NBA game details
DAL
MIAMonday, October 26 at 7:30 PM ET
Spread
Margin/fair line/market spread/cover probability are estimate/display only - no historical NBA odds archive to backtest a real betting edge against. Play/No Play is a real, backtested straight-up-accuracy signal, not a proven betting edge.
Totals
Model total/fair line/market total/over probability are estimate/display only - no historical NBA odds archive to backtest a real betting edge against. Totals has no Play/No Play gate (a real checklist was tried and came back a null result).
MIA Offense vs DAL Defense
| Factor | MIA Offense | DAL Allows | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| eFG% | 54.2%(62.0% L5) | 54.8%(55.5% L5) | 0.6% |
| TOV% | 11.2%(11.7% L5) | 10.9%(10.1% L5) | 0.3% |
| ORB% | 25.1%(24.3% L5) | 25.5%(27.9% L5) | 0.4% |
| FTr | 0.27(0.25 L5) | 0.24(0.27 L5) | 0.03 |
Season avg (L5 in parens). Edge is colored toward whichever side the real numbers favor - lower TOV% forced is bad defense, so that factor's edge direction is flipped to match.
DAL Offense vs MIA Defense
| Factor | DAL Offense | MIA Allows | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| eFG% | 52.7%(52.7% L5) | 54.2%(56.7% L5) | 1.4% |
| TOV% | 12.1%(8.1% L5) | 12.2%(9.3% L5) | 0.0% |
| ORB% | 23.1%(25.9% L5) | 24.5%(26.5% L5) | 1.4% |
| FTr | 0.29(0.28 L5) | 0.24(0.23 L5) | 0.05 |
Season avg (L5 in parens). Edge is colored toward whichever side the real numbers favor - lower TOV% forced is bad defense, so that factor's edge direction is flipped to match.
Schedule & recent form
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