MLB pitcher strikeout

MacKenzie Gore

vs Tampa Bay Rays2026-09-06FanDuelLHP

Projection

5.3

Ensemble: 5.3

Market line

5.5

FanDuel

Model edge

No qualifying edge

40% (4/10)· 2U streak

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Recommendation

No recommendation

Confidence

A+

90/100

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Pitcher K%

24.8%

Whiff%

31.6%

CSW%

28.2%

WHIP

1.26

Avg IP

5.5

Avg pitches

96.2

Last 5 avg Ks

5.8

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

23.5%

Team chase

31.3%

Recent chase

31.8%

Recent contact

84.1%

Recent K% (7d)

15%

Opp K% vs RHP

16.5%

Opp K% vs LHP

18.5%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

5.5

FanDuel

Model projection

5.3

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Ks

5.8

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

40% (4/10)· 2U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

5.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 5.5Model 5.3

Sep 1

vs ATH

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 26

@ CWS

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 21

vs LAA

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 15

@ ATH

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 10

@ LAA

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

17.5

DraftKings

Model projection

16.8

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Outs

16.1

Selected starts

Average margin

-1.4

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

30% (3/10)· 2U streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

17.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 17.5Model 16.8

Sep 1

vs ATH

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Aug 26

@ CWS

UNDER

Outs

-6.5

Aug 21

vs LAA

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 15

@ ATH

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 10

@ LAA

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Tampa Bay Rays

No prior starts found against Tampa Bay Rays.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
FanDuel	5.5	+124	-160	-0.2	+0.2	—
DraftKings	5.5	+124	-159	-0.2	+0.2	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

71%

5+ Ks

50.8%

6+ Ks

31.1%Line

7+ Ks

16.2%

8+ Ks

7.4%

9+ Ks

2.6%

10+ Ks

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	49%	22.3%	20.5%	95.2
Curveball	15.3%	25.6%	13.3%	81.3
Changeup	14.7%	40.9%	31%	86.1
Slider	10.8%	31.8%	26.1%	85.5
Cutter	5.7%	26.5%	26.7%	89.8
Sinker	4.4%	6.1%	23.5%	95.1

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

45.3%

2-Strike Foul%

20.9%

2-Strike Contact%

70%

Expected Ks

31.4

K Luck

-2.4

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	22	54.5%	40.9%
1-2	34	38.2%	58.8%
2-2	37	35.1%	64.9%
3-2 (full)	17	23.5%	76.5%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Curveball	Changeup	Slider	Cutter	Sinker
Yandy DíazR	12.4%	14.9%	16.1% vs L: 8.5%	14% vs L: 6.2%	11.3% vs L: 12.2%	8.8% vs L: 8.3%	16% vs L: 13.3%	12.9% vs L: 27.8%
Jonathan ArandaL	28.3%	21.6%	18% vs L: 21.1%	27.9% vs L: 25%	11.1% vs L: 22.2%	19.1% vs L: 16%	24.4% vs L: 27.3%	25% vs L: 28.9%
Junior CamineroR	14%	20%	16.9% vs L: 17.6%	27.1% vs L: 21.1%	11.3% vs L: 10.3%	14.8% vs L: 5%	17.4% vs L: 50%	14.8% vs L: 6.2%
Liam HicksL	15.1%	8.2%	5.4% vs L: 18.8%	16% vs L: 0%	12.1%	23.4% vs L: 38.5%	0% vs L: 0%	10.3% vs L: 16.7%
Chandler SimpsonL	10.9%	6.8%	5.5% vs L: 5.1%	14.3% vs L: 14.3%	13.5% vs L: 16.7%	14.3% vs L: 15.6%	9.7% vs L: 11.1%	12.8% vs L: 22.7%
Jonny DeLucaR	20.8%	19.8%	19% vs L: 22.8%	20% vs L: 14.3%	12.5% vs L: 12.1%	24.5% vs L: 21.1%	15.4% vs L: 0%	23.1% vs L: 18.2%
Cedric MullinsL	17.9%	19.3%	16.8% vs L: 18%	27.3% vs L: 33.3%	14.3% vs L: 20%	18.6% vs L: 12.9%	17.4% vs L: 33.3%	17.6% vs L: 5.9%
Richie PalaciosL	22%	16.7%	19.3% vs L: 33.3%	11.8%	10.3%	14.3% vs L: 28.6%	15% vs L: 50%	18.8% vs L: 23.1%
Taylor WallsS	21.1%	25.7%	23.9% vs L: 23.6%	20% vs L: 20%	25.4% vs L: 21.2%	20.6% vs L: 20%	17.4% vs L: 25%	6.2% vs L: 14.3%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Curveball	Changeup	Slider	Cutter	Sinker
Yandy DíazR	16% vs L: 13%	13.7% vs L: 5.6%	15.9% vs L: 17.5%	14% vs L: 15.8%	11.4% vs L: 8.3%	5.6% vs L: 5.9%
Jonathan ArandaL	21.6% vs L: 22.6%	26% vs L: 20%	13.7% vs L: 33.3%	17.7% vs L: 24.1%	18.8% vs L: 25.8%	8.8% vs L: 13.9%
Junior CamineroR	18.7% vs L: 18.8%	31.7% vs L: 20%	26.8% vs L: 25%	24% vs L: 9.5%	12.5% vs L: 8.7%	10.4% vs L: 9.1%
Liam HicksL	3.8% vs L: 9.7%	12.8% vs L: 0%	13.9%	20.7% vs L: 20.7%	7.2% vs L: 30%	2.4% vs L: 3.9%
Chandler SimpsonL	3.5% vs L: 3.8%	27.6% vs L: 33.3%	20% vs L: 25%	20.8% vs L: 22.2%	10.4% vs L: 0%	3.2% vs L: 4.5%
Jonny DeLucaR	20.5% vs L: 25%	22.2% vs L: 13.3%	25% vs L: 23.3%	33.3% vs L: 29.6%	16.9% vs L: 13%	12% vs L: 16.1%
Cedric MullinsL	19.9% vs L: 29.7%	37.2% vs L: 40%	18.5% vs L: 12.5%	24.1% vs L: 20.5%	25% vs L: 54.5%	13% vs L: 9.8%
Richie PalaciosL	13% vs L: 27.3%	21.7%	35%	28% vs L: 50%	13.7% vs L: 37.5%	5.6% vs L: 0%
Taylor WallsS	18.4% vs L: 15.8%	27.3% vs L: 0%	31% vs L: 32.5%	29.1% vs L: 16.7%	13.6% vs L: 8.7%	11.3% vs L: 12.5%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Cedric Mullins	9	2	22.2%	.286
Yandy Díaz	3	0	0%	.333
Jonathan Aranda	3	2	66.7%	.333
Junior Caminero	3	1	33.3%	.000
Chandler Simpson	3	1	33.3%	.000
Jonny DeLuca	3	1	33.3%	.000
Taylor Walls	2	1	50%	.000
Liam Hicks	1	0	0%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Yandy Díaz	29.6%	24%	12.7%	88.2%
Jonathan Aranda	29.4%	30.8%	25%	78.3%
Junior Caminero	32%	35%	20.8%	76.7%
Liam Hicks	28.2%	35.1%	12.5%	88.3%
Chandler Simpson	31.3%	27.5%	5.9%	86.5%
Jonny DeLuca	35.9%	35.7%	23.1%	81.1%
Cedric Mullins	34.1%	32.1%	8.6%	90.5%
Richie Palacios	35.9%	41.1%	10.3%	83.1%
Taylor Walls	25.7%	24.6%	23.1%	83.9%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-08	Los Angeles Angels	6.9	7
2026-07-12	Houston Astros	6.9	4
2026-07-18	Atlanta Braves	6.8	7
2026-07-24	Seattle Mariners	6.3	5
2026-07-29	Tampa Bay Rays	4.8	9
2026-08-04	San Francisco Giants	6.1	4
2026-08-10	Los Angeles Angels	6.8	9
2026-08-15	Athletics	7	5
2026-08-21	Los Angeles Angels	7.6	7
2026-08-26	Chicago White Sox	7.5	4
2026-09-01	Athletics	5.71	4
2026-09-06	Tampa Bay Rays	5.28	—

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 24.8%

✓Whiff rate is 31.6%

!CSW rate is 28.2%

!Opponent K% is 17%

✓Average pitch count is 96.2

!WHIP is 1.26

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-01	Athletics	Home	5.1	4	95	1.29	11	36.4%
2026-08-26	Chicago White Sox	Away	3.2	4	83	1.28	9	44.4%
2026-08-21	Los Angeles Angels	Home	6	7	100	1.23	16	43.8%
2026-08-15	Athletics	Away	5.2	5	99	1.26	11	45.5%
2026-08-10	Los Angeles Angels	Away	5.1	9	103	1.24	17	52.9%
2026-08-04	San Francisco Giants	Home	6	4	99	1.24	14	28.6%
2026-07-29	Tampa Bay Rays	Away	7	9	95	1.26	14	64.3%
2026-07-24	Seattle Mariners	Home	5	5	96	1.31	13	38.5%
2026-07-18	Atlanta Braves	Away	5.2	7	87	1.28	12	58.3%
2026-07-12	Houston Astros	Home	4	4	65	1.29	9	44.4%