MLB pitcher strikeout

Max Fried

vs Tampa Bay Rays2026-10-07DraftKingsLHP

Projection

4.9

Ensemble: 4.5

Market line

4.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+0.4

Over 4.5

50% (5/10)· 1U streak

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Recommendation

Over 4.5

DraftKings

Confidence

B+

78/100

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Pitcher K%

24.8%

Whiff%

24.9%

CSW%

29%

WHIP

0.99

Avg IP

5.4

Avg pitches

Last 5 avg Ks

5.0

Games logged

Matchup K%

20%

Platoon K%

26.2%

Team chase

31.7%

Recent chase

27.1%

Recent contact

81.9%

Recent K% (7d)

N/A

Opp K% vs RHP

21%

Opp K% vs LHP

17.4%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

4.5

DraftKings

Model projection

4.9

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Ks

5.4

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.9

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

50% (5/10)· 1U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

4.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 4.5Model 4.9

Sep 22

vs TB

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Sep 15

@ MIN

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Sep 10

vs COL

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Sep 4

@ SD

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 29

vs BOS

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

14.5

FanDuel

Model projection

16.4

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

70%

7 of 10 overs

Average Outs

15.3

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.8

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

70% (7/10)· 2O streakLM ↓ -1

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

14.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 14.5Model 16.4

Sep 22

vs TB

OVER

Outs

+5.5

Sep 15

@ MIN

OVER

Outs

+6.5

Sep 10

vs COL

UNDER

Outs

-4.5

Sep 4

@ SD

OVER

Outs

+2.5

Aug 29

vs BOS

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Tampa Bay Rays

No prior starts found against Tampa Bay Rays.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	4.5	-119	-107	+0.4	-0.4	Best Over
FanDuel	4.5	-111	-115	+0.4	-0.4	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

76.9%

5+ Ks

58.1%Line

6+ Ks

37.9%

7+ Ks

21.9%

8+ Ks

10.9%

9+ Ks

3.8%

10+ Ks

1.5%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Cutter	22.6%	24.1%	35.3%	91.7
Sinker	19.5%	17.9%	8.3%	93.1
4-Seam Fastball	18.4%	10.4%	17.6%	94.9
Sweeper	15.3%	35.7%	26.7%	79.8
Curveball	13%	33.3%	20%	73.4
Changeup	10.3%	28.6%	16.7%	85.7

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

47.4%

2-Strike Foul%

27.4%

2-Strike Contact%

76.2%

Expected Ks

28.7

K Luck

-1.7

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	25	36%	64%
1-2	30	46.7%	53.3%
2-2	23	52.2%	47.8%
3-2 (full)	20	55%	45%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Cutter	Sinker	4-Seam Fastball	Sweeper	Curveball	Changeup
Yandy DíazR	11.9%	15.3%	16.1% vs L: 15%	11.9% vs L: 20%	16.8% vs L: 8%	3.7% vs L: 12.5%	12.2% vs L: 4.8%	10.1% vs L: 10.4%
Jonathan ArandaL	27.4%	23.2%	26% vs L: 21.4%	23.6% vs L: 25%	17.1% vs L: 20.8%	17% vs L: 19.2%	29.8% vs L: 20%	11.4% vs L: 23.1%
Junior CamineroR	13.8%	20%	17.9% vs L: 33.3%	16% vs L: 10%	16.8% vs L: 15.5%	22.8% vs L: 12.5%	26.9% vs L: 19%	14.5% vs L: 13%
Victor Mesa Jr.L	13.6%	22.4%	21.4%	26.3% vs L: 12.5%	17.7% vs L: 17.4%	12.5% vs L: 0%	14.3%	20.8%
Ryan ViladeR	23.8%	20.9%	23.5% vs L: 33.3%	14.6% vs L: 10%	18.4% vs L: 21.4%	16.7% vs L: 11.1%	24.1% vs L: 25%	12% vs L: 12.5%
Liam HicksL	14.3%	8.7%	2.9% vs L: 0%	9.7% vs L: 14.8%	7.6% vs L: 17.6%	7% vs L: 11.5%	14.8% vs L: 0%	12.7%
Jonny DeLucaR	23.2%	19.4%	12.5% vs L: 0%	23.1% vs L: 23.5%	18.3% vs L: 23.1%	41.5% vs L: 42.9%	15% vs L: 11.1%	13.5% vs L: 14%
Richie PalaciosL	18.8%	16.7%	11.5% vs L: 50%	19.6% vs L: 28.6%	17.6% vs L: 25%	9.1% vs L: 0%	10%	11.3%
Taylor WallsS	21.3%	25.8%	18.5% vs L: 20%	7.7% vs L: 14.3%	22.9% vs L: 24.1%	17.9% vs L: 0%	19.6% vs L: 16.7%	26.9% vs L: 25.7%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Cutter	Sinker	4-Seam Fastball	Sweeper	Curveball	Changeup
Yandy DíazR	10.7% vs L: 9.1%	5.3% vs L: 4.5%	16.6% vs L: 12.1%	7.7% vs L: 9.1%	14% vs L: 8.3%	14.3% vs L: 14.3%
Jonathan ArandaL	21.7% vs L: 25.8%	7.9% vs L: 12.2%	22.1% vs L: 23.1%	20.8% vs L: 23.1%	23.6% vs L: 12.5%	14.9% vs L: 33.3%
Junior CamineroR	12.1% vs L: 7.1%	10.1% vs L: 10%	20.4% vs L: 20%	31.1% vs L: 18.2%	27.3% vs L: 16.7%	27.3% vs L: 26.7%
Victor Mesa Jr.L	17.1%	8.3% vs L: 3%	24.5% vs L: 19%	8.3% vs L: 0%	30.3%	21.7%
Ryan ViladeR	16.2% vs L: 19.2%	8.8% vs L: 11.4%	19.7% vs L: 19.9%	30% vs L: 11.1%	30.8% vs L: 27.8%	17.1% vs L: 17.5%
Liam HicksL	8.2% vs L: 23.1%	2.3% vs L: 3.6%	4.7% vs L: 8.3%	10.9% vs L: 16.7%	14% vs L: 0%	16.7%
Jonny DeLucaR	19.2% vs L: 14.3%	10.3% vs L: 14.6%	18.9% vs L: 22.7%	32.7% vs L: 25%	20% vs L: 13.3%	25.8% vs L: 26%
Richie PalaciosL	11.1% vs L: 37.5%	5% vs L: 0%	11.8% vs L: 21.2%	22.5% vs L: 0%	21.8%	32.9%
Taylor WallsS	13.7% vs L: 7.7%	10.7% vs L: 12.2%	17.6% vs L: 14.7%	19% vs L: 0%	25.7% vs L: 0%	31.2% vs L: 34.8%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Yandy Díaz	22	3	13.6%	.200
Junior Caminero	15	1	6.7%	.133
Jonathan Aranda	13	5	38.5%	.091
Taylor Walls	11	1	9.1%	.400
Jonny DeLuca	9	4	44.4%	.222
Ryan Vilade	7	0	0%	.167
Liam Hicks	3	0	0%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Yandy Díaz	32.1%	15%	N/A	95.7%
Jonathan Aranda	30.6%	25%	N/A	78.3%
Junior Caminero	32.4%	21.7%	20%	66.7%
Victor Mesa Jr.	37.8%	38.5%	N/A	81.2%
Ryan Vilade	26.4%	23.8%	N/A	68.4%
Liam Hicks	26.6%	27.6%	13.3%	90%
Jonny DeLuca	37.7%	28.9%	16.7%	81%
Richie Palacios	33.2%	34.8%	N/A	94.1%
Taylor Walls	28.2%	28.6%	N/A	N/A

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-22	Pittsburgh Pirates	6	7
2026-07-27	Chicago White Sox	4.8	4
2026-08-01	Chicago Cubs	4.4	7
2026-08-07	Atlanta Braves	5.6	7
2026-08-13	Seattle Mariners	7	4
2026-08-29	Boston Red Sox	6	4
2026-09-04	San Diego Padres	5.02	4
2026-09-10	Colorado Rockies	5.12	7
2026-09-15	Minnesota Twins	4.73	6
2026-09-22	Tampa Bay Rays	4.72	4
2026-09-30	Boston Red Sox	5.19	6
2026-10-07	Tampa Bay Rays	4.86	7

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 24.8%

!Whiff rate is 24.9%

!CSW rate is 29%

!Opponent K% is 18.7%

!Average pitch count is 82

✓WHIP is 0.99

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-22	Tampa Bay Rays	Home	6.2	4	97	0.99	13	30.8%
2026-09-15	Minnesota Twins	Away	7	6	88	0.98	11	54.5%
2026-09-10	Colorado Rockies	Home	3.1	7	80	0.99	10	70%
2026-09-04	San Diego Padres	Away	5.2	4	72	0.99	10	40%
2026-08-29	Boston Red Sox	Home	3.2	4	63	1	10	40%
2026-08-13	Seattle Mariners	Home	5	4	88	1	13	30.8%
2026-08-07	Atlanta Braves	Home	6.1	7	90	0.97	11	63.6%
2026-08-01	Chicago Cubs	Away	5.1	7	78	0.99	11	63.6%
2026-07-27	Chicago White Sox	Away	3	4	66	1.02	8	50%
2026-07-22	Pittsburgh Pirates	Home	5	7	57	0.96	9	77.8%