MLB pitcher strikeout
Luis Castillo
Projection
3.8
Model strikeouts
Market line
5.5
Caesars
Model edge
+1.7
Under 5.5
Recommendation
Under 5.5
Caesars
Confidence
A
85/100
Pitcher K%
16.8%
Whiff%
18.6%
CSW%
26.3%
WHIP
1.4
Avg IP
5.2
Avg pitches
83.6
Last 5 avg Ks
4.0
Games logged
18
Matchup K%
20.5%
Platoon K%
21.6%
Team chase
32%
Recent chase
29.5%
Recent contact
77.3%
Prop performance terminal
STRIKEOUT RESULTS
Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.
Market line
5.5
Caesars
Model projection
3.8
Expected strikeouts
Hit rate
20%
2 of 10 overs
Average Ks
4.4
Selected starts
Average margin
-1.1
Vs selected line
Current streak
7
UNDER
Interactive line simulator
Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.
Active line
5.5
Over
2
Under
8
Push
0
Jul 10
Tampa Bay Rays
Strikeouts
4
-1.5
Jul 3
Toronto Blue Jays
Strikeouts
4
-1.5
Jun 26
Cleveland Guardians
Strikeouts
4
-1.5
Jun 19
Boston Red Sox
Strikeouts
4
-1.5
Jun 13
Washington Nationals
Strikeouts
4
-1.5
Analytics
Sportsbook Lines
| Book | Line | Over odds | Under odds | Over edge | Under edge | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars | 5.5 | -124 | -- | -1.7 | +1.7 | Best Under |
| Bovada | 5.5 | -125 | -105 | -1.7 | +1.7 | — |
| FanDuel | 5.5 | -122 | -104 | -1.7 | +1.7 | — |
| DraftKings | 5.5 | -120 | -107 | -1.7 | +1.7 | — |
| BetMGM | 5.5 | -130 | -105 | -1.7 | +1.7 | — |
| ESPN BET | 5.5 | -125 | -110 | -1.7 | +1.7 | — |
Analytics
Batter vs. Pitcher History
| Batter | PA | K | K% |
|---|---|---|---|
| JJ Bleday | 15 | 3 | 20% |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 14 | 4 | 28.6% |
| Jose Trevino | 10 | 1 | 10% |
| Elly De La Cruz | 3 | 0 | 0% |
| TJ Friedl | 3 | 0 | 0% |
Analytics
Lineup Chase Rate
| Batter | Chase rate | Recent chase | Recent K% | Recent contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz | 27.1% | 20.8% | 14.3% | 87.5% |
| Sal Stewart | 29.4% | 41.4% | 17.1% | 83.3% |
| JJ Bleday | 22.5% | 19.8% | 23.7% | 72% |
| Eugenio Suárez | 33.3% | 34.6% | 50% | 63% |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 27.9% | N/A | N/A | 78.9% |
| Noelvi Marte | 33.5% | 37.5% | 27.3% | 73% |
| Jose Trevino | 48.8% | N/A | N/A | 77.8% |
| TJ Friedl | 25.1% | 19.4% | 15.8% | 80.6% |
| Edwin Arroyo | 40% | 32.7% | 14.3% | 79.6% |
Analytics
Projection History
| Date | Opponent | Projected | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Tampa Bay Rays | 2.8 | 4 |
| 2026-07-21 | Cincinnati Reds | 3.8 | — |
Analytics
Why This Projection?
Analytics
Last 10 Starts
| Date | Opponent | H/A | IP | Ks | Pitches | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Tampa Bay Rays | Away | 5 | 4 | 91 | 1.37 |
| 2026-07-03 | Toronto Blue Jays | Home | 6 | 4 | 101 | 1.33 |
| 2026-06-26 | Cleveland Guardians | Away | 6 | 4 | 91 | 1.36 |
| 2026-06-19 | Boston Red Sox | Home | 4 | 4 | 63 | 1.4 |
| 2026-06-13 | Washington Nationals | Away | 5.2 | 4 | 84 | 1.38 |
| 2026-06-07 | Detroit Tigers | Away | 5.2 | 5 | 100 | 1.36 |
| 2026-05-31 | Arizona Diamondbacks | Home | 5 | 3 | 71 | 1.45 |
| 2026-05-25 | Athletics | Away | 4 | 6 | 68 | 1.51 |
| 2026-05-19 | Chicago White Sox | Home | 2.1 | 4 | 54 | 1.55 |
| 2026-05-14 | Houston Astros | Away | 5.2 | 6 | 108 | 1.57 |