MLB pitcher strikeout

Drew Rasmussen

@ Milwaukee Brewers2026-10-24DraftKingsRHP

Projection

6.3

Ensemble: 6.3

Market line

5.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+0.8

Over 5.5

60% (6/10)· 4O streak

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Recommendation

Over 5.5

DraftKings

Confidence

A+

90/100

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Pitcher K%

30.8%

Whiff%

29.2%

CSW%

31.4%

WHIP

0.82

Avg IP

6.6

Avg pitches

95.4

Last 5 avg Ks

7.4

Games logged

Matchup K%

N/A

Platoon K%

28.8%

Team chase

27.7%

Recent chase

N/A

Recent contact

N/A

Recent K% (7d)

N/A

Opp K% vs RHP

21.6%

Opp K% vs LHP

21.9%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

5.5

DraftKings

Model projection

6.3

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Ks

6.4

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.9

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

60% (6/10)· 4O streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

5.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 5.5Model 6.3

Oct 18

@ CLE

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Oct 12

vs CLE

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Oct 3

vs NYY

OVER

Strikeouts

+4.5

Sep 22

@ NYY

OVER

Strikeouts

+5.5

Sep 17

vs ATH

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

16.5

FanDuel

Model projection

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

80%

8 of 10 overs

Average Outs

19.1

Selected starts

Average margin

+2.6

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

80% (8/10)· 4O streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

16.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 16.5Model 17

Oct 18

@ CLE

OVER

Outs

+4.5

Oct 12

vs CLE

OVER

Outs

+1.5

Oct 3

vs NYY

OVER

Outs

+7.5

Sep 22

@ NYY

OVER

Outs

+3.5

Sep 17

vs ATH

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Milwaukee Brewers

No prior starts found against Milwaukee Brewers.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	5.5	-143	+112	+0.8	-0.8	Best Over
FanDuel	5.5	-150	+118	+0.8	-0.8	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

90.9%

5+ Ks

78.6%

6+ Ks

62.4%Line

7+ Ks

44%

8+ Ks

27.6%

9+ Ks

15%

10+ Ks

7.1%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	29.5%	25.9%	24.8%	95.6
Sinker	26.3%	18%	22.4%	95
Cutter	25.2%	22%	10.7%	89.7
Changeup	15.2%	30.4%	19.5%	89.1
Curveball	1.9%	33.3%	0%	79.3
Sweeper	1.9%	27.3%	14.3%	84.3

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

48.7%

2-Strike Foul%

23.2%

2-Strike Contact%

71.7%

Expected Ks

36.9

K Luck

+0.1

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	36	55.6%	44.4%
1-2	45	44.4%	55.6%
2-2	34	41.2%	58.8%
3-2 (full)	11	9.1%	90.9%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Sinker	Cutter	Changeup	Curveball	Sweeper
Jackson ChourioR	20.3%	24.6%	19.3% vs R: 20.5%	24.7% vs R: 23.4%	25.7% vs R: 24%	15.4% vs R: 17.9%	20.6% vs R: 25%	14.6% vs R: 15.9%
Brice TurangL	25.6%	24.6%	19.5% vs R: 22.5%	19.4% vs R: 21.4%	12.2% vs R: 3.7%	15% vs R: 13.4%	19.4% vs R: 20%	17.5% vs R: 17.9%
William ContrerasR	15.8%	14.2%	11% vs R: 11.6%	9.3% vs R: 10.2%	18.4% vs R: 22.2%	15% vs R: 15.8%	29.7% vs R: 11.1%	16.3% vs R: 15%
Jake BauersL	23.1%	28.5%	18% vs R: 20.8%	16.7% vs R: 14.3%	25.6% vs R: 26.7%	17.6% vs R: 16.7%	26.2% vs R: 34.7%	27.1% vs R: 29.4%
Christian YelichL	26.2%	27.2%	17.3% vs R: 18.2%	19% vs R: 16.7%	22.8% vs R: 22%	13.7% vs R: 14.7%	25.6% vs R: 25.7%	25.9% vs R: 25.8%
Garrett MitchellL	28.7%	32%	28.6% vs R: 27.1%	25.8% vs R: 29.4%	18% vs R: 18.4%	26.9% vs R: 32.7%	20.8% vs R: 19.6%	29.4% vs R: 39.1%
Cooper PrattR	21.4%	16.8%	15.7% vs R: 13.9%	12.8% vs R: 3.7%	6.2% vs R: 0%	10.8% vs R: 13.6%	14.3% vs R: 18.2%	18.2% vs R: 16.2%
Sal FrelickL	10.2%	9.8%	10% vs R: 9.6%	10.3% vs R: 9.5%	10.7% vs R: 14.3%	8.3% vs R: 4.3%	5.9% vs R: 7.7%	8.9% vs R: 0%
David HamiltonL	27.2%	20.9%	14.3% vs R: 11%	13% vs R: 14.6%	24.3% vs R: 26.5%	18% vs R: 15.6%	26.9% vs R: 31.8%	23.8% vs R: 13.8%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Sinker	Cutter	Changeup	Curveball	Sweeper
Jackson ChourioR	24.4% vs R: 21.7%	10% vs R: 11.8%	28.3% vs R: 28.4%	20.4% vs R: 30.3%	25% vs R: 33.3%	27.9% vs R: 30.7%
Brice TurangL	20.7% vs R: 21.7%	11.1% vs R: 12.4%	17.3% vs R: 7.4%	21.1% vs R: 18.3%	21.2% vs R: 20.9%	24.6% vs R: 20.9%
William ContrerasR	15.2% vs R: 14.6%	7.9% vs R: 5.3%	20.4% vs R: 26.5%	23.3% vs R: 32%	27.9% vs R: 11.8%	25.2% vs R: 24.2%
Jake BauersL	18.2% vs R: 18.8%	14.2% vs R: 17%	33.3% vs R: 36.6%	42.9% vs R: 39.8%	40.8% vs R: 44.6%	33.8% vs R: 31.6%
Christian YelichL	22.3% vs R: 23.5%	14.5% vs R: 22.2%	28.3% vs R: 26.3%	19.7% vs R: 21.7%	40.5% vs R: 41%	34.6% vs R: 39.6%
Garrett MitchellL	25% vs R: 25.7%	17.9% vs R: 14.9%	36.8% vs R: 38.4%	49.5% vs R: 50%	28.8% vs R: 27.5%	40.4% vs R: 41.2%
Cooper PrattR	14.4% vs R: 10.4%	16.5% vs R: 14.3%	18.4% vs R: 20%	18% vs R: 23.1%	13% vs R: 16.7%	22.4% vs R: 20.9%
Sal FrelickL	8.6% vs R: 7.3%	2.7% vs R: 1.7%	9.2% vs R: 7.1%	8.6% vs R: 7.1%	14.3% vs R: 17.4%	14.9% vs R: 0%
David HamiltonL	12.1% vs R: 10.8%	12.4% vs R: 13%	11% vs R: 11.9%	27.9% vs R: 27.3%	34.6% vs R: 37.5%	30.8% vs R: 21.6%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Jake Bauers	9	3	33.3%	.375
William Contreras	6	0	0%	.400
Brice Turang	5	0	0%	.250
Sal Frelick	5	2	40%	.000
Christian Yelich	4	2	50%	.250
Jackson Chourio	3	0	0%	.000
Garrett Mitchell	2	1	50%	.500
David Hamilton	2	1	50%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Jackson Chourio	34.3%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Brice Turang	26.1%	N/A	N/A	N/A
William Contreras	27.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Jake Bauers	23.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Christian Yelich	26.8%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Garrett Mitchell	22.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Cooper Pratt	30.5%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Sal Frelick	28.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A
David Hamilton	28.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-09	New York Yankees	7.2	2
2026-07-21	Toronto Blue Jays	5.8	5
2026-07-26	Cleveland Guardians	5.2	9
2026-08-01	Chicago White Sox	5.9	10
2026-08-07	Seattle Mariners	4.6	8
2026-08-12	Athletics	7.1	3
2026-08-19	Toronto Blue Jays	7	5
2026-08-24	Detroit Tigers	6.8	5
2026-08-30	San Diego Padres	6.8	6
2026-09-05	Texas Rangers	5.56	7
2026-09-11	Houston Astros	5.67	4
2026-09-17	Athletics	6.12	3
2026-09-22	New York Yankees	5.28	11
2026-10-03	New York Yankees	5.9	10
2026-10-12	Cleveland Guardians	6.36	7
2026-10-18	Cleveland Guardians	5.37	6
2026-10-24	Milwaukee Brewers	6.33	—

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

✓Pitcher K% is 30.8%

✓Whiff rate is 29.2%

✓CSW rate is 31.4%

!Opponent K% is 22.7%

✓Average pitch count is 95.4

✓WHIP is 0.82

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-10-18	Cleveland Guardians	Away	7	6	95	0.76	16	37.5%
2026-10-12	Cleveland Guardians	Home	6	7	91	0.79	12	58.3%
2026-10-03	New York Yankees	Home	8	10	101	0.38	18	55.6%
2026-09-22	New York Yankees	Away	6.2	11	114	0.91	19	57.9%
2026-09-17	Athletics	Home	5	3	76	0.93	11	27.3%
2026-09-11	Houston Astros	Home	7	4	92	0.92	9	44.4%
2026-09-05	Texas Rangers	Away	7	7	97	0.91	12	58.3%
2026-08-30	San Diego Padres	Home	6	6	97	0.93	13	46.2%
2026-08-24	Detroit Tigers	Away	6	5	103	0.93	16	31.2%
2026-08-19	Toronto Blue Jays	Home	5	5	86	0.95	13	38.5%