MLB pitcher strikeout
Dylan Cease
Projection
10.3
Model strikeouts
Market line
7.5
BetMGM
Model edge
+2.8
Over 7.5
Recommendation
Over 7.5
BetMGM
Confidence
A+
100/100
Pitcher K%
36.3%
Whiff%
30.2%
CSW%
31.8%
WHIP
1.18
Avg IP
5.9
Avg pitches
101.9
Last 5 avg Ks
9.0
Games logged
18
Matchup K%
10.4%
Platoon K%
35.3%
Team chase
30.8%
Recent chase
34.4%
Recent contact
80.2%
Prop performance terminal
STRIKEOUT RESULTS
Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.
Market line
7.5
BetMGM
Model projection
10.3
Expected strikeouts
Hit rate
80%
8 of 10 overs
Average Ks
8.9
Selected starts
Average margin
+1.4
Vs selected line
Current streak
1
UNDER
Interactive line simulator
Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.
Active line
7.5
Over
8
Under
2
Push
0
Jul 20
Tampa Bay Rays
Strikeouts
7
-0.5
Jul 8
San Francisco Giants
Strikeouts
11
+3.5
Jul 3
Seattle Mariners
Strikeouts
9
+1.5
Jun 27
Texas Rangers
Strikeouts
10
+2.5
Jun 22
Houston Astros
Strikeouts
8
+0.5
Analytics
Sportsbook Lines
| Book | Line | Over odds | Under odds | Over edge | Under edge | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 7.5 | +100 | -135 | +2.8 | -2.8 | Best Over |
| Bovada | 7.5 | +110 | -145 | +2.8 | -2.8 | — |
| Caesars | 7.5 | +109 | -- | +2.8 | -2.8 | — |
| DraftKings | 7.5 | +107 | -140 | +2.8 | -2.8 | — |
| ESPN BET | 7.5 | +105 | -140 | +2.8 | -2.8 | — |
| FanDuel | 7.5 | -125 | -- | +2.8 | -2.8 | — |
Analytics
Batter vs. Pitcher History
| Batter | PA | K | K% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Díaz | 25 | 1 | 4% |
| Cedric Mullins | 25 | 3 | 12% |
| Junior Caminero | 11 | 1 | 9.1% |
| Chandler Simpson | 8 | 1 | 12.5% |
| Taylor Walls | 8 | 2 | 25% |
| Nick Fortes | 7 | 0 | 0% |
| Jonathan Aranda | 6 | 2 | 33.3% |
| Richie Palacios | 6 | 4 | 66.7% |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | 2 | 1 | 50% |
Analytics
Lineup Chase Rate
| Batter | Chase rate | Recent chase | Recent K% | Recent contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Díaz | 28.9% | 35.1% | 11.1% | 92.1% |
| Jonathan Aranda | 27.6% | 32.4% | 19.5% | 84% |
| Junior Caminero | 28% | 27.7% | 20.5% | 82.4% |
| Cedric Mullins | 31.2% | 39.6% | 25% | 65.5% |
| Chandler Simpson | 29.7% | 35.7% | 5.7% | 92.6% |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | 31.6% | 38.2% | 22.7% | 85.1% |
| Richie Palacios | 34.8% | 29.8% | 20% | 78% |
| Nick Fortes | 40.2% | 42.1% | 21.7% | 69.8% |
| Taylor Walls | 25.3% | 28.8% | 27.6% | 72.7% |
Analytics
Projection History
| Date | Opponent | Projected | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | San Francisco Giants | 11.8 | 11 |
| 2026-07-14 | National League All-Stars | 11.3 | 3 |
| 2026-07-20 | Tampa Bay Rays | 10.3 | 7 |
Analytics
Why This Projection?
Analytics
Last 10 Starts
| Date | Opponent | H/A | IP | Ks | Pitches | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Tampa Bay Rays | Home | 6 | 7 | 101 | 1.14 |
| 2026-07-08 | San Francisco Giants | Away | 8 | 11 | 118 | 1.13 |
| 2026-07-03 | Seattle Mariners | Away | 7 | 9 | 102 | 1.18 |
| 2026-06-27 | Texas Rangers | Home | 4.2 | 10 | 107 | 1.24 |
| 2026-06-22 | Houston Astros | Home | 5.2 | 8 | 110 | 1.19 |
| 2026-06-16 | Boston Red Sox | Away | 5 | 7 | 108 | 1.19 |
| 2026-06-09 | Philadelphia Phillies | Home | 6 | 11 | 93 | 1.16 |
| 2026-05-24 | Pittsburgh Pirates | Home | 4.2 | 8 | 76 | 1.21 |
| 2026-05-19 | New York Yankees | Away | 5 | 9 | 100 | 1.22 |
| 2026-05-13 | Tampa Bay Rays | Home | 7 | 9 | 99 | 1.18 |