MLB pitcher strikeout

Eduardo Rodriguez

@ Houston Astros2026-09-06PinnacleLHP

Projection

5.1

Model strikeouts

Market line

4.5

Pinnacle

Model edge

+0.6

Over 4.5

40% (4/10)· 1U streak

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Recommendation

Over 4.5

Pinnacle

Confidence

85/100

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Pitcher K%

24.2%

Whiff%

23.3%

CSW%

26.9%

WHIP

1.22

Avg IP

6.3

Avg pitches

102.8

Last 5 avg Ks

6.0

Games logged

Matchup K%

13.2%

Platoon K%

17.8%

Team chase

35.2%

Recent chase

36.1%

Recent contact

80.4%

Recent K% (7d)

20.4%

Opp K% vs RHP

20.9%

Opp K% vs LHP

21.4%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

4.5

Pinnacle

Model projection

5.1

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Ks

4.8

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

40% (4/10)· 1U streak

Strikeout Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

4.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 4.5Model 5.1

Sep 1

vs PHI

UNDER

Strikeouts

-1.5

Aug 26

vs CHC

OVER

Strikeouts

+4.5

Aug 21

vs CIN

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 15

@ ATL

OVER

Strikeouts

+0.5

Aug 9

vs LAD

OVER

Strikeouts

+4.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

17.5

FanDuel

Model projection

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Outs

17.7

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.2

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

60% (6/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

17.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 17.5

Sep 1

vs PHI

UNDER

Outs

-2.5

Aug 26

vs CHC

OVER

Outs

+3.5

Aug 21

vs CIN

UNDER

Outs

-0.5

Aug 15

@ ATL

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 9

vs LAD

OVER

Outs

+3.5

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Analytics

Career vs. Houston Astros

No prior starts found against Houston Astros.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
Pinnacle	4.5	+100	-128	+0.6	-0.6	Best Over
DraftKings	4.5	+101	-128	+0.6	-0.6	—
FanDuel	4.5	+106	-136	+0.6	-0.6	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

No ladder projection available for this start yet.

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	39.1%	17.3%	13.6%	92.1
Changeup	25.3%	30.5%	15.3%	85.1
Curveball	13%	17.3%	7%	79.8
Cutter	13%	18.4%	11.5%	88.9
Sinker	9.7%	7.4%	14.6%	91.6

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

40.5%

2-Strike Foul%

26.9%

2-Strike Contact%

79.6%

Expected Ks

25.2

K Luck

+4.8

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	34	35.3%	64.7%
1-2	48	43.8%	56.2%
2-2	38	36.8%	63.2%
3-2 (full)	24	25%	75%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Curveball	Cutter	Sinker
Jeremy PeñaR	24.4%	21.5%	16.5% vs L: 34.6%	15.8% vs L: 20%	44.4% vs L: 44.4%	4.5% vs L: 0%	7.7% vs L: 0%
Yordan AlvarezL	15.6%	17.7%	13.5% vs L: 8%	15.2% vs L: 22.2%	20% vs L: 35.7%	20.5% vs L: 25%	18.8% vs L: 17.2%
Isaac ParedesR	15%	12.2%	9.4% vs L: 6%	7.6% vs L: 5.3%	14.9% vs L: 25.9%	2.7% vs L: 0%	5.7% vs L: 11.8%
Jose AltuveR	20.4%	20.5%	24.3% vs L: 27.3%	19% vs L: 14.3%	11.5% vs L: 0%	13.8% vs L: 37.5%	25% vs L: 14.3%
Daulton VarshoL	20%	19.8%	21.1% vs L: 17.5%	13.1% vs L: 0%	19.6% vs L: 25%	11.1% vs L: 12.5%	21.8% vs L: 23.8%
Christian WalkerR	19.7%	24.5%	22.9% vs L: 23.9%	22.2% vs L: 22.2%	19.2% vs L: 25%	15.6% vs L: 25%	10.4% vs L: 0%
Yainer DiazR	23.1%	13%	23.5% vs L: 30%	24% vs L: 25%	4.5% vs L: 9.1%	20% vs L: 33.3%	41.2% vs L: 20%
Taylor TrammellL	24.2%	32.1%	27.4% vs L: 16.7%	13.3%	27.3%	0%	35.3% vs L: 28.6%
Christian VázquezR	16.9%	20.2%	19% vs L: 22.2%	9.1% vs L: 9.1%	26.7% vs L: 20%	9.5% vs L: 0%	8.7% vs L: 0%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Changeup	Curveball	Cutter	Sinker
Jeremy PeñaR	14.8% vs L: 16.9%	43.1% vs L: 50%	54.8% vs L: 66.7%	26.6% vs L: 25%	9.3% vs L: 15.4%
Yordan AlvarezL	14.2% vs L: 9.8%	15.9% vs L: 27.3%	29.7% vs L: 31.6%	14.3% vs L: 23.5%	7.5% vs L: 7.7%
Isaac ParedesR	9.7% vs L: 7%	22.7% vs L: 20%	15.6% vs L: 15.4%	13.5% vs L: 0%	6.1% vs L: 8.6%
Jose AltuveR	20.8% vs L: 15.9%	18.5% vs L: 8.8%	22% vs L: 26.9%	11.8% vs L: 20%	14.1% vs L: 10%
Daulton VarshoL	18.1% vs L: 13.7%	19.8% vs L: 0%	20.3% vs L: 20%	15.3% vs L: 15.4%	13.4% vs L: 11.3%
Christian WalkerR	26.3% vs L: 24.7%	34.6% vs L: 33.3%	36.1% vs L: 30.4%	20% vs L: 20%	9.6% vs L: 7.7%
Yainer DiazR	20.8% vs L: 22.9%	20.4% vs L: 24.3%	20% vs L: 33.3%	13.5% vs L: 27.8%	13.5% vs L: 5.9%
Taylor TrammellL	31% vs L: 15.4%	33.9%	57.1%	29%	15.4% vs L: 12.5%
Christian VázquezR	16.9% vs L: 15.1%	22.2% vs L: 26.7%	26.1% vs L: 18.2%	9.8% vs L: 0%	2.3% vs L: 0%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Jose Altuve	28	4	14.3%	.370
Yordan Alvarez	18	3	16.7%	.533
Jeremy Peña	13	1	7.7%	.385
Yainer Diaz	9	1	11.1%	.125
Christian Vázquez	5	1	20%	.000
Isaac Paredes	4	0	0%	.250
Daulton Varsho	3	0	0%	.667
Christian Walker	3	0	0%	.667
Taylor Trammell	2	1	50%	.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Jeremy Peña	40.2%	47.2%	30.8%	65.8%
Yordan Alvarez	30.9%	35.5%	23.1%	87.4%
Isaac Paredes	27.2%	23.4%	7.7%	90.8%
Jose Altuve	38.7%	44.4%	19.1%	84.3%
Daulton Varsho	37.4%	34.8%	15.6%	76.2%
Christian Walker	33%	26.4%	21.7%	79.5%
Yainer Diaz	42.5%	38.6%	12.5%	81.8%
Taylor Trammell	28.4%	31.1%	20.6%	71.9%
Christian Vázquez	38.3%	43.3%	N/A	85.7%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-10	Los Angeles Dodgers	3.4	5
2026-07-19	St. Louis Cardinals	2.7	3
2026-07-24	Washington Nationals	3	4
2026-07-29	Pittsburgh Pirates	3.1	2
2026-08-04	San Diego Padres	3.5	4
2026-08-09	Los Angeles Dodgers	3.1	9
2026-08-15	Atlanta Braves	3.9	5
2026-08-21	Cincinnati Reds	3.9	4
2026-08-26	Chicago Cubs	3.6	9
2026-09-01	Philadelphia Phillies	5.1	3
2026-09-06	Houston Astros	5.1	—

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 24.2%

!Whiff rate is 23.3%

!CSW rate is 26.9%

!Opponent K% is 19.6%

✓Average pitch count is 102.8

!WHIP is 1.22

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-01	Philadelphia Phillies	Home	5	3	103	1.22	16	18.8%
2026-08-26	Chicago Cubs	Home	7	9	104	1.19	16	56.2%
2026-08-21	Cincinnati Reds	Home	5.2	4	99	1.21	14	28.6%
2026-08-15	Atlanta Braves	Away	6	5	96	1.21	13	38.5%
2026-08-09	Los Angeles Dodgers	Home	7	9	115	1.23	15	60%
2026-08-04	San Diego Padres	Home	5.2	4	102	1.24	13	30.8%
2026-07-29	Pittsburgh Pirates	Away	8	2	105	1.21	16	12.5%
2026-07-24	Washington Nationals	Away	6	4	98	1.24	14	28.6%
2026-07-19	St. Louis Cardinals	Home	2.2	3	68	1.22	8	37.5%
2026-07-10	Los Angeles Dodgers	Away	6	5	87	1.17	10	50%