vs. Pitcher History
| Batter | PA | K | K% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan Schanuel | 4 | 0 | 0% |
| Jorge Soler | 4 | 1 | 25% |
| Jo Adell | 4 | 1 | 25% |
| Mike Trout | 3 | 1 | 33.3% |
| Jose Siri | 3 | 2 | 66.7% |
| Logan O'Hoppe | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| Zach Neto | 1 | 0 | 0% |
| Vaughn Grissom | 1 | 0 | 0% |
Analytics
Lineup Chase Rate
| Batter | Chase rate | Recent chase | Recent K% | Recent contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Neto | 40% | 38.5% | 25% | 70.3% |
| Mike Trout | 20.4% | 23.7% | 33.3% | 75.3% |
| Nolan Schanuel | 32.3% | 25.8% | 8.6% | 93.8% |
| Jorge Soler | 26.9% | 32.1% | 41.2% | 59.7% |
| Vaughn Grissom | 28.6% | 35.8% | 14.7% | 86.8% |
| Jo Adell | 37.9% | 30% | 22.9% | 71.9% |
| Oswald Peraza | 37.7% | 29.7% | 41.2% | 71.4% |
| Jose Siri | 43.4% | 38.1% | N/A | 68.2% |
| Logan O'Hoppe | 36.9% | 36.5% | 28% | 60.5% |
Analytics
Projection History
| Date | Opponent | Projected | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Atlanta Braves | 3.9 | 6 |
| 2026-07-21 | Los Angeles Angels | 4 | — |
Analytics
Why This Projection?
Analytics
Last 10 Starts
| Date | Opponent | H/A | IP | Ks | Pitches | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Atlanta Braves | Home | 6 | 6 | 71 | 1.48 |
| 2026-07-05 | Chicago Cubs | Away | 5 | 3 | 78 | 1.53 |
| 2026-06-30 | Atlanta Braves | Away | 5 | 9 | 98 | 1.55 |
| 2026-06-24 | Arizona Diamondbacks | Home | 5.1 | 3 | 98 | 1.58 |
| 2026-06-18 | Kansas City Royals | Away | 1.2 | 2 | 48 | 1.56 |
| 2026-06-13 | Minnesota Twins | Away | 4.1 | 4 | 70 | 1.5 |
| 2026-06-06 | Cincinnati Reds | Home | 4.1 | 4 | 84 | 1.51 |
| 2026-05-31 | Chicago Cubs | Home | 5.1 | 4 | 85 | 1.5 |
| 2026-05-25 | Milwaukee Brewers | Away | 5 | 10 | 101 | 1.57 |
| 2026-05-19 | Pittsburgh Pirates | Home | 4.2 | 9 | 77 | 1.55 |