NBA game details
MIL
PHISaturday, October 24 at 7:30 PM ET
Spread
Margin/fair line/market spread/cover probability are estimate/display only - no historical NBA odds archive to backtest a real betting edge against. Play/No Play is a real, backtested straight-up-accuracy signal, not a proven betting edge.
Totals
Model total/fair line/market total/over probability are estimate/display only - no historical NBA odds archive to backtest a real betting edge against. Totals has no Play/No Play gate (a real checklist was tried and came back a null result).
PHI Offense vs MIL Defense
| Factor | PHI Offense | MIL Allows | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| eFG% | 53.1%(49.6% L5) | 55.9%(56.5% L5) | 2.8% |
| TOV% | 11.4%(11.2% L5) | 11.1%(10.2% L5) | 0.3% |
| ORB% | 26.0%(26.4% L5) | 25.7%(25.7% L5) | 0.4% |
| FTr | 0.28(0.25 L5) | 0.28(0.28 L5) | 0.00 |
Season avg (L5 in parens). Edge is colored toward whichever side the real numbers favor - lower TOV% forced is bad defense, so that factor's edge direction is flipped to match.
MIL Offense vs PHI Defense
| Factor | MIL Offense | PHI Allows | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| eFG% | 56.6%(59.0% L5) | 54.3%(51.7% L5) | 2.3% |
| TOV% | 13.4%(15.7% L5) | 12.8%(12.7% L5) | 0.5% |
| ORB% | 20.9%(26.8% L5) | 27.4%(27.9% L5) | 6.4% |
| FTr | 0.23(0.23 L5) | 0.27(0.25 L5) | 0.05 |
Season avg (L5 in parens). Edge is colored toward whichever side the real numbers favor - lower TOV% forced is bad defense, so that factor's edge direction is flipped to match.
Schedule & recent form
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