MLB pitcher strikeout

Tyler Mahle

vs Los Angeles Dodgers2026-10-07DraftKingsRHP

Projection

5.3

Ensemble: 5.0

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+1.8

Over 3.5

70% (7/10)· 2O streak

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Recommendation

Over 3.5

DraftKings

Confidence

B+

70/100

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Pitcher K%

18.2%

Whiff%

23.1%

CSW%

28.4%

WHIP

1.28

Avg IP

Avg pitches

91.5

Last 5 avg Ks

5.0

Games logged

Matchup K%

19.1%

Platoon K%

21.5%

Team chase

28.2%

Recent chase

38.4%

Recent contact

70.5%

Recent K% (7d)

N/A

Opp K% vs RHP

21.4%

Opp K% vs LHP

20.1%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

DraftKings

Model projection

5.3

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

70%

7 of 10 overs

Average Ks

5.7

Selected starts

Average margin

+2.2

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

70% (7/10)· 2O streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 5.3

Sep 24

vs CIN

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Sep 18

@ HOU

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Sep 12

vs PHI

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Sep 6

@ PHI

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 30

vs COL

OVER

Strikeouts

+5.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

13.5

FanDuel

Model projection

16.6

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

100%

10 of 10 overs

Average Outs

18.0

Selected starts

Average margin

+4.5

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

100% (10/10)· 10O streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

13.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 13.5Model 16.6

Sep 24

vs CIN

OVER

Outs

+1.5

Sep 18

@ HOU

OVER

Outs

+4.5

Sep 12

vs PHI

OVER

Outs

+7.5

Sep 6

@ PHI

OVER

Outs

+4.5

Aug 30

vs COL

OVER

Outs

+6.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

No prior starts found against Los Angeles Dodgers.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	3.5	-168	+131	+1.8	-1.8	Best Over
FanDuel	4.5	+128	-164	+0.8	-0.8	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

80.9%Line

5+ Ks

64.9%

6+ Ks

46.2%

7+ Ks

28.4%

8+ Ks

15.2%

9+ Ks

6.9%

10+ Ks

2.9%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	48.6%	23.9%	23.1%	93.3
Splitter	33.8%	23.7%	18.3%	86.9
Cutter	15%	17.9%	18.5%	87.6
Slider	2.6%	0%	0%	86

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

36.1%

2-Strike Foul%

25.5%

2-Strike Contact%

81.3%

Expected Ks

25.6

K Luck

-3.6

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	30	36.7%	63.3%
1-2	26	42.3%	57.7%
2-2	31	41.9%	58.1%
3-2 (full)	18	44.4%	55.6%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Splitter	Cutter	Slider
Mookie BettsR	7.6%	12.6%	7.7% vs R: 7%	20% vs R: 21.4%	20.7% vs R: 26.1%	19.8% vs R: 20%
Freddie FreemanL	20.6%	16.2%	17% vs R: 13%	0% vs R: 0%	10.2% vs R: 13.9%	16.1% vs R: 16.3%
Will SmithR	21.7%	14%	12.1% vs R: 9.2%	22.2% vs R: 28.6%	6.2% vs R: 0%	9.3% vs R: 7.1%
Shohei OhtaniL	25%	24.3%	23.3% vs R: 19.8%	21.2% vs R: 16.7%	22.6% vs R: 20.8%	24.5% vs R: 23.3%
Teoscar HernándezR	22.2%	29.9%	19.9% vs R: 21.4%	33.3% vs R: 33.3%	21.9% vs R: 26.3%	30.2% vs R: 29.6%
Max MuncyL	27.6%	24.1%	16.2% vs R: 16.9%	37.9% vs R: 36%	22.2% vs R: 25%	26.2% vs R: 24%
Enrique HernándezR	32.7%	24.4%	29.4% vs R: 50%	—	25%	33.3% vs R: 100%
Kyle TuckerL	16.8%	16.7%	15.1% vs R: 13.4%	5.1% vs R: 5.4%	23.1% vs R: 21.4%	12.3% vs R: 17.6%
Andy PagesR	17.4%	20.5%	15.6% vs R: 16.1%	10% vs R: 7.7%	13.8% vs R: 11.1%	17.4% vs R: 18.9%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Splitter	Cutter	Slider
Mookie BettsR	5.4% vs R: 6.6%	27.8% vs R: 29.4%	14% vs R: 18.2%	25.2% vs R: 25.9%
Freddie FreemanL	19.5% vs R: 15.5%	13.3% vs R: 12%	19.8% vs R: 17.4%	31.1% vs R: 29.2%
Will SmithR	14.3% vs R: 11.3%	25% vs R: 18.2%	18.8% vs R: 20.8%	15.6% vs R: 15.9%
Shohei OhtaniL	23.6% vs R: 25.3%	29.3% vs R: 26.3%	21.6% vs R: 22.1%	37.3% vs R: 36.4%
Teoscar HernándezR	24% vs R: 23.7%	51.5% vs R: 47.8%	30.1% vs R: 34.8%	40.5% vs R: 39.1%
Max MuncyL	17.8% vs R: 17.2%	47.3% vs R: 47.1%	15.1% vs R: 10.8%	29.9% vs R: 27.6%
Enrique HernándezR	15.2% vs R: 20%	—	33.3%	20.8% vs R: 7.7%
Kyle TuckerL	16.3% vs R: 15.1%	32.7% vs R: 33.3%	13.1% vs R: 11%	25.1% vs R: 22.6%
Andy PagesR	17.6% vs R: 19.8%	27.3% vs R: 0%	14.8% vs R: 14.3%	23.6% vs R: 24.5%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Freddie Freeman	22	3	13.6%	.421
Max Muncy	22	6	27.3%	.316
Shohei Ohtani	12	4	33.3%	.083
Will Smith	11	0	0%	.300
Mookie Betts	9	2	22.2%	.125
Teoscar Hernández	9	1	11.1%	.222
Kyle Tucker	9	2	22.2%	.000
Enrique Hernández	3	0	0%	.667
Andy Pages	3	1	33.3%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Mookie Betts	21%	25.6%	18.8%	80%
Freddie Freeman	32.5%	N/A	N/A	74.1%
Will Smith	19.6%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Shohei Ohtani	32.8%	36.7%	35.3%	56.7%
Teoscar Hernández	36.2%	69.6%	N/A	60%
Max Muncy	26.3%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Enrique Hernández	32.7%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Kyle Tucker	22.6%	33.3%	17.6%	84%
Andy Pages	29.8%	26.8%	31.2%	68%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-11	Colorado Rockies	5.2	4
2026-07-21	Kansas City Royals	3.3	4
2026-07-27	Milwaukee Brewers	4.9	3
2026-08-01	San Diego Padres	4.4	9
2026-08-07	New York Yankees	5.4	9
2026-08-12	New York Mets	4.8	7
2026-08-18	Minnesota Twins	6.1	3
2026-08-23	Milwaukee Brewers	5.9	4
2026-08-30	Colorado Rockies	6.3	9
2026-09-06	Philadelphia Phillies	5.09	3
2026-09-12	Philadelphia Phillies	6.7	3
2026-09-18	Houston Astros	4.89	6
2026-09-24	Cincinnati Reds	5.77	4
2026-09-30	Philadelphia Phillies	4.91	6
2026-10-07	Los Angeles Dodgers	5.28	4

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 18.2%

!Whiff rate is 23.1%

!CSW rate is 28.4%

!Opponent K% is 20.1%

✓Average pitch count is 91.5

!WHIP is 1.28

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-24	Cincinnati Reds	Home	5	4	91	1.23	10	40%
2026-09-18	Houston Astros	Away	6	6	98	1.22	13	46.2%
2026-09-12	Philadelphia Phillies	Home	7	3	97	1.25	14	21.4%
2026-09-06	Philadelphia Phillies	Away	6	3	94	1.27	11	27.3%
2026-08-30	Colorado Rockies	Home	6.2	9	89	1.29	14	64.3%
2026-08-23	Milwaukee Brewers	Away	5	4	94	1.32	13	30.8%
2026-08-18	Minnesota Twins	Away	6.2	3	76	1.31	10	30%
2026-08-12	New York Mets	Home	6	7	93	1.32	16	43.8%
2026-08-07	New York Yankees	Away	6	9	92	1.36	14	64.3%
2026-08-01	San Diego Padres	Away	5.2	9	99	1.39	15	60%