Daily moneyline model
MLB GAME PREDICTOR Tuesday, July 21, 2026
Strongest pick▼
63.3%
Signal agreements▼
10/14
Prediction date Jul 21, 2026 Jul 20, 2026 Jul 19, 2026 Jul 18, 2026 Jul 17, 2026 Jul 16, 2026
Jump to game Select a game… Minnesota Twins @ Cleveland Guardians Los Angeles Dodgers @ Philadelphia Phillies Pittsburgh Pirates @ New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays @ Toronto Blue Jays Baltimore Orioles @ Boston Red Sox San Diego Padres @ Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants @ Kansas City Royals New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers Detroit Tigers @ Chicago Cubs Chicago White Sox @ Texas Rangers Miami Marlins @ Houston Astros Washington Nationals @ Colorado Rockies St. Louis Cardinals @ Los Angeles Angels Cincinnati Reds @ Seattle Mariners
The three signal votes explain the model inputs. They are not added to the probability a second time. Public betting data is a separate, live-only signal shown for reference.
What do these mean? ▼ Show
Model track record
36-25 (61 resolved games)
59.0% ▼ Show patterns
Model prediction
Minnesota Twins
54.8%
54.8% 45.2% Moneyline
▼ Line history +124 -160 Total runs estimate
Model estimate 8.9
No market total line available
Public betting
Smart money +12pp 14% bets / 26% money 86% bets / 74% money ✓ Money agrees with model pick
Feature signals
2-1 Cleveland Guardians
Team strength
Pythagorean win profile
+0.029
Favors Cleveland Guardians
Compares each team's Pythagorean win% - expected win rate from runs scored vs. runs allowed this season.
Starting pitcher
Last-five-start FIP
-0.30
Favors Minnesota Twins
Compares each starter's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) over their last 5 starts - lower is better.
Bullpen
Rolling 7-day WHIP
+0.218
Favors Cleveland Guardians
Compares each team's bullpen WHIP (walks + hits per inning) over the last 7 days - lower is better.
Toss-up Mixed signals
Model prediction
Los Angeles Dodgers
61.6%
61.6% 38.4% Moneyline
▼ Line history +102 -120 Total runs estimate
Model estimate 9.3
No market total line available
Public betting
Smart money +17pp 38% bets / 55% money 62% bets / 45% money ✓ Money agrees with model pick
Feature signals
2-1 Los Angeles Dodgers
Team strength
Pythagorean win profile
-0.176
Favors Los Angeles Dodgers
Compares each team's Pythagorean win% - expected win rate from runs scored vs. runs allowed this season.
Starting pitcher
Last-five-start FIP
+1.53
Favors Philadelphia Phillies
Compares each starter's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) over their last 5 starts - lower is better.
Bullpen
Rolling 7-day WHIP
-0.083
Favors Los Angeles Dodgers
Compares each team's bullpen WHIP (walks + hits per inning) over the last 7 days - lower is better.
Strong Signals agree
Model prediction
Pittsburgh Pirates
54.5%
54.5% 45.5% Moneyline
▼ Line history +142 -168 Total runs estimate
Model estimate 9.3
No market total line available
8% bets / 0% money 92% bets / 100% money — No smart-money signal
Feature signals
2-1 Pittsburgh Pirates
Team strength
Pythagorean win profile
+0.051
Favors New York Yankees
Compares each team's Pythagorean win% - expected win rate from runs scored vs. runs allowed this season.
Starting pitcher
Last-five-start FIP
-1.52
Favors Pittsburgh Pirates
Compares each starter's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) over their last 5 starts - lower is better.
Bullpen
Rolling 7-day WHIP
-0.335
Favors Pittsburgh Pirates
Compares each team's bullpen WHIP (walks + hits per inning) over the last 7 days - lower is better.
Toss-up Signals agree
Model prediction
Tampa Bay Rays
61.9%
61.9% 38.1% Moneyline
▼ Line history -108 -108 Total runs estimate
Model estimate 9.2
No market total line available
75% bets / 83% money 25% bets / 17% money — No smart-money signal
Feature signals
3-0 Tampa Bay Rays
Team strength
Pythagorean win profile
-0.090
Favors Tampa Bay Rays
Compares each team's Pythagorean win% - expected win rate from runs scored vs. runs allowed this season.
Starting pitcher
Last-five-start FIP
-0.06
Favors Tampa Bay Rays
Compares each starter's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) over their last 5 starts - lower is better.
Bullpen
Rolling 7-day WHIP
-0.150
Favors Tampa Bay Rays
Compares each team's bullpen WHIP (walks + hits per inning) over the last 7 days - lower is better.
Strong Signals agree
Model prediction
Baltimore Orioles
53.1%
53.1% 46.9% Moneyline
▼ Line history +126 -148 Total runs estimate
Model estimate 9.0
No market total line available
Public betting
Smart money +37pp 11% bets / 48% money 89% bets / 52% money ✓ Money agrees with model pick
Feature signals
2-1 Boston Red Sox
Team strength
Pythagorean win profile
+0.073
Favors Boston Red Sox
Compares each team's Pythagorean win% - expected win rate from runs scored vs. runs allowed this season.
Starting pitcher
Last-five-start FIP
-2.75
Favors Baltimore Orioles
Compares each starter's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) over their last 5 starts - lower is better.
Bullpen
Rolling 7-day WHIP
+0.245
Favors Boston Red Sox
Compares each team's bullpen WHIP (walks + hits per inning) over the last 7 days - lower is better.
Toss-up Mixed signals
Model prediction
Atlanta Braves
52.5%
47.5% 52.5% Moneyline
▼ Line history +120 -142 Total runs estimate
Model estimate 9.5
No market total line available
18% bets / 8% money 83% bets / 92% money — No smart-money signal
Feature signals
3-0 Atlanta Braves
Team strength
Pythagorean win profile
+0.159
Favors Atlanta Braves
Compares each team's Pythagorean win% - expected win rate from runs scored vs. runs allowed this season.
Starting pitcher
Last-five-start FIP
+5.52
Favors Atlanta Braves
Compares each starter's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) over their last 5 starts - lower is better.
Bullpen
Rolling 7-day WHIP
+0.049
Favors Atlanta Braves
Compares each team's bullpen WHIP (walks + hits per inning) over the last 7 days - lower is better.
Toss-up Signals agree
Model prediction
San Francisco Giants
58.0%
58.0% 42.0% Moneyline
▼ Line history -110 -106 Total runs estimate
Model estimate 9.4
No market total line available
Public betting
Smart money +2pp 41% bets / 43% money 59% bets / 57% money ✓ Money agrees with model pick
Feature signals
3-0 San Francisco Giants
Team strength
Pythagorean win profile
-0.031
Favors San Francisco Giants
Compares each team's Pythagorean win% - expected win rate from runs scored vs. runs allowed this season.
Starting pitcher
Last-five-start FIP
-0.05
Favors San Francisco Giants
Compares each starter's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) over their last 5 starts - lower is better.
Bullpen
Rolling 7-day WHIP
-0.478
Favors San Francisco Giants
Compares each team's bullpen WHIP (walks + hits per inning) over the last 7 days - lower is better.
Lean Signals agree
Model prediction
Milwaukee Brewers
54.5%
45.5% 54.5% Moneyline
▼ Line history +114 -134 Total runs estimate
Model estimate 9.0
No market total line available
12% bets / 11% money 88% bets / 89% money — No smart-money signal
Feature signals
2-1 Milwaukee Brewers
Team strength
Pythagorean win profile
+0.225
Favors Milwaukee Brewers
Compares each team's Pythagorean win% - expected win rate from runs scored vs. runs allowed this season.
Starting pitcher
Last-five-start FIP
-0.93
Favors New York Mets
Compares each starter's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) over their last 5 starts - lower is better.
Bullpen
Rolling 7-day WHIP
+0.406
Favors Milwaukee Brewers
Compares each team's bullpen WHIP (walks + hits per inning) over the last 7 days - lower is better.
Toss-up Signals agree
Model prediction
Detroit Tigers
57.8%
57.8% 42.2% Moneyline
▼ Line history +102 -120 Total runs estimate
Model estimate 9.1
No market total line available
Public betting
Smart money +7pp 51% bets / 58% money 49% bets / 42% money ✓ Money agrees with model pick
Feature signals
2-1 Detroit Tigers
Team strength
Pythagorean win profile
+0.022
Favors Chicago Cubs
Compares each team's Pythagorean win% - expected win rate from runs scored vs. runs allowed this season.
Starting pitcher
Last-five-start FIP
-2.37
Favors Detroit Tigers
Compares each starter's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) over their last 5 starts - lower is better.
Bullpen
Rolling 7-day WHIP
-0.177
Favors Detroit Tigers
Compares each team's bullpen WHIP (walks + hits per inning) over the last 7 days - lower is better.
Lean Signals agree
Model prediction
Chicago White Sox
61.8%
61.8% 38.2% Moneyline
▼ Line history +102 -120 Total runs estimate
Model estimate 9.6
No market total line available
Public betting
Smart money +1pp 50% bets / 51% money 50% bets / 49% money ✓ Money agrees with model pick
Feature signals
2-1 Chicago White Sox
Team strength
Pythagorean win profile
-0.101
Favors Chicago White Sox
Compares each team's Pythagorean win% - expected win rate from runs scored vs. runs allowed this season.
Starting pitcher
Last-five-start FIP
+0.75
Favors Texas Rangers
Compares each starter's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) over their last 5 starts - lower is better.
Bullpen
Rolling 7-day WHIP
-0.640
Favors Chicago White Sox
Compares each team's bullpen WHIP (walks + hits per inning) over the last 7 days - lower is better.
Strong Signals agree
Model prediction
Miami Marlins
55.5%
55.5% 44.5% Moneyline
▼ Line history +106 -124 Total runs estimate
Model estimate 9.5
No market total line available
Public betting
Smart money +28pp 26% bets / 54% money 74% bets / 46% money ✓ Money agrees with model pick
Feature signals
2-1 Houston Astros
Team strength
Pythagorean win profile
-0.069
Favors Miami Marlins
Compares each team's Pythagorean win% - expected win rate from runs scored vs. runs allowed this season.
Starting pitcher
Last-five-start FIP
+0.36
Favors Houston Astros
Compares each starter's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) over their last 5 starts - lower is better.
Bullpen
Rolling 7-day WHIP
+0.398
Favors Houston Astros
Compares each team's bullpen WHIP (walks + hits per inning) over the last 7 days - lower is better.
Lean Mixed signals
Model prediction
Washington Nationals
63.3%
63.3% 36.7% Moneyline
▼ Line history -112 -104 Total runs estimate
Model estimate 9.7
No market total line available
72% bets / 87% money 28% bets / 13% money — No smart-money signal
Feature signals
2-1 Washington Nationals
Team strength
Pythagorean win profile
-0.105
Favors Washington Nationals
Compares each team's Pythagorean win% - expected win rate from runs scored vs. runs allowed this season.
Starting pitcher
Last-five-start FIP
-1.73
Favors Washington Nationals
Compares each starter's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) over their last 5 starts - lower is better.
Bullpen
Rolling 7-day WHIP
+0.233
Favors Colorado Rockies
Compares each team's bullpen WHIP (walks + hits per inning) over the last 7 days - lower is better.
Strong Signals agree
Model prediction
St. Louis Cardinals
54.9%
54.9% 45.1% Moneyline
▼ Line history -102 -116 Total runs estimate
Model estimate 9.2
No market total line available
Public betting
Smart money +2pp 48% bets / 50% money 52% bets / 50% money ✓ Money agrees with model pick
Feature signals
2-1 Los Angeles Angels
Team strength
Pythagorean win profile
-0.068
Favors St. Louis Cardinals
Compares each team's Pythagorean win% - expected win rate from runs scored vs. runs allowed this season.
Starting pitcher
Last-five-start FIP
+0.70
Favors Los Angeles Angels
Compares each starter's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) over their last 5 starts - lower is better.
Bullpen
Rolling 7-day WHIP
+0.527
Favors Los Angeles Angels
Compares each team's bullpen WHIP (walks + hits per inning) over the last 7 days - lower is better.
Toss-up Mixed signals
Model prediction
Seattle Mariners
54.7%
45.3% 54.7% Moneyline
▼ Line history +100 -118 Total runs estimate
Model estimate 9.0
No market total line available
Public betting
Smart money +37pp 40% bets / 77% money 60% bets / 23% money ✗ Money disagrees with model pick
Feature signals
2-1 Seattle Mariners
Team strength
Pythagorean win profile
+0.101
Favors Seattle Mariners
Compares each team's Pythagorean win% - expected win rate from runs scored vs. runs allowed this season.
Starting pitcher
Last-five-start FIP
-0.67
Favors Cincinnati Reds
Compares each starter's FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) over their last 5 starts - lower is better.
Bullpen
Rolling 7-day WHIP
+0.658
Favors Seattle Mariners
Compares each team's bullpen WHIP (walks + hits per inning) over the last 7 days - lower is better.
Toss-up Signals agree
Minnesota Twins@
Cleveland Guardians
Los Angeles Dodgers
Philadelphia Phillies
Pittsburgh Pirates
New York Yankees
Tampa Bay Rays
Toronto Blue Jays
Baltimore Orioles
Boston Red Sox
San Diego Padres
Atlanta Braves
San Francisco Giants
Kansas City Royals
New York Mets
Milwaukee Brewers
Detroit Tigers
Chicago Cubs
Chicago White Sox
Texas Rangers
Miami Marlins
Houston Astros
Washington Nationals
Colorado Rockies
St. Louis Cardinals
Los Angeles Angels
Cincinnati Reds
Seattle Mariners