NBA game details
MIA
CHASaturday, October 24 at 6:00 PM ET
Spread
Margin/fair line/market spread/cover probability are estimate/display only - no historical NBA odds archive to backtest a real betting edge against. Play/No Play is a real, backtested straight-up-accuracy signal, not a proven betting edge.
Totals
Model total/fair line/market total/over probability are estimate/display only - no historical NBA odds archive to backtest a real betting edge against. Totals has no Play/No Play gate (a real checklist was tried and came back a null result).
CHA Offense vs MIA Defense
| Factor | CHA Offense | MIA Allows | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| eFG% | 55.4%(55.0% L5) | 54.2%(56.7% L5) | 1.2% |
| TOV% | 12.8%(12.3% L5) | 12.2%(9.3% L5) | 0.6% |
| ORB% | 30.6%(31.0% L5) | 24.5%(26.5% L5) | 6.0% |
| FTr | 0.25(0.19 L5) | 0.24(0.23 L5) | 0.00 |
Season avg (L5 in parens). Edge is colored toward whichever side the real numbers favor - lower TOV% forced is bad defense, so that factor's edge direction is flipped to match.
MIA Offense vs CHA Defense
| Factor | MIA Offense | CHA Allows | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| eFG% | 54.2%(62.0% L5) | 54.0%(54.8% L5) | 0.3% |
| TOV% | 11.2%(11.7% L5) | 11.1%(11.6% L5) | 0.1% |
| ORB% | 25.1%(24.3% L5) | 23.3%(30.1% L5) | 1.8% |
| FTr | 0.27(0.25 L5) | 0.23(0.18 L5) | 0.04 |
Season avg (L5 in parens). Edge is colored toward whichever side the real numbers favor - lower TOV% forced is bad defense, so that factor's edge direction is flipped to match.
Schedule & recent form
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