MLB pitcher strikeout

Gavin Williams

vs Detroit Tigers2026-09-06DraftKingsRHP

Projection

8.7

Ensemble: 8.7

Market line

7.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+1.2

Over 7.5

70% (7/10)· 1O streak

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Recommendation

Over 7.5

DraftKings

Confidence

A+

100/100

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Pitcher K%

36.8%

Whiff%

36.5%

CSW%

35.3%

WHIP

1.08

Avg IP

5.5

Avg pitches

91.9

Last 5 avg Ks

7.8

Games logged

Matchup K%

48.5%

Platoon K%

35.9%

Team chase

30%

Recent chase

32.2%

Recent contact

75.2%

Recent K% (7d)

24%

Opp K% vs RHP

20.8%

Opp K% vs LHP

23%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

7.5

DraftKings

Model projection

8.7

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

70%

7 of 10 overs

Average Ks

9.4

Selected starts

Average margin

+1.9

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

70% (7/10)· 1O streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

7.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 7.5Model 8.7

Sep 1

vs TOR

OVER

Strikeouts

+5.5

Aug 25

@ LAA

UNDER

Strikeouts

-4.5

Aug 20

vs SF

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Aug 14

vs SD

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Aug 8

@ CWS

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

17.5

FanDuel

Model projection

16.6

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Outs

17.0

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.5

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

50% (5/10)· 1O streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

17.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 17.5Model 16.6

Sep 1

vs TOR

OVER

Outs

+3.5

Aug 25

@ LAA

UNDER

Outs

-13.5

Aug 20

vs SF

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 14

vs SD

UNDER

Outs

-4.5

Aug 8

@ CWS

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Detroit Tigers

No prior starts found against Detroit Tigers.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	7.5	-113	-113	+1.2	-1.2	Best Over
FanDuel	7.5	-113	-113	+1.2	-1.2	—
Pinnacle	7.5	-113	-117	+1.2	-1.2	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

89.3%

5+ Ks

77.8%

6+ Ks

60.8%

7+ Ks

42.4%

8+ Ks

25.6%Line

9+ Ks

13.7%

10+ Ks

5.9%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Sweeper	29.7%	41.9%	28.1%	87.9
4-Seam Fastball	27.9%	28.6%	27.9%	98.3
Curveball	22.1%	32%	23.9%	82.7
Sinker	16.7%	16%	10%	97.7
Cutter	3.6%	18.5%	25%	92.8

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

57.4%

2-Strike Foul%

22.9%

2-Strike Contact%

62%

Expected Ks

39.8

K Luck

-0.8

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	30	56.7%	40%
1-2	35	57.1%	42.9%
2-2	34	52.9%	47.1%
3-2 (full)	22	31.8%	68.2%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Sweeper	4-Seam Fastball	Curveball	Sinker	Cutter
Gleyber TorresR	19.3%	18.4%	16.1% vs R: 14.6%	14% vs R: 16%	16.2% vs R: 16.7%	8.7% vs R: 5.4%	28.6% vs R: 35.3%
Hao-Yu LeeR	22.8%	23.5%	13.6% vs R: 15%	24.8% vs R: 24.2%	0% vs R: 0%	23.5% vs R: 26.1%	31.6% vs R: 18.2%
Kevin McGonigleL	19.3%	11.2%	16.1% vs R: 18.8%	11.3% vs R: 12.2%	7.4% vs R: 6.5%	12.5% vs R: 14.3%	6% vs R: 2.5%
Dillon DinglerR	26.4%	20.4%	12.5% vs R: 11.8%	17.5% vs R: 18.6%	35.3% vs R: 27.3%	12.9% vs R: 15.5%	17.5% vs R: 12.9%
Eduardo ValenciaR	42.5%	20%	0%	38.2% vs R: 35.7%	14.3%	10% vs R: 0%	0%
Zach McKinstryL	16.5%	15.9%	11.8% vs R: 16.7%	12% vs R: 9.7%	13.5% vs R: 12.8%	7.5% vs R: 8%	15% vs R: 16.7%
Spencer TorkelsonR	28.5%	32.5%	34.2% vs R: 38.7%	19.2% vs R: 22.1%	23.5% vs R: 26.9%	16.9% vs R: 16.4%	28.6% vs R: 28.6%
Max ClarkL	16.7%	23.7%	28.6% vs R: 20%	15.1% vs R: 14.6%	25% vs R: 0%	22.2% vs R: 25%	0% vs R: 0%
Javier BáezR	14%	20.3%	18.4% vs R: 16.7%	14.3% vs R: 14.3%	14.3% vs R: 10%	41.7% vs R: 36.4%	11.1% vs R: 12.5%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Sweeper	4-Seam Fastball	Curveball	Sinker	Cutter
Gleyber TorresR	10.4% vs R: 11.6%	19.9% vs R: 22.4%	32% vs R: 31.2%	7.4% vs R: 7.8%	30.6% vs R: 33.9%
Hao-Yu LeeR	18.2% vs R: 14.3%	23.6% vs R: 26.9%	8% vs R: 11.1%	19.2% vs R: 18.9%	25.5% vs R: 31%
Kevin McGonigleL	23.5% vs R: 13.5%	9.3% vs R: 9.3%	13.5% vs R: 14.9%	5.5% vs R: 5.2%	11.8% vs R: 7.8%
Dillon DinglerR	17.5% vs R: 17.7%	14.7% vs R: 17.9%	40% vs R: 35.1%	10.1% vs R: 10.1%	13.2% vs R: 11.1%
Eduardo ValenciaR	20%	32.7% vs R: 33.3%	25%	13.3% vs R: 6.9%	21.4% vs R: 22.2%
Zach McKinstryL	25% vs R: 28.6%	7.7% vs R: 7%	16.3% vs R: 15.2%	7% vs R: 9.1%	12.5% vs R: 14.8%
Spencer TorkelsonR	48.3% vs R: 52.7%	20.8% vs R: 23.3%	41.5% vs R: 51.6%	11.7% vs R: 13.6%	30.9% vs R: 34.6%
Max ClarkL	28.6% vs R: 25%	9.2% vs R: 8.5%	16.7% vs R: 0%	10.8% vs R: 0%	0% vs R: 0%
Javier BáezR	34.4% vs R: 35.1%	21.2% vs R: 22.7%	45.5% vs R: 47.1%	11.8% vs R: 7.7%	13.6% vs R: 11.1%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Zach McKinstry	13	5	38.5%	.083
Spencer Torkelson	11	6	54.5%	.100
Gleyber Torres	9	5	55.6%	.125
Dillon Dingler	7	3	42.9%	.000
Javier Báez	6	2	33.3%	.500

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Gleyber Torres	21.5%	23.2%	25.6%	78.3%
Hao-Yu Lee	31.1%	29.3%	31.9%	70.7%
Kevin McGonigle	20.3%	25.8%	10.2%	82.1%
Dillon Dingler	34%	30%	26.2%	75.9%
Eduardo Valencia	35.1%	44.1%	31.8%	70.5%
Zach McKinstry	29.1%	37.7%	25%	81.2%
Spencer Torkelson	22.5%	22%	36.8%	68.2%
Max Clark	31.7%	26.5%	20%	83.9%
Javier Báez	44.3%	50.8%	25.9%	66%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-09	Minnesota Twins	7.3	11
2026-07-18	Pittsburgh Pirates	8.2	11
2026-07-23	Minnesota Twins	7.1	11
2026-07-28	Cincinnati Reds	7.1	12
2026-08-02	Arizona Diamondbacks	6.7	10
2026-08-08	Chicago White Sox	7.6	7
2026-08-14	San Diego Padres	10.7	5
2026-08-20	San Francisco Giants	10.9	11
2026-08-25	Los Angeles Angels	12.2	3
2026-09-01	Toronto Blue Jays	5.01	13
2026-09-06	Detroit Tigers	8.74	—

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

✓Pitcher K% is 36.8%

✓Whiff rate is 36.5%

✓CSW rate is 35.3%

!Opponent K% is 21.2%

✓Average pitch count is 91.9

✓WHIP is 1.08

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-01	Toronto Blue Jays	Home	7	13	97	1.09	17	76.5%
2026-08-25	Los Angeles Angels	Away	1.1	3	62	1.12	10	30%
2026-08-20	San Francisco Giants	Home	5.2	11	96	1.09	12	91.7%
2026-08-14	San Diego Padres	Home	4.1	5	91	1.08	14	35.7%
2026-08-08	Chicago White Sox	Away	5.2	7	102	1.04	15	46.7%
2026-08-02	Arizona Diamondbacks	Home	5.2	10	89	1.04	15	66.7%
2026-07-28	Cincinnati Reds	Away	7	12	101	1.07	14	85.7%
2026-07-23	Minnesota Twins	Home	7	11	97	1.1	18	61.1%
2026-07-18	Pittsburgh Pirates	Home	6	11	84	1.15	16	68.8%
2026-07-09	Minnesota Twins	Away	7	11	103	1.15	17	64.7%