MLB pitcher strikeout
Reynaldo López
Projection
1.4
Model strikeouts
Market line
4.5
Caesars
Model edge
+3.1
Under 4.5
Recommendation
Under 4.5
Caesars
Confidence
B+
75/100
Pitcher K%
22%
Whiff%
24.3%
CSW%
27.2%
WHIP
1.37
Avg IP
3.2
Avg pitches
53.8
Last 5 avg Ks
3.6
Games logged
22
Matchup K%
22.2%
Platoon K%
20.5%
Team chase
29.2%
Recent chase
26.1%
Recent contact
80.9%
Prop performance terminal
STRIKEOUT RESULTS
Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.
Market line
4.5
Caesars
Model projection
1.4
Expected strikeouts
Hit rate
20%
2 of 10 overs
Average Ks
2.5
Selected starts
Average margin
-2.0
Vs selected line
Current streak
1
UNDER
Interactive line simulator
Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.
Active line
4.5
Over
2
Under
8
Push
0
Jul 11
St. Louis Cardinals
Strikeouts
3
-1.5
Jul 6
New York Mets
Strikeouts
5
+0.5
Jul 1
St. Louis Cardinals
Strikeouts
6
+1.5
Jun 26
San Francisco Giants
Strikeouts
1
-3.5
Jun 21
Milwaukee Brewers
Strikeouts
3
-1.5
Analytics
Sportsbook Lines
| Book | Line | Over odds | Under odds | Over edge | Under edge | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars | 4.5 | +118 | -- | -3.1 | +3.1 | Best Under |
| Bovada | 4.5 | +115 | -150 | -3.1 | +3.1 | — |
| FanDuel | 4.5 | +118 | -150 | -3.1 | +3.1 | — |
| DraftKings | 4.5 | +117 | -149 | -3.1 | +3.1 | — |
| BetMGM | 4.5 | +115 | -155 | -3.1 | +3.1 | — |
| ESPN BET | 4.5 | +110 | -155 | -3.1 | +3.1 | — |
Analytics
Batter vs. Pitcher History
| Batter | PA | K | K% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xander Bogaerts | 15 | 2 | 13.3% |
| Manny Machado | 12 | 5 | 41.7% |
| Jake Cronenworth | 10 | 2 | 20% |
| Jackson Merrill | 8 | 1 | 12.5% |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 6 | 0 | 0% |
| Gavin Sheets | 6 | 1 | 16.7% |
| Luis Rengifo | 6 | 0 | 0% |
| Luis Campusano | 5 | 0 | 0% |
| Ty France | 3 | 0 | 0% |
Analytics
Lineup Chase Rate
| Batter | Chase rate | Recent chase | Recent K% | Recent contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 27.1% | 25% | 17.1% | 73% |
| Jake Cronenworth | 29.5% | 39% | 17.2% | 85.2% |
| Manny Machado | 33.5% | 28.4% | 8.8% | 78.3% |
| Ty France | 32.7% | 29.3% | 6.5% | 82.9% |
| Jackson Merrill | 34.7% | 40.6% | 21.4% | 81.1% |
| Luis Campusano | 20.7% | 9.4% | 15% | 87.1% |
| Gavin Sheets | 30% | 20% | 18.2% | 85.4% |
| Xander Bogaerts | 24.6% | 22.1% | 21.4% | 81% |
| Luis Rengifo | 30.2% | 21.4% | N/A | 73.9% |
Analytics
Projection History
| Date | Opponent | Projected | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | St. Louis Cardinals | 1.7 | 3 |
| 2026-07-21 | San Diego Padres | 1.4 | — |
Analytics
Why This Projection?
Analytics
Last 10 Starts
| Date | Opponent | H/A | IP | Ks | Pitches | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | St. Louis Cardinals | Away | 5 | 3 | 85 | 1.26 |
| 2026-07-06 | New York Mets | Home | 5 | 5 | 80 | 1.27 |
| 2026-07-01 | St. Louis Cardinals | Home | 5 | 6 | 69 | 1.3 |
| 2026-06-26 | San Francisco Giants | Away | 3 | 1 | 57 | 1.37 |
| 2026-06-21 | Milwaukee Brewers | Home | 3 | 3 | 58 | 1.37 |
| 2026-06-16 | San Francisco Giants | Home | 2 | 1 | 30 | 1.43 |
| 2026-06-14 | New York Mets | Away | 1 | 1 | 24 | 1.47 |
| 2026-06-07 | Pittsburgh Pirates | Home | 1.1 | 2 | 27 | 1.46 |
| 2026-06-04 | Toronto Blue Jays | Home | 1 | 1 | 36 | 1.46 |
| 2026-05-31 | Cincinnati Reds | Away | 1 | 2 | 13 | 1.33 |