MLB pitcher strikeout

Bailey Ober

@ Chicago White Sox2026-09-06DraftKingsRHP

Projection

3.6

Ensemble: 3.6

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model edge

No qualifying edge

50% (5/10)· 1O streak

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Recommendation

No recommendation

Confidence

80/100

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Pitcher K%

14.4%

Whiff%

18.6%

CSW%

23%

WHIP

1.23

Avg IP

5.2

Avg pitches

86.4

Last 5 avg Ks

3.2

Games logged

Matchup K%

14.8%

Platoon K%

15%

Team chase

28.7%

Recent chase

25.8%

Recent contact

78.5%

Recent K% (7d)

22.7%

Opp K% vs RHP

23%

Opp K% vs LHP

23.9%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model projection

3.6

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Ks

3.6

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.1

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

50% (5/10)· 1O streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 3.6

Aug 29

vs CWS

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 23

@ SD

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 17

vs ATL

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 11

vs BAL

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 6

@ KC

UNDER

Strikeouts

-3.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

15.5

DraftKings

Model projection

14.8

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Outs

15.4

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.1

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

40% (4/10)· 3U streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

15.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 15.5Model 14.8

Aug 29

vs CWS

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 23

@ SD

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 17

vs ATL

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 11

vs BAL

OVER

Outs

+2.5

Aug 6

@ KC

OVER

Outs

+2.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Chicago White Sox

No prior starts found against Chicago White Sox.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	3.5	-134	+105	+0.1	-0.1	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

62.9%Line

5+ Ks

41.7%

6+ Ks

23%

7+ Ks

11.3%

8+ Ks

3.9%

9+ Ks

1.4%

10+ Ks

0.5%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	33.6%	11.8%	7.9%	87.4
Changeup	30.6%	18.9%	13.3%	82.2
Slider	19.3%	12.3%	15.8%	82.1
Sweeper	14.1%	45.7%	22.4%	75.4
Sinker	1.6%	0%	0%	88

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

32%

2-Strike Foul%

29.4%

2-Strike Contact%

85%

Expected Ks

17.4

K Luck

-1.4

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	20	55%	45%
1-2	29	31%	69%
2-2	26	26.9%	73.1%
3-2 (full)	21	19%	81%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Slider	Sweeper	Sinker
Sam AntonacciL	21.2%	14.4%	16% vs R: 15.3%	12.3% vs R: 11.1%	16.9% vs R: 10.9%	13.3% vs R: 11.8%	14.9% vs R: 16.7%
Munetaka MurakamiL	36.9%	32.8%	26.3% vs R: 27.1%	18.9% vs R: 17.7%	26.2% vs R: 24.3%	24.7% vs R: 30%	27.1% vs R: 22.7%
Miguel VargasR	16%	18.1%	16.9% vs R: 17%	9.3% vs R: 17.6%	16% vs R: 16.7%	10.7% vs R: 8.3%	19% vs R: 16.9%
Andrew BenintendiL	34.8%	22%	22.3% vs R: 21.1%	22% vs R: 21.6%	30.4% vs R: 25.8%	8.8% vs R: 8%	21.4% vs R: 21.7%
Braden MontgomeryS	26.8%	17.1%	12.1% vs R: 7.4%	18.5% vs R: 16.7%	20% vs R: 18.5%	5.3% vs R: 6.2%	34.5% vs R: 28.6%
Colson MontgomeryL	27.6%	36.6%	32.5% vs R: 34.4%	25.4% vs R: 26.7%	27.3% vs R: 31.2%	36.4% vs R: 41.4%	28.2% vs R: 23.7%
Chase MeidrothR	18.8%	23%	20.2% vs R: 22.1%	19.6% vs R: 25%	19.6% vs R: 20%	23.1% vs R: 24.5%	12.6% vs R: 14%
Tristan PetersL	20.4%	17.5%	18.2% vs R: 17.7%	19% vs R: 19.6%	22.2% vs R: 20.9%	9.5% vs R: 5.9%	10.6% vs R: 3.3%
Drew RomoS	21.1%	23.6%	18.5% vs R: 16.7%	25.6% vs R: 27.6%	24.1% vs R: 25%	57.1% vs R: 80%	13.3% vs R: 20%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Slider	Sweeper	Sinker
Sam AntonacciL	12.5% vs R: 12.9%	15.9% vs R: 14.5%	14% vs R: 10.8%	12.8% vs R: 10.3%	8.6% vs R: 10.4%
Munetaka MurakamiL	37.5% vs R: 36.5%	45.9% vs R: 48.8%	53.5% vs R: 52.4%	36.4% vs R: 36.5%	29.4% vs R: 26.8%
Miguel VargasR	18.6% vs R: 20.5%	11.2% vs R: 23.5%	24.8% vs R: 27.7%	14.5% vs R: 15.1%	7.7% vs R: 6.1%
Andrew BenintendiL	21.7% vs R: 21.3%	28.1% vs R: 28.1%	38.3% vs R: 31%	17.3% vs R: 16.7%	17.8% vs R: 17.6%
Braden MontgomeryS	21.3% vs R: 12.6%	30.4% vs R: 34.3%	25.8% vs R: 24%	25% vs R: 25%	21.4% vs R: 20.3%
Colson MontgomeryL	30.3% vs R: 30.8%	38.1% vs R: 36.8%	42.1% vs R: 48.1%	42.7% vs R: 53.3%	25.6% vs R: 23.6%
Chase MeidrothR	14% vs R: 15.8%	30.6% vs R: 31%	26.2% vs R: 27.2%	21.9% vs R: 23.1%	7.5% vs R: 8%
Tristan PetersL	18.7% vs R: 18.2%	24% vs R: 24.3%	32.3% vs R: 30.6%	15.6% vs R: 12%	14.6% vs R: 11.4%
Drew RomoS	19.5% vs R: 17.2%	37.5% vs R: 41.4%	22.9% vs R: 23.1%	43.8% vs R: 53.8%	16.7% vs R: 20%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Andrew Benintendi	27	4	14.8%	.240
Miguel Vargas	5	2	40%	.000
Colson Montgomery	4	1	25%	.250
Chase Meidroth	4	1	25%	.250
Sam Antonacci	3	1	33.3%	.000
Munetaka Murakami	3	1	33.3%	.000
Braden Montgomery	2	0	0%	.000
Tristan Peters	2	0	0%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Sam Antonacci	21.2%	18.8%	14%	89.5%
Munetaka Murakami	22.8%	23.1%	41.5%	61.5%
Miguel Vargas	22.5%	13.4%	17%	88.4%
Andrew Benintendi	33.5%	38%	17.6%	88.1%
Braden Montgomery	27.3%	26.4%	6.5%	76.3%
Colson Montgomery	33.3%	29.3%	38.3%	72%
Chase Meidroth	30%	29.2%	17.8%	79.1%
Tristan Peters	30.8%	23.9%	14%	78.3%
Drew Romo	36.7%	30%	18.2%	73.2%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-09	Cleveland Guardians	2.6	5
2026-07-17	Chicago Cubs	2.3	7
2026-07-22	Cleveland Guardians	3.1	2
2026-07-30	Kansas City Royals	3.9	3
2026-08-06	Kansas City Royals	3.3	0
2026-08-11	Baltimore Orioles	2.5	4
2026-08-17	Atlanta Braves	2.9	4
2026-08-23	San Diego Padres	2.7	3
2026-08-29	Chicago White Sox	2.7	5
2026-09-06	Chicago White Sox	3.58	—

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 14.4%

!Whiff rate is 18.6%

!CSW rate is 23%

✓Opponent K% is 23.3%

!Average pitch count is 86.4

!WHIP is 1.23

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-08-29	Chicago White Sox	Home	5	5	80	1.24	9	55.6%
2026-08-23	San Diego Padres	Away	5	3	87	1.26	12	25%
2026-08-17	Atlanta Braves	Home	4.1	4	94	1.25	13	30.8%
2026-08-11	Baltimore Orioles	Home	6	4	100	1.23	11	36.4%
2026-08-06	Kansas City Royals	Away	6	0	74	1.22	5	0%
2026-07-30	Kansas City Royals	Home	6	3	79	1.23	11	27.3%
2026-07-22	Cleveland Guardians	Away	4	2	89	1.25	11	18.2%
2026-07-17	Chicago Cubs	Away	5.1	7	88	1.19	13	53.8%
2026-07-09	Cleveland Guardians	Home	5	5	74	1.19	10	50%
2026-05-30	Pittsburgh Pirates	Away	4.2	3	97	1.22	—	—