MLB pitcher strikeout

Peter Lambert

vs Arizona Diamondbacks2026-09-06PinnacleRHP

Projection

5.2

Ensemble: 5.2

Market line

4.5

Pinnacle

Model edge

+0.7

Over 4.5

70% (7/10)· 2O streak

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Recommendation

Over 4.5

Pinnacle

Confidence

80/100

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Pitcher K%

19.3%

Whiff%

24.8%

CSW%

27.4%

WHIP

1.17

Avg IP

5.1

Avg pitches

92.5

Last 5 avg Ks

4.6

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

24.3%

Team chase

28.7%

Recent chase

33.9%

Recent contact

78.1%

Recent K% (7d)

26.4%

Opp K% vs RHP

19.2%

Opp K% vs LHP

20.8%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

4.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

5.2

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

70%

7 of 10 overs

Average Ks

5.7

Selected starts

Average margin

+1.2

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

70% (7/10)· 2O streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

4.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 4.5Model 5.2

Aug 31

vs CWS

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 26

@ NYY

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 20

vs LAA

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 14

vs SEA

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 8

@ SD

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

15.5

FanDuel

Model projection

16.5

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Outs

15.8

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

50% (5/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

15.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 15.5Model 16.5

Aug 31

vs CWS

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Aug 26

@ NYY

OVER

Outs

+1.5

Aug 20

vs LAA

UNDER

Outs

-4.5

Aug 14

vs SEA

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 8

@ SD

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

No prior starts found against Arizona Diamondbacks.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
Pinnacle	4.5	-125	-102	+0.7	-0.7	Best Over
DraftKings	4.5	-128	+100	+0.7	-0.7	—
FanDuel	4.5	-125	-102	+0.7	-0.7	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

75.5%

5+ Ks

56.6%Line

6+ Ks

36.6%

7+ Ks

20.2%

8+ Ks

9.2%

9+ Ks

10+ Ks

1.2%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	31.7%	24.3%	25.8%	93.7
Changeup	24.9%	29.3%	18.7%	86.5
Cutter	11%	12.8%	6.5%	91.3
Sinker	9.3%	6.5%	13.3%	93.3
Slider	8.6%	19.2%	12.5%	85.4
Sweeper	7.2%	26.9%	17.1%	83.6
Slurve	6.8%	14.8%	15.8%	80.2

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

34.8%

2-Strike Foul%

24.5%

2-Strike Contact%

80.2%

Expected Ks

29.6

K Luck

-6.6

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	30	33.3%	63.3%
1-2	36	30.6%	66.7%
2-2	27	37%	63%
3-2 (full)	18	22.2%	72.2%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Cutter	Sinker	Slider	Sweeper	Slurve
Lars NootbaarL	25.6%	18.5%	21.5% vs R: 19.5%	10.7% vs R: 11.3%	16.7% vs R: 16.7%	6.1% vs R: 5.3%	18.8% vs R: 17.9%	15% vs R: 10%	16.7%
Corbin CarrollL	21.6%	22.3%	22.5% vs R: 21.3%	14.8% vs R: 12.2%	26.5% vs R: 29.6%	17.1% vs R: 19%	20.7% vs R: 21.7%	17.2% vs R: 14.8%	—
Gabriel MorenoR	15.8%	15.1%	13.9% vs R: 14%	9.7% vs R: 13.2%	5% vs R: 9.1%	5.6% vs R: 5.9%	12.3% vs R: 13.2%	7.3% vs R: 7%	100%
Geraldo PerdomoS	11.6%	12.7%	7.8% vs R: 8.9%	6% vs R: 4.6%	12.2% vs R: 12.1%	17.4% vs R: 18.2%	11.8% vs R: 13.2%	8.5% vs R: 6.5%	—
Nolan ArenadoR	20.4%	20.4%	13% vs R: 14.7%	13.3% vs R: 13%	9.7% vs R: 8.7%	13.6% vs R: 11.9%	17.4% vs R: 15.7%	25% vs R: 25.7%	—
Tim TawaR	26.3%	24.5%	21.2% vs R: 19.4%	22.2% vs R: 28%	16% vs R: 15.8%	10.2% vs R: 8.6%	23.6% vs R: 19.5%	18% vs R: 17.9%	—
James McCannR	18.9%	29.5%	15.9% vs R: 24%	16.7% vs R: 12.5%	22.2% vs R: 40%	0% vs R: 0%	32.1% vs R: 36.4%	33.3% vs R: 50%	—
Ildemaro VargasS	9.3%	10.6%	11.4% vs R: 10.8%	9.5% vs R: 5.4%	0% vs R: 0%	14.3% vs R: 18.8%	13.3% vs R: 15.2%	18.4% vs R: 13.8%	—
Ryan WaldschmidtR	21.1%	32.2%	27% vs R: 26.8%	23.3% vs R: 40%	16.7% vs R: 25%	26.3% vs R: 28.6%	20.4% vs R: 16.1%	27.8% vs R: 32.6%	—

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Cutter	Sinker	Slider	Sweeper	Slurve
Lars NootbaarL	13.7% vs R: 11.4%	18.3% vs R: 19%	15.2% vs R: 12.9%	7.9% vs R: 8.2%	32.6% vs R: 30.6%	26.3% vs R: 7.7%	40%
Corbin CarrollL	29.4% vs R: 28.9%	22.2% vs R: 21.6%	19.7% vs R: 18.6%	18.1% vs R: 18.6%	23.9% vs R: 27.7%	26.6% vs R: 22.7%	—
Gabriel MorenoR	13% vs R: 13.6%	14.3% vs R: 15.9%	18% vs R: 22.2%	2.6% vs R: 0.8%	18.7% vs R: 18.5%	14.3% vs R: 12.8%	100%
Geraldo PerdomoS	9.3% vs R: 12%	9.9% vs R: 8.7%	13.8% vs R: 17.2%	8.3% vs R: 9.2%	14.5% vs R: 20.3%	7.7% vs R: 7.7%	—
Nolan ArenadoR	12.2% vs R: 14.4%	26.4% vs R: 25.5%	24.6% vs R: 30%	12.1% vs R: 10.9%	31.5% vs R: 27.8%	29.7% vs R: 28.1%	—
Tim TawaR	18.4% vs R: 18.8%	46.5% vs R: 48%	31.2% vs R: 31.6%	9.2% vs R: 10.1%	30.7% vs R: 30.4%	39.7% vs R: 42.9%	—
James McCannR	16.4% vs R: 13.9%	32.1% vs R: 30%	17.6% vs R: 27.3%	15.6% vs R: 12.5%	41.8% vs R: 43.9%	42.4% vs R: 54.5%	—
Ildemaro VargasS	7.5% vs R: 5.6%	14.3% vs R: 15.4%	10% vs R: 5.6%	7% vs R: 9.3%	19.6% vs R: 23.1%	25% vs R: 22.7%	—
Ryan WaldschmidtR	18.6% vs R: 21.5%	34.1% vs R: 33.3%	17.8% vs R: 25.8%	14.6% vs R: 13%	32.8% vs R: 39.1%	46.3% vs R: 50%	—

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Corbin Carroll	8	1	12.5%	.143
Geraldo Perdomo	6	1	16.7%	.000
Gabriel Moreno	5	0	0%	.400

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Lars Nootbaar	19.5%	22%	14.3%	83.6%
Corbin Carroll	28.1%	33.3%	30%	75.3%
Gabriel Moreno	27.3%	22.5%	16.7%	86.5%
Geraldo Perdomo	20.9%	25%	12.2%	90.1%
Nolan Arenado	31.5%	41.5%	14.3%	78%
Tim Tawa	32.1%	32.4%	41.3%	66.3%
James McCann	36.9%	53.8%	N/A	61.3%
Ildemaro Vargas	40%	50%	17.5%	86.5%
Ryan Waldschmidt	22.2%	24.6%	25.8%	75.5%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-11	Texas Rangers	5.8	7
2026-07-17	Baltimore Orioles	5.2	10
2026-07-22	Miami Marlins	6.6	3
2026-07-28	Los Angeles Angels	5.8	6
2026-08-02	Texas Rangers	6	8
2026-08-08	San Diego Padres	5.1	3
2026-08-14	Seattle Mariners	6.5	6
2026-08-20	Los Angeles Angels	6.9	3
2026-08-26	New York Yankees	6.3	5
2026-08-31	Chicago White Sox	5.8	6
2026-09-06	Arizona Diamondbacks	5.18	—

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 19.3%

!Whiff rate is 24.8%

!CSW rate is 27.4%

!Opponent K% is 18.5%

✓Average pitch count is 92.5

!WHIP is 1.17

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-08-31	Chicago White Sox	Home	4.2	6	104	1.24	15	40%
2026-08-26	New York Yankees	Away	5.2	5	102	1.23	16	31.2%
2026-08-20	Los Angeles Angels	Home	3.2	3	79	1.2	10	30%
2026-08-14	Seattle Mariners	Home	5	6	96	1.15	14	42.9%
2026-08-08	San Diego Padres	Away	5	3	97	1.15	11	27.3%
2026-08-02	Texas Rangers	Home	5.2	8	83	1.13	11	72.7%
2026-07-28	Los Angeles Angels	Away	5	6	90	1.15	11	54.5%
2026-07-22	Miami Marlins	Home	6	3	89	1.12	10	30%
2026-07-17	Baltimore Orioles	Home	6	10	104	1.11	15	66.7%
2026-07-11	Texas Rangers	Away	6	7	107	1.12	15	46.7%