NBA game details
NO
DENSaturday, October 24 at 9:00 PM ET
Spread
Margin/fair line/market spread/cover probability are estimate/display only - no historical NBA odds archive to backtest a real betting edge against. Play/No Play is a real, backtested straight-up-accuracy signal, not a proven betting edge.
Totals
Model total/fair line/market total/over probability are estimate/display only - no historical NBA odds archive to backtest a real betting edge against. Totals has no Play/No Play gate (a real checklist was tried and came back a null result).
DEN Offense vs NO Defense
| Factor | DEN Offense | NO Allows | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| eFG% | 57.8%(59.9% L5) | 55.6%(56.9% L5) | 2.2% |
| TOV% | 10.9%(9.6% L5) | 11.8%(11.2% L5) | 0.9% |
| ORB% | 23.6%(28.4% L5) | 28.5%(26.0% L5) | 4.9% |
| FTr | 0.30(0.21 L5) | 0.26(0.30 L5) | 0.04 |
Season avg (L5 in parens). Edge is colored toward whichever side the real numbers favor - lower TOV% forced is bad defense, so that factor's edge direction is flipped to match.
NO Offense vs DEN Defense
| Factor | NO Offense | DEN Allows | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| eFG% | 52.8%(52.5% L5) | 54.3%(54.7% L5) | 1.5% |
| TOV% | 11.7%(11.0% L5) | 9.9%(9.1% L5) | 1.7% |
| ORB% | 26.7%(24.9% L5) | 24.8%(25.3% L5) | 1.9% |
| FTr | 0.29(0.31 L5) | 0.26(0.23 L5) | 0.03 |
Season avg (L5 in parens). Edge is colored toward whichever side the real numbers favor - lower TOV% forced is bad defense, so that factor's edge direction is flipped to match.
Schedule & recent form
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