MLB pitcher strikeout

Gerrit Cole

@ San Diego Padres2026-09-06DraftKingsRHP

Projection

5.8

Ensemble: 5.8

Market line

5.5

DraftKings

Model edge

+0.3

Over 5.5

60% (6/10)· 2U streak

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Recommendation

Over 5.5

DraftKings

Confidence

88/100

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Pitcher K%

25.8%

Whiff%

24.1%

CSW%

32.5%

WHIP

1.09

Avg IP

6.1

Avg pitches

90.2

Last 5 avg Ks

6.4

Games logged

Matchup K%

34.2%

Platoon K%

25.6%

Team chase

30.4%

Recent chase

34.9%

Recent contact

77.3%

Recent K% (7d)

18.8%

Opp K% vs RHP

19.1%

Opp K% vs LHP

20.9%

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Prop performance terminal

STRIKEOUT RESULTS

Historical strikeout performance against the selected market line.

Situation:

Market line

5.5

DraftKings

Model projection

5.8

Expected strikeouts

Hit rate

60%

6 of 10 overs

Average Ks

6.9

Selected starts

Average margin

+1.4

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

60% (6/10)· 2U streak

Strikeout Simulator

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Active line

5.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 5.5Model 5.8

Sep 1

@ LAA

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 27

vs HOU

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 20

@ BAL

OVER

Strikeouts

+2.5

Aug 14

@ TOR

UNDER

Strikeouts

-0.5

Aug 8

vs ATL

OVER

Strikeouts

+3.5

Prop performance terminal

TOTAL OUTS RESULTS

Historical total outs recorded performance against the selected market line.

Select stat

Situation:

Market line

17.5

FanDuel

Model projection

16.9

Expected outs recorded

Hit rate

80%

8 of 10 overs

Average Outs

18.4

Selected starts

Average margin

+0.9

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

80% (8/10)· 1U streak

Total Outs Simulator

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Active line

17.5

0.527

Over

Under

Push

Line 17.5Model 16.9

Sep 1

@ LAA

UNDER

Outs

-1.5

Aug 27

vs HOU

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 20

@ BAL

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 14

@ TOR

OVER

Outs

+0.5

Aug 8

vs ATL

OVER

Outs

+3.5

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Analytics

Career vs. San Diego Padres

No prior starts found against San Diego Padres.

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Analytics

Sportsbook Lines

Book	Line	Over odds	Under odds	Over edge	Under edge	Signal
DraftKings	5.5	+100	-128	+0.3	-0.3	Best Over
FanDuel	5.5	+108	-138	+0.3	-0.3	—
Pinnacle	5.5	+110	-140	+0.3	-0.3	—

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Analytics

Strikeout Ladder

4+ Ks

79.9%

5+ Ks

61.8%

6+ Ks

43.1%Line

7+ Ks

25.9%

8+ Ks

12.8%

9+ Ks

5.5%

10+ Ks

1.9%

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Analytics

Pitch Arsenal

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo
4-Seam Fastball	49.7%	21.8%	24.2%	96.9
Slider	19.9%	24.6%	20.8%	89.8
Knuckle Curve	14.4%	19.5%	16.3%	83.6
Changeup	13.4%	23%	20.4%	86.2
Sinker	2.6%	6.7%	16.7%	96.2

Analytics

Two-Strike Execution

2-Strike PAs

K per 2-Strike PA

46.4%

2-Strike Foul%

20.8%

2-Strike Contact%

75%

Expected Ks

33.6

K Luck

-1.6

Count	Occurrences	K%	Ball in play / walk%
0-2	38	63.2%	36.8%
1-2	40	47.5%	52.5%
2-2	29	31%	69%
3-2 (full)	11	0%	100%

Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — K% by Pitch

Batter	K% vs L	K% vs R	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Knuckle Curve	Changeup	Sinker
Fernando Tatis Jr.R	18.9%	18.5%	19.6% vs R: 21.6%	25% vs R: 24.3%	0% vs R: 0%	16.5% vs R: 17.3%	22.6% vs R: 23.8%
Jake CronenworthL	17.9%	24.5%	11.2% vs R: 11%	22.5% vs R: 26.9%	42.9% vs R: 42.9%	23.6% vs R: 26.2%	19.6% vs R: 24.2%
Manny MachadoR	21.4%	21.7%	21.8% vs R: 23.3%	18.2% vs R: 13.2%	23.1% vs R: 23.1%	22.9% vs R: 30.6%	16.7% vs R: 11.9%
Ty FranceR	25%	19.9%	17.5% vs R: 18.8%	16.9% vs R: 19%	0% vs R: 0%	25.5% vs R: 16.7%	8.5% vs R: 11.4%
Jackson MerrillL	26.8%	23.2%	21.9% vs R: 19.8%	20.3% vs R: 20.6%	31.2% vs R: 31.2%	18.4% vs R: 17.4%	13.9% vs R: 9.3%
Xander BogaertsR	12.1%	19.9%	13.1% vs R: 16.7%	17.5% vs R: 16.4%	16.7% vs R: 18.2%	17.6% vs R: 20.6%	19.1% vs R: 21.1%
Gavin SheetsL	27.8%	18.7%	8.8% vs R: 9.6%	15.5% vs R: 12%	33.3% vs R: 33.3%	14.9% vs R: 11.5%	21.4% vs R: 19.4%
Freddy FerminR	18.6%	20.6%	14.6% vs R: 14.7%	21.7% vs R: 14.7%	12.5% vs R: 12.5%	20.7% vs R: 25%	21.2% vs R: 23.3%
Dustin HarrisL	7.7%	15%	17.6% vs R: 15.4%	25% vs R: 33.3%	—	10% vs R: 16.7%	0% vs R: 0%

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Analytics

Lineup vs. Arsenal — Whiff% by Pitch

Batter	4-Seam Fastball	Slider	Knuckle Curve	Changeup	Sinker
Fernando Tatis Jr.R	17.7% vs R: 17.8%	33.8% vs R: 34.1%	28.6% vs R: 33.3%	31.2% vs R: 35.6%	13.2% vs R: 12.4%
Jake CronenworthL	9.6% vs R: 9.6%	30.8% vs R: 37.5%	44.4% vs R: 57.1%	40.2% vs R: 42%	15.2% vs R: 16.7%
Manny MachadoR	21.1% vs R: 21.4%	31.4% vs R: 29.8%	29.4% vs R: 29.4%	29.5% vs R: 28.9%	13.5% vs R: 10.9%
Ty FranceR	24.9% vs R: 25.9%	24.8% vs R: 25%	11.1% vs R: 14.3%	30.5% vs R: 20.8%	14.5% vs R: 10.9%
Jackson MerrillL	25.4% vs R: 24.2%	29.4% vs R: 31.7%	41.4% vs R: 44.4%	24.7% vs R: 23.3%	10.1% vs R: 9.5%
Xander BogaertsR	9.9% vs R: 11.6%	35.8% vs R: 32.9%	42.1% vs R: 44.4%	33.7% vs R: 44.8%	11.8% vs R: 13.7%
Gavin SheetsL	13.7% vs R: 11.9%	26.9% vs R: 27.3%	44.4% vs R: 44.4%	23.7% vs R: 20.7%	9.3% vs R: 8.1%
Freddy FerminR	18.2% vs R: 22%	38.1% vs R: 35.4%	22.2% vs R: 22.2%	47.1% vs R: 50%	11.8% vs R: 14.3%
Dustin HarrisL	6.9% vs R: 7.1%	45.5% vs R: 37.5%	—	23.8% vs R: 29.4%	11.1% vs R: 16.7%

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Analytics

Batter vs. Pitcher History

Projected lineup

Batter	PA	K	K%	AVG
Xander Bogaerts	38	13	34.2%	.189
Ty France	6	0	0%	.000
Gavin Sheets	6	1	16.7%	.500
Fernando Tatis Jr.	3	1	33.3%	.000
Jake Cronenworth	3	2	66.7%	.333
Manny Machado	3	0	0%	1.000

Analytics

Lineup Chase Rate

Projected lineup

Batter	Chase rate	Recent chase	Recent K%	Recent contact
Fernando Tatis Jr.	24.4%	29.9%	18.8%	77.4%
Jake Cronenworth	30.9%	30.6%	26.2%	86.5%
Manny Machado	30.2%	31%	18.2%	82.5%
Ty France	31.9%	34.2%	18.8%	68.3%
Jackson Merrill	40.2%	44.3%	20.8%	76.6%
Xander Bogaerts	20%	27.8%	19%	73.8%
Gavin Sheets	30.1%	40%	N/A	86.4%
Freddy Fermin	35.7%	34.3%	27.8%	64.5%
Dustin Harris	N/A	41.9%	14.3%	79.5%

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Analytics

Projection History

Date	Opponent	Projected	Actual
2026-07-08	Tampa Bay Rays	4	6
2026-07-17	Los Angeles Dodgers	5.4	8
2026-07-22	Pittsburgh Pirates	7.4	11
2026-07-28	Chicago White Sox	6.5	7
2026-08-02	Chicago Cubs	6.2	5
2026-08-08	Atlanta Braves	6.4	9
2026-08-14	Toronto Blue Jays	8.8	5
2026-08-20	Baltimore Orioles	8.9	8
2026-09-01	Los Angeles Angels	5.85	5
2026-09-06	San Diego Padres	5.79	—

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Analytics

Why This Projection?

!Pitcher K% is 25.8%

!Whiff rate is 24.1%

✓CSW rate is 32.5%

!Opponent K% is 20.8%

✓Average pitch count is 90.2

✓WHIP is 1.09

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Analytics

Last 10 Starts

Date	Opponent	H/A	IP	Ks	Pitches	WHIP	2-Strike PAs	K/2-Strike%
2026-09-01	Los Angeles Angels	Away	5.1	5	90	1.11	14	35.7%
2026-08-27	Houston Astros	Home	6	5	79	1.07	13	38.5%
2026-08-20	Baltimore Orioles	Away	6	8	93	1.07	16	50%
2026-08-14	Toronto Blue Jays	Away	6	5	87	1.08	12	41.7%
2026-08-08	Atlanta Braves	Home	7	9	82	1.08	14	64.3%
2026-08-02	Chicago Cubs	Away	5.2	5	99	1.1	12	41.7%
2026-07-28	Chicago White Sox	Away	6	7	99	1.09	14	50%
2026-07-22	Pittsburgh Pirates	Home	7	11	93	1.1	16	68.8%
2026-07-17	Los Angeles Dodgers	Home	6	8	103	1.16	16	50%
2026-07-08	Tampa Bay Rays	Away	6.1	6	97	1.2	11	54.5%