MLB pitcher strikeout

Nick Martinez

@ New York Yankees2026-10-07FanDuelRHP

Projection

2.7

Model strikeouts

Market line

3.5

FanDuel

Model edge

+0.8

Under 3.5

40% (4/10)· 4U streak

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Recommendation

Under 3.5

FanDuel

Confidence

B+

78/100

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Pitcher K%

17.3%

Whiff%

19.5%

CSW%

27%

WHIP

1.09

Avg IP

5.2

Avg pitches

77.9

Last 5 avg Ks

3.4

Games logged

Matchup K%

14%

Platoon K%

15.3%

Team chase

30%

Recent chase

N/A

Recent contact

67.7%

Recent K% (7d)

N/A

Opp K% vs RHP

24.3%

Opp K% vs LHP

24.6%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

3.5

FanDuel

Model projection

2.7

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Ks

3.5

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.0

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

40% (4/10)· 4U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

3.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 3.5Model 2.7

Oct 23

@ MIL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Oct 17

@ CLE

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Oct 7

@ NYY

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Sep 27

@ PHI

UNDER

Strikeouts

-2.5

Sep 22

@ NYY

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

12.5

FanDuel

Model projection

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

70%

7 of 10 overs

Average Outs

14.8

Selected starts

Average margin

+2.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

70% (7/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

12.5

0.527

Over

Under

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Line 12.5

Oct 23

@ MIL

UNDER

Outs

-6.5

Oct 17

@ CLE

OVER

Outs

+3.5

Oct 7

@ NYY

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Sep 27

@ PHI

UNDER

Outs

-4.5

Sep 22

@ NYY

OVER

Outs

+5.5

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Analytics

Career vs. New York Yankees

No prior starts found against New York Yankees.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	2.5	-161	+126	+0.2	-0.2	—
FanDuel	3.5	+142	-184	-0.8	+0.8	Best Under

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

No ladder projection available for this start yet.

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Sinker	32.6%	10.3%	19.6%	92.2
Cutter	24.3%	9.9%	12.1%	89
Changeup	23.3%	24.4%	10.1%	78
4-Seam Fastball	14.1%	15.7%	13.6%	92.5
Slider	5.2%	33.3%	0%	84.4

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

34%

2-Strike Foul%

24.6%

2-Strike Contact%

87.5%

Expected Ks

17.3

K Luck

+0.7

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	27	29.6%	70.4%
1-2	33	30.3%	69.7%
2-2	21	33.3%	66.7%
3-2 (full)	11	45.5%	54.5%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Sinker	Cutter	Changeup	4-Seam Fastball	Slider
Trent GrishamL	20.4%	17.5%	18.7% vs R: 13.7%	15.8% vs R: 15.6%	14.9% vs R: 12.1%	10.8% vs R: 9.5%	16.2% vs R: 16.2%
Ben RiceL	27.1%	22.8%	25.3% vs R: 20.9%	16.3% vs R: 16.7%	20% vs R: 15.6%	19.2% vs R: 18.4%	23% vs R: 20.7%
Luis García Jr.L	19.5%	17.5%	19.1% vs R: 12.5%	3.3% vs R: 0%	20.8% vs R: 20.8%	14.7% vs R: 12.9%	19.4% vs R: 24.7%
Cody BellingerL	14.5%	16.5%	14.3% vs R: 13.2%	10.3% vs R: 12.5%	12.5% vs R: 12.5%	16.6% vs R: 17.8%	7.6% vs R: 3.8%
George Lombard Jr.R	26.7%	26.5%	26.3% vs R: 25.8%	11.1% vs R: 18.2%	12.5% vs R: 15.4%	22.2% vs R: 23.3%	27.6% vs R: 27.3%
Austin WellsL	29.3%	25.4%	33.3% vs R: 40.9%	6.7% vs R: 8.7%	17.1% vs R: 16.1%	18.1% vs R: 19.2%	29.7% vs R: 28%
Anthony VolpeR	18%	26%	13.3% vs R: 11.5%	30% vs R: 28.6%	12.9% vs R: 5.9%	16% vs R: 18.9%	20.8% vs R: 22%
Spencer JonesL	30.5%	37.7%	22.5% vs R: 19.4%	18.8% vs R: 23.1%	27.3% vs R: 27.7%	22.3% vs R: 21.6%	26.8% vs R: 23.8%
José CaballeroR	32.7%	20.4%	8.9% vs R: 7.7%	7.7% vs R: 5.3%	12% vs R: 15%	24.9% vs R: 22.1%	24% vs R: 20%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Sinker	Cutter	Changeup	4-Seam Fastball	Slider
Trent GrishamL	6.6% vs R: 5.6%	13.9% vs R: 14.8%	25.9% vs R: 24.1%	12% vs R: 12.1%	32.8% vs R: 32.4%
Ben RiceL	13.7% vs R: 8.7%	15.9% vs R: 14.8%	26.3% vs R: 24.8%	18.2% vs R: 16%	34.8% vs R: 33.3%
Luis García Jr.L	7.3% vs R: 5.3%	10.7% vs R: 8.7%	23.6% vs R: 23.8%	13.3% vs R: 13.5%	26.6% vs R: 28.3%
Cody BellingerL	8.6% vs R: 10.5%	14.3% vs R: 14.1%	18% vs R: 17.8%	14.5% vs R: 18.4%	22.6% vs R: 21.4%
George Lombard Jr.R	15.3% vs R: 16.1%	23.3% vs R: 22.2%	26.1% vs R: 28.6%	35.5% vs R: 35.4%	17.9% vs R: 17.9%
Austin WellsL	14% vs R: 16.1%	16.9% vs R: 17.3%	36.5% vs R: 37.6%	16.4% vs R: 15.1%	37.7% vs R: 37.3%
Anthony VolpeR	14.3% vs R: 15.2%	11.5% vs R: 7.1%	30% vs R: 16.7%	25.9% vs R: 27.4%	27.3% vs R: 31.7%
Spencer JonesL	23.7% vs R: 28.9%	32% vs R: 30%	52.5% vs R: 53.2%	31.7% vs R: 32.9%	43.5% vs R: 48%
José CaballeroR	10.8% vs R: 7.7%	16.7% vs R: 17%	24% vs R: 20.7%	26% vs R: 24.7%	36.7% vs R: 34.5%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Cody Bellinger	17	2	11.8%	.294
Ben Rice	11	1	9.1%	.444
Luis García Jr.	11	3	27.3%	.200
José Caballero	10	2	20%	.333
Trent Grisham	8	0	0%	.667
Austin Wells	5	1	20%	.400
Anthony Volpe	5	2	40%	.000
George Lombard Jr.	3	1	33.3%	.333
Spencer Jones	3	0	0%	.333

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Trent Grisham	22.9%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Ben Rice	24.3%	22.6%	N/A	61.1%
Luis García Jr.	35.3%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Cody Bellinger	33.1%	N/A	N/A	N/A
George Lombard Jr.	27.2%	N/A	N/A	76.5%
Austin Wells	25.4%	N/A	N/A	N/A
Anthony Volpe	28.9%	29.2%	N/A	63.2%
Spencer Jones	35.5%	N/A	N/A	68.4%
José Caballero	37.7%	N/A	N/A	69.2%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-10	Seattle Mariners	2.2	1
2026-07-20	Toronto Blue Jays	0.5	0
2026-07-25	Cleveland Guardians	1.5	5
2026-07-31	Chicago White Sox	2.1	2
2026-08-05	Colorado Rockies	2.4	4
2026-08-11	Athletics	2.4	5
2026-08-18	Toronto Blue Jays	2.4	5
2026-08-23	Baltimore Orioles	2.6	4
2026-08-29	San Diego Padres	2.4	4
2026-09-04	Texas Rangers	3.1	4
2026-09-10	Atlanta Braves	4.2	3
2026-09-16	Athletics	3.7	3
2026-09-22	New York Yankees	3.5	7
2026-09-27	Philadelphia Phillies	3.6	1
2026-10-07	New York Yankees	2.7	3
2026-10-16	Cleveland Guardians	2.4	—
2026-10-17	Cleveland Guardians	2.4	3
2026-10-23	Milwaukee Brewers	2.3	5

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 17.3%

!Whiff rate is 19.5%

!CSW rate is 27%

!Opponent K% is 22.5%

!Average pitch count is 77.9

✓WHIP is 1.09

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-10-23	Milwaukee Brewers	Away	2	3	35	1.27	—	—
2026-10-17	Cleveland Guardians	Away	5.1	3	79	1.11	12	25%
2026-10-07	New York Yankees	Away	3.2	3	63	1.64	10	30%
2026-09-27	Philadelphia Phillies	Away	2.2	1	50	1.09	7	14.3%
2026-09-22	New York Yankees	Away	6	7	94	1.07	12	58.3%
2026-09-16	Athletics	Home	5	3	72	1.07	8	37.5%
2026-09-10	Atlanta Braves	Away	6.1	3	68	1.07	12	25%
2026-09-04	Texas Rangers	Away	6.1	4	90	1.1	14	28.6%
2026-08-29	San Diego Padres	Home	6	4	81	1.1	9	44.4%
2026-08-23	Baltimore Orioles	Away	6	4	86	1.1	14	28.6%