MLB pitcher strikeout
Kyle Freeland
Projection
4.5
Model strikeouts
Market line
3.5
BetMGM
Model edge
+1.0
Over 3.5
Recommendation
Over 3.5
BetMGM
Confidence
B+
70/100
Pitcher K%
21%
Whiff%
24.8%
CSW%
30.2%
WHIP
1.62
Avg IP
5.8
Avg pitches
85.8
Last 5 avg Ks
5.2
Games logged
19
Matchup K%
N/A
Platoon K%
19.6%
Team chase
29.7%
Recent chase
25.7%
Recent contact
75.4%
Prop performance terminal
STRIKEOUT RESULTS
Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.
Market line
3.5
BetMGM
Model projection
4.5
Expected strikeouts
Hit rate
80%
8 of 10 overs
Average Ks
4.8
Selected starts
Average margin
+1.3
Vs selected line
Current streak
2
OVER
Interactive line simulator
Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.
Active line
3.5
Over
8
Under
2
Push
0
Jul 20
Washington Nationals
Strikeouts
4
+0.5
Jul 11
San Francisco Giants
Strikeouts
9
+5.5
Jul 6
Los Angeles Dodgers
Strikeouts
2
-1.5
Jul 1
Miami Marlins
Strikeouts
7
+3.5
Jun 24
Boston Red Sox
Strikeouts
4
+0.5
Analytics
Sportsbook Lines
| Book | Line | Over odds | Under odds | Over edge | Under edge | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetMGM | 3.5 | -150 | +110 | +1.0 | -1.0 | Best Over |
| DraftKings | 3.5 | -160 | +120 | +1.0 | -1.0 | — |
| Caesars | 4.5 | +106 | -- | +0.0 | +0.0 | — |
| ESPN BET | 3.5 | -160 | +115 | +1.0 | -1.0 | — |
| Bovada | 4.5 | +105 | -135 | +0.0 | +0.0 | — |
| FanDuel | 4.5 | +142 | -136 | +0.0 | +0.0 | — |
Analytics
Batter vs. Pitcher History
| Batter | PA | K | K% |
|---|---|---|---|
| Luis García Jr. | 11 | 2 | 18.2% |
| CJ Abrams | 8 | 5 | 62.5% |
| James Wood | 5 | 0 | 0% |
| Curtis Mead | 4 | 2 | 50% |
| Dylan Crews | 4 | 0 | 0% |
| Jacob Young | 4 | 0 | 0% |
| Nasim Nuñez | 4 | 0 | 0% |
| Harry Ford | 3 | 2 | 66.7% |
Analytics
Lineup Chase Rate
| Batter | Chase rate | Recent chase | Recent K% | Recent contact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Wood | 22.3% | 23.2% | 33.3% | 65.1% |
| Curtis Mead | 25% | 24% | 18.2% | 83.9% |
| Andrés Chaparro | 29.3% | 32.4% | 6.2% | 82.8% |
| CJ Abrams | 36.5% | 31% | 25% | 80.6% |
| Dylan Crews | 33.2% | 25.7% | 25% | 64.4% |
| Jacob Young | 26.5% | 21.1% | 0% | 63% |
| Harry Ford | N/A | 20% | N/A | 70.8% |
| Luis García Jr. | 40.5% | 31.8% | 23.1% | 81.6% |
| Nasim Nuñez | 24.1% | 22.4% | 8.7% | 86% |
Analytics
Projection History
| Date | Opponent | Projected | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | San Francisco Giants | 3.6 | 9 |
| 2026-07-20 | Washington Nationals | 4.5 | 4 |
Analytics
Why This Projection?
Analytics
Last 10 Starts
| Date | Opponent | H/A | IP | Ks | Pitches | WHIP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Washington Nationals | Home | 6 | 4 | 91 | 1.56 |
| 2026-07-11 | San Francisco Giants | Away | 6 | 9 | 92 | 1.57 |
| 2026-07-06 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Away | 5 | 2 | 72 | 1.61 |
| 2026-07-01 | Miami Marlins | Home | 5 | 7 | 85 | 1.6 |
| 2026-06-24 | Boston Red Sox | Home | 6 | 4 | 81 | 1.61 |
| 2026-06-19 | Pittsburgh Pirates | Home | 7.1 | 8 | 81 | 1.58 |
| 2026-06-13 | Athletics | Away | 5.2 | 4 | 95 | 1.7 |
| 2026-06-07 | Milwaukee Brewers | Home | 5 | 2 | 89 | 1.7 |
| 2026-06-01 | Los Angeles Angels | Away | 5.2 | 4 | 91 | 1.71 |
| 2026-05-26 | Los Angeles Dodgers | Away | 4 | 4 | 81 | 1.75 |