MLB pitcher strikeout
Shane Baz
Projection
5.5
Model strikeouts
Market line
7.5
ESPN BET
Model edge
+2.0
Under 7.5
Recommendation
Under 7.5
ESPN BET
Confidence
A
85/100
Pitcher K%
23.4%
Whiff%
22.1%
CSW%
25.7%
WHIP
1.38
Avg IP
5.8
Avg pitches
95.5
Last 5 avg Ks
5.8
Games logged
20
Matchup K%
24.6%
Platoon K%
21.6%
Team chase
32.3%
Recent chase
32.9%
Recent contact
80.1%
Prop performance terminal
STRIKEOUT RESULTS
Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.
Market line
7.5
ESPN BET
Model projection
5.5
Expected strikeouts
Hit rate
30%
3 of 10 overs
Average Ks
5.7
Selected starts
Average margin
-1.8
Vs selected line
Current streak
1
UNDER
Interactive line simulator
Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.
Active line
7.5
Over
3
Under
7
Push
0
Jul 20
Boston Red Sox
Strikeouts
6
-1.5
Jul 12
Kansas City Royals
Strikeouts
9
+1.5
Jul 7
Chicago Cubs
Strikeouts
3
-4.5
Jun 29
Chicago White Sox
Strikeouts
6
-1.5
Jun 23
Los Angeles Angels
Strikeouts
5
-2.5
Analytics
Sportsbook Lines
| Book | Line | Over odds | Under odds | Over edge | Under edge | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 6.5 | +100 | -135 | -1.0 | +1.0 | — |
| DraftKings | 6.5 | -155 | +115 | -1.0 | +1.0 | — |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 | +280 | -110 | -2.0 | +2.0 | Best Under |
| FanDuel | 5.5 | -265 | -- | +0.0 | +0.0 | — |
| Bovada | 5.5 | +120 | -160 | +0.0 | +0.0 | — |
| Caesars | 6.5 | -105 | -- | -1.0 | +1.0 | — |
Analytics
Batter vs. Pitcher History
| Batter | PA | K | K% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jarren Duran | 20 | 5 | 25% |
| Wilyer Abreu | 15 | 6 | 40% |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 13 | 3 | 23.1% |
| Masataka Yoshida | 12 | 2 | 16.7% |
| Willson Contreras | 9 | 1 | 11.1% |
| Connor Wong | 7 | 3 | 42.9% |
| Anthony Seigler | 3 | 0 | 0% |
| Caleb Durbin | 2 | 0 | 0% |
| Tsung-Che Cheng | 2 | 2 | 100% |
Analytics
Lineup Chase Rate
| Batter | Chase rate | Recent chase | Recent K% | Recent contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Seigler | 26.8% | 28.1% | 15.8% | 86% |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | 42.7% | 49.4% | 17.8% | 81.4% |
| Wilyer Abreu | 31.6% | 29.2% | 18.6% | 80.3% |
| Willson Contreras | 35.9% | 43.2% | 22.2% | 73.5% |
| Masataka Yoshida | 32.7% | 27.1% | 14.3% | 93.6% |
| Caleb Durbin | 30.3% | 29.5% | 9.5% | 91.8% |
| Jarren Duran | 34.6% | 31.2% | 28.2% | 70.8% |
| Connor Wong | 27.2% | 28.9% | 23.8% | 79.5% |
| Tsung-Che Cheng | 28.8% | 29.5% | 40% | 63.9% |
Analytics
Projection History
| Date | Opponent | Projected | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Chicago Cubs | 4.3 | 3 |
| 2026-07-12 | Kansas City Royals | 4.8 | 9 |
| 2026-07-20 | Boston Red Sox | 5.5 | 6 |
Analytics
Why This Projection?
Analytics
Last 10 Starts
| Date | Opponent | H/A | IP | Ks | Pitches | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Boston Red Sox | Away | 6 | 6 | 77 | 1.38 |
| 2026-07-12 | Kansas City Royals | Home | 4.2 | 9 | 104 | 1.39 |
| 2026-07-07 | Chicago Cubs | Home | 6 | 3 | 100 | 1.37 |
| 2026-06-29 | Chicago White Sox | Home | 7 | 6 | 109 | 1.37 |
| 2026-06-23 | Los Angeles Angels | Away | 5 | 5 | 91 | 1.38 |
| 2026-06-18 | Seattle Mariners | Away | 7 | 9 | 99 | 1.36 |
| 2026-06-12 | San Diego Padres | Home | 5 | 1 | 103 | 1.39 |
| 2026-06-07 | Toronto Blue Jays | Away | 5.2 | 3 | 81 | 1.38 |
| 2026-06-02 | Boston Red Sox | Away | 7 | 6 | 94 | 1.37 |
| 2026-05-26 | Tampa Bay Rays | Home | 7 | 9 | 99 | 1.43 |