MLB pitcher strikeout

Aaron Nola

vs Atlanta Braves2026-09-06DraftKingsRHP

Projection

6.3

Ensemble: 6.3

Market line

5.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+0.8

Over 5.5

60% (6/10)· 1U streak

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Recommendation

Over 5.5

DraftKings

Confidence

A+

100/100

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Pitcher K%

31%

Whiff%

31.9%

CSW%

31.8%

WHIP

1.43

Avg IP

5.6

Avg pitches

95.6

Last 5 avg Ks

7.2

Games logged

Matchup K%

22.3%

Platoon K%

25.7%

Team chase

33.2%

Recent chase

35.3%

Recent contact

77.1%

Recent K% (7d)

27.2%

Opp K% vs RHP

24.2%

Opp K% vs LHP

20.4%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

5.5

DraftKings

Model projection

6.3

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Ks

6.3

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.8

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

60% (6/10)· 1U streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

5.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 5.5Model 6.3

Aug 31

@ ARI

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 25

@ SEA

OVER

Strikeouts

+1.5

Aug 19

vs MIA

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Aug 13

@ MIN

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Aug 8

vs TOR

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

17.5

FanDuel

Model projection

17.1

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Outs

16.8

Selected starts

Average margin

-0.7

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

40% (4/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

17.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 17.5Model 17.1

Aug 31

@ ARI

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 25

@ SEA

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 19

vs MIA

OVER

Outs

+3.5

Aug 13

@ MIN

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 8

vs TOR

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Atlanta Braves

No prior starts found against Atlanta Braves.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	5.5	-117	-109	+0.8	-0.8	Best Over
FanDuel	5.5	-132	+104	+0.8	-0.8	—
Pinnacle	5.5	-132	+104	+0.8	-0.8	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

90.1%

5+ Ks

77.8%

6+ Ks

61%Line

7+ Ks

41.6%

8+ Ks

25.3%

9+ Ks

13.6%

10+ Ks

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
Knuckle Curve	32.1%	45.2%	32.4%	78.4
4-Seam Fastball	22.9%	8.7%	6.8%	92.4
Changeup	19.9%	28%	19.7%	85.6
Sinker	17.5%	9%	17.5%	91.8
Cutter	6.1%	22.2%	0%	86.4
Slider	1.5%	26.7%	0%	83.2

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

50%

2-Strike Foul%

17.6%

2-Strike Contact%

65.1%

Expected Ks

32.7

K Luck

+3.3

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	21	47.6%	52.4%
1-2	44	56.8%	43.2%
2-2	33	54.5%	45.5%
3-2 (full)	19	15.8%	84.2%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	Knuckle Curve	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Sinker	Cutter	Slider
Drake BaldwinL	20%	22.3%	36.8% vs R: 35.3%	14.4% vs R: 13.6%	28.3% vs R: 22%	9.1% vs R: 11.1%	20% vs R: 21.7%	24.5% vs R: 22%
Ronald Acuña Jr.R	24%	22.7%	—	20.5% vs R: 24.1%	20.8% vs R: 25%	11.4% vs R: 9.1%	18.2% vs R: 13%	15.2% vs R: 23.8%
Matt OlsonL	25.4%	25.8%	18.8% vs R: 21.4%	21.8% vs R: 18.1%	13.2% vs R: 13.5%	15.1% vs R: 22.2%	10.9% vs R: 12.1%	27% vs R: 32.7%
Mauricio DubónR	10.1%	13%	25% vs R: 18.2%	12.9% vs R: 13.9%	5.3% vs R: 0%	14.3% vs R: 17%	2.8% vs R: 4.2%	15.4% vs R: 13.6%
Michael Harris IIL	18.3%	20.5%	45.5% vs R: 45.5%	14.3% vs R: 14.2%	12% vs R: 13%	14.3% vs R: 12.9%	13.6% vs R: 11.1%	20.9% vs R: 21.3%
Ozzie AlbiesS	8.9%	18%	7.1% vs R: 8.3%	14.4% vs R: 14.9%	9.7% vs R: 9.6%	14.5% vs R: 8.1%	16.2% vs R: 14.3%	15.7% vs R: 17.3%
Mike YastrzemskiL	36.1%	23.2%	22.2% vs R: 14.3%	17.6% vs R: 16.7%	12.5% vs R: 9.6%	18.2% vs R: 12.8%	34.6% vs R: 34.6%	23.2% vs R: 25%
Austin RileyR	32.1%	31.1%	46.2% vs R: 50%	26.8% vs R: 26.8%	28.1% vs R: 25.9%	24.2% vs R: 26.8%	29.2% vs R: 27.3%	24.3% vs R: 28.1%
Ha-Seong KimR	26.5%	23.2%	—	23.1% vs R: 19.2%	15.4%	0% vs R: 0%	33.3% vs R: 50%	8.3% vs R: 10%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	Knuckle Curve	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Sinker	Cutter	Slider
Drake BaldwinL	52.6% vs R: 46.7%	17.5% vs R: 17.9%	28% vs R: 25.7%	11% vs R: 10.5%	23.8% vs R: 27%	37.5% vs R: 39%
Ronald Acuña Jr.R	—	28.1% vs R: 29.1%	30.8% vs R: 42.9%	14.9% vs R: 14.2%	31.4% vs R: 34.9%	26.9% vs R: 33.3%
Matt OlsonL	28% vs R: 28.6%	21.3% vs R: 20.4%	20% vs R: 19.3%	10.2% vs R: 7.8%	19.2% vs R: 19.5%	35.6% vs R: 30.4%
Mauricio DubónR	37.5% vs R: 40%	11.8% vs R: 11.9%	9.9% vs R: 4.9%	10.1% vs R: 12.3%	10.6% vs R: 12.7%	25.4% vs R: 26.6%
Michael Harris IIL	55% vs R: 55%	18% vs R: 17.3%	28.5% vs R: 30.1%	10.4% vs R: 10.1%	15.9% vs R: 13.6%	26.5% vs R: 26.2%
Ozzie AlbiesS	10.7% vs R: 14.3%	17.9% vs R: 19.3%	18.4% vs R: 16.9%	14.5% vs R: 15.6%	22% vs R: 22.8%	22.2% vs R: 25.6%
Mike YastrzemskiL	30.8% vs R: 20%	19.8% vs R: 20.1%	18.2% vs R: 18.8%	11.8% vs R: 11.9%	28.3% vs R: 24%	30.6% vs R: 34.7%
Austin RileyR	55.6% vs R: 53.3%	26.5% vs R: 26.1%	37.7% vs R: 30.8%	13.4% vs R: 12.8%	35.3% vs R: 39.1%	35.1% vs R: 35.7%
Ha-Seong KimR	—	17.1% vs R: 16.7%	13.3%	6.4% vs R: 2.9%	35.3% vs R: 60%	23.8% vs R: 25%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Ozzie Albies	75	13	17.3%	.271
Austin Riley	63	20	31.7%	.367
Ronald Acuña Jr.	62	13	21%	.333
Matt Olson	42	8	19%	.257
Michael Harris II	32	8	25%	.241
Mike Yastrzemski	17	5	29.4%	.333
Mauricio Dubón	9	0	0%	.111
Drake Baldwin	6	0	0%	.600
Ha-Seong Kim	6	2	33.3%	.200

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Drake Baldwin	33.3%	36.2%	28.6%	64.5%
Ronald Acuña Jr.	33%	34.4%	20%	73.2%
Matt Olson	27.4%	33%	27.7%	70.1%
Mauricio Dubón	37.6%	39.1%	10%	85.7%
Michael Harris II	45.5%	46.4%	26.2%	77.3%
Ozzie Albies	40.4%	36.5%	17%	85%
Mike Yastrzemski	24.5%	27.4%	29.2%	78.7%
Austin Riley	32.9%	35.5%	32.4%	75%
Ha-Seong Kim	24%	29.4%	21.7%	84%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-10	Detroit Tigers	6	8
2026-07-16	New York Mets	5.9	6
2026-07-22	Los Angeles Dodgers	6	4
2026-07-28	Miami Marlins	5.2	4
2026-08-03	Washington Nationals	5.2	5
2026-08-08	Toronto Blue Jays	4.5	8
2026-08-13	Minnesota Twins	6.1	9
2026-08-19	Miami Marlins	6.6	8
2026-08-25	Seattle Mariners	7.8	7
2026-08-31	Arizona Diamondbacks	7.1	4
2026-09-06	Atlanta Braves	6.25	—

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

✓Pitcher K% is 31%

✓Whiff rate is 31.9%

✓CSW rate is 31.8%

!Opponent K% is 21.6%

✓Average pitch count is 95.6

!WHIP is 1.43

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-08-31	Arizona Diamondbacks	Away	5	4	104	1.4	14	28.6%
2026-08-25	Seattle Mariners	Away	6	7	92	1.4	14	50%
2026-08-19	Miami Marlins	Home	7	8	100	1.42	17	47.1%
2026-08-13	Minnesota Twins	Away	5	9	97	1.45	13	69.2%
2026-08-08	Toronto Blue Jays	Home	5	8	97	1.45	14	57.1%
2026-08-03	Washington Nationals	Home	6	5	97	1.44	13	38.5%
2026-07-28	Miami Marlins	Away	5.2	4	93	1.45	10	40%
2026-07-22	Los Angeles Dodgers	Home	5.1	4	85	1.45	10	40%
2026-07-16	New York Mets	Home	6	6	97	1.45	15	40%
2026-07-10	Detroit Tigers	Away	5	8	84	1.43	12	66.7%