MLB pitcher strikeout

Tyler Glasnow

@ Atlanta Braves2026-10-07DraftKingsRHP

Projection

5.3

Ensemble: 5.6

Market line

6.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+1.2

Under 6.5

60% (6/10)· 2U streak

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Recommendation

Under 6.5

DraftKings

Confidence

A+

100/100

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Pitcher K%

35.3%

Whiff%

35.4%

CSW%

35.9%

WHIP

0.89

Avg IP

5.1

Avg pitches

82.6

Last 5 avg Ks

7.8

Games logged

Matchup K%

35.5%

Platoon K%

35.1%

Team chase

34.3%

Recent chase

33.4%

Recent contact

79.9%

Recent K% (7d)

N/A

Opp K% vs RHP

22.6%

Opp K% vs LHP

21.7%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

6.5

DraftKings

Model projection

5.3

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Ks

7.1

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.6

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

60% (6/10)· 2U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

6.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 6.5Model 5.3

Oct 15

vs MIL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Oct 7

@ ATL

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Sep 24

vs SD

OVER

Strikeouts

+4.5

Sep 18

vs SF

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Sep 12

@ MIA

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

15.5

DraftKings

Model projection

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Outs

15.0

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.5

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

50% (5/10)· 2U streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

15.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 15.5Model 15

Oct 15

vs MIL

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Oct 7

@ ATL

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Sep 24

vs SD

OVER

Outs

+3.5

Sep 18

vs SF

OVER

Outs

+2.5

Sep 12

@ MIA

UNDER

Outs

-3.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Atlanta Braves

No prior starts found against Atlanta Braves.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	6.5	-104	-122	-1.2	+1.2	Best Under
FanDuel	6.5	+100	-128	-1.2	+1.2	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

81%

5+ Ks

63.2%

6+ Ks

43.4%

7+ Ks

26.1%Line

8+ Ks

13.2%

9+ Ks

5.6%

10+ Ks

2.1%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	40.9%	21.1%	30.8%	95.6
Knuckle Curve	21.5%	55.8%	37.3%	81.2
Slider	19.5%	38%	38.9%	90.3
Sinker	16.9%	23.5%	11.1%	95.8

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

59.2%

2-Strike Foul%

16.2%

2-Strike Contact%

54.7%

Expected Ks

40.9

K Luck

+1.1

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	26	80.8%	19.2%
1-2	28	75%	25%
2-2	33	51.5%	48.5%
3-2 (full)	22	36.4%	63.6%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Knuckle Curve	Slider	Sinker
Michael Harris IIL	18.1%	19.5%	13.9% vs R: 13.6%	33.3% vs R: 33.3%	19.1% vs R: 20.4%	14.5% vs R: 15.2%
Ronald Acuña Jr.R	24.1%	20.9%	19.3% vs R: 22.4%	25% vs R: 25%	12.7% vs R: 18.5%	12.5% vs R: 9.5%
Matt OlsonL	25.4%	23.9%	21.1% vs R: 17.4%	23.5% vs R: 26.7%	26.1% vs R: 31.4%	18.8% vs R: 27.5%
Ozzie AlbiesS	9.6%	18.9%	14.9% vs R: 14.7%	10.5% vs R: 11.8%	14.5% vs R: 16.1%	17.2% vs R: 13.3%
Drake BaldwinL	21.9%	21.2%	13.2% vs R: 12.7%	33.3% vs R: 31.8%	26.1% vs R: 24.3%	10.4% vs R: 8.6%
Mike YastrzemskiL	35%	22.8%	16.4% vs R: 15.8%	11.1% vs R: 6.2%	24.6% vs R: 26.3%	14.7% vs R: 10%
Mauricio DubónR	9.5%	13%	11.9% vs R: 12.3%	17.6% vs R: 12.5%	15.1% vs R: 13.9%	15.7% vs R: 18.1%
Austin RileyR	32.6%	31.6%	26.5% vs R: 25.4%	33.3% vs R: 33.3%	24.4% vs R: 28.4%	23.4% vs R: 26.6%
Sean MurphyR	35.3%	28.7%	28.2% vs R: 30.8%	—	26.1% vs R: 37.5%	15% vs R: 12.5%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Knuckle Curve	Slider	Sinker
Michael Harris IIL	17.2% vs R: 16.8%	45.8% vs R: 45.8%	25.8% vs R: 24.7%	11.3% vs R: 11.2%
Ronald Acuña Jr.R	26.5% vs R: 26.7%	25% vs R: 25%	26.7% vs R: 32.2%	14.5% vs R: 13.8%
Matt OlsonL	20.2% vs R: 19.3%	29.6% vs R: 30.4%	35% vs R: 30.6%	13.4% vs R: 13.2%
Ozzie AlbiesS	18.6% vs R: 19.7%	15.2% vs R: 19.2%	22.5% vs R: 25.3%	14.4% vs R: 16.2%
Drake BaldwinL	18.4% vs R: 19.1%	52% vs R: 47.6%	35.7% vs R: 35.7%	9.7% vs R: 9.1%
Mike YastrzemskiL	20.8% vs R: 21%	20% vs R: 11.8%	31.1% vs R: 33.9%	10.7% vs R: 10.7%
Mauricio DubónR	12% vs R: 11.3%	21.4% vs R: 18.2%	26.2% vs R: 28.2%	10% vs R: 12%
Austin RileyR	27.8% vs R: 27.6%	52.2% vs R: 50%	35.2% vs R: 36.3%	13% vs R: 11.5%
Sean MurphyR	15.1% vs R: 11.5%	—	51.9% vs R: 57.1%	17.8% vs R: 17.1%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Matt Olson	17	3	17.6%	.154
Ozzie Albies	12	3	25%	.100
Austin Riley	12	8	66.7%	.083
Ronald Acuña Jr.	11	3	27.3%	.273
Michael Harris II	10	5	50%	.200
Mike Yastrzemski	6	3	50%	.200
Drake Baldwin	5	1	20%	.200
Sean Murphy	4	2	50%	.250
Mauricio Dubón	2	0	0%	.500

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Michael Harris II	45.2%	N/A	N/A	76%
Ronald Acuña Jr.	32.6%	40.9%	N/A	88%
Matt Olson	29.3%	35.7%	13.3%	87%
Ozzie Albies	39.9%	31%	N/A	62.1%
Drake Baldwin	33.8%	43.5%	N/A	87.1%
Mike Yastrzemski	25.9%	24.3%	25%	75%
Mauricio Dubón	38.3%	N/A	N/A	89.5%
Austin Riley	31.9%	25%	37.5%	69.7%
Sean Murphy	32.2%	N/A	N/A	85%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-08-25	Atlanta Braves	7.4	7
2026-08-30	Detroit Tigers	8.1	6
2026-09-05	Washington Nationals	6.59	8
2026-09-12	Miami Marlins	6.43	7
2026-09-18	San Francisco Giants	6.59	10
2026-09-24	San Diego Padres	6.13	11
2026-10-07	Atlanta Braves	5.33	5
2026-10-15	Milwaukee Brewers	6.63	6

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

✓Pitcher K% is 35.3%

✓Whiff rate is 35.4%

✓CSW rate is 35.9%

!Opponent K% is 21.4%

!Average pitch count is 82.6

✓WHIP is 0.89

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-10-15	Milwaukee Brewers	Home	4.1	6	76	1.11	—	—
2026-10-07	Atlanta Braves	Away	4.2	5	78	1.29	12	41.7%
2026-09-24	San Diego Padres	Home	6.1	11	91	0.95	15	73.3%
2026-09-18	San Francisco Giants	Home	6	10	98	0.96	17	58.8%
2026-09-12	Miami Marlins	Away	4	7	91	0.97	13	53.8%
2026-09-05	Washington Nationals	Home	6	8	96	0.88	13	61.5%
2026-08-30	Detroit Tigers	Away	7	6	85	0.81	13	46.2%
2026-08-25	Atlanta Braves	Away	5	7	89	0.87	14	50%
2026-05-06	Houston Astros	Away	1	2	19	0.83	—	—
2026-04-29	Miami Marlins	Home	5.2	9	92	0.83	—	—