NBA game details
HOU
ATLSaturday, October 24 at 8:30 PM ET
Spread
Margin/fair line/market spread/cover probability are estimate/display only - no historical NBA odds archive to backtest a real betting edge against. Play/No Play is a real, backtested straight-up-accuracy signal, not a proven betting edge.
Totals
Model total/fair line/market total/over probability are estimate/display only - no historical NBA odds archive to backtest a real betting edge against. Totals has no Play/No Play gate (a real checklist was tried and came back a null result).
ATL Offense vs HOU Defense
| Factor | ATL Offense | HOU Allows | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| eFG% | 55.4%(56.7% L5) | 53.3%(54.1% L5) | 2.2% |
| TOV% | 11.6%(11.2% L5) | 11.6%(11.7% L5) | 0.0% |
| ORB% | 24.2%(27.5% L5) | 25.1%(19.2% L5) | 0.9% |
| FTr | 0.24(0.21 L5) | 0.25(0.28 L5) | 0.02 |
Season avg (L5 in parens). Edge is colored toward whichever side the real numbers favor - lower TOV% forced is bad defense, so that factor's edge direction is flipped to match.
HOU Offense vs ATL Defense
| Factor | HOU Offense | ATL Allows | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| eFG% | 54.5%(56.4% L5) | 54.6%(56.0% L5) | 0.1% |
| TOV% | 12.6%(11.7% L5) | 13.2%(12.5% L5) | 0.6% |
| ORB% | 34.6%(36.7% L5) | 25.3%(22.2% L5) | 9.3% |
| FTr | 0.26(0.26 L5) | 0.26(0.25 L5) | 0.00 |
Season avg (L5 in parens). Edge is colored toward whichever side the real numbers favor - lower TOV% forced is bad defense, so that factor's edge direction is flipped to match.
Schedule & recent form
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