MLB hitter props

Jackson Holliday

vs Payton TolleProjected lineup1:35 PM ET

HR probability

11.4%

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Season HR%

1.9%

Park factor

3.2

Analytics

Hits Snapshot

Market line

0.5

DraftKings

Model projection

Expected hits

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Hits

0.8

Last 10 games

Average margin

+0.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

Stat color key

Colors compare each metric with its league-average baseline.

Elite25%+ above average

Above Average10–25% above

League AverageWithin 10%

Below Average10%+ below

Analytics

Hits, Bases & SB Props

Market	Projection	Line	Edge	Actual	Trend
Hits	1.0	0.5DraftKings	+0.5	—	40% (4/10)· 3U streak
H+R+R	1.8	0.5DraftKings	+1.3	—	50% (5/10)· 3U streak
Total Bases	1.3	—	+0.0	—	30% (3/10)· 3U streak
Stolen Bases	0.1	0.5DraftKings	-0.4	—	10% (1/10)· 9U streak

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Analytics

Hits Ladder

1+ Hits

67.8%Line

2+ Hits

27.7%

3+ Hits

6.8%

4+ Hits

1.2%

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Analytics

Power & Contact Profile

Barrel%

6.7%

Hard Hit%

32.6%

Exit Velo

86 mph

EV90

101 mph

Sweet Spot%

38.8%

Fly Ball%

22.5%

xSLG

0.480

ISO

0.105

22.6%

Contact%

77.7%

Bat Speed

68.4 mph

Swing Length

6.88 ft

Platoon HR%

1.4%

Analytics

Matchup History vs Payton Tolle

View Payton Tolle's report →

Avg

0.333

Analytics

Opposing Pitcher — Payton Tolle

View Payton Tolle's report →

HR% Allowed

3.5%

Barrel% Allowed

7.3%

Hard Hit% Allowed

33.2%

xSLG Allowed

0.483

Fly Ball% Allowed

26.8%

HR/FB

20.3%

HR/9 (est.)

1.35

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Prop performance terminal

HITS RESULTS

Historical hits performance against the selected market line.

Select prop

Situation:

40% (4/10)· 3U streak

Hits Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

0.5

0.56

Over

Under

Push

Line 0.5Model 1

Sep 5

vs BOS

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 4

vs BOS

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 3

vs BOS

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 2

@ COL

OVER

Hits

+1.5

Sep 1

@ COL

OVER

Hits

+2.5

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Analytics

Facing Today

View Payton Tolle's report →

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo	Jackson Holliday's K% vs Pitch
4-Seam Fastball	42.9%	25.3%	24.6%	96.1	23%
Cutter	22.3%	27.1%	19.5%	88.6	8.3%
Sinker	22.1%	15.2%	20%	94.9	28.6%
Curveball	9.5%	38.6%	30.8%	83.1	32.3%
Changeup	3.1%	11.8%	14.3%	88.7	18.9%

Green = a plus pitch for Payton Tolle (Whiff%/Put-away% ≥30%/25%), or a real weakness for Jackson Holliday (K% vs Pitch ≥25%)Red = a below-average pitch for the pitcher (≤15%/12%), or one Jackson Holliday handles well (K% vs Pitch ≤12%)

Analytics

Vs. Pitcher's Arsenal (HR Model)

Pitch	Usage	P Hard Hit%	P wOBA	Batter Hard Hit%	Batter wOBA
4-Seam Fastball	42.9%	44%	0.334	37.9%	0.334
Cutter	22.3%	23.2%	0.286	38.5%	0.438
Sinker	22.1%	28.1%	0.379	28.6%	0.360
Curveball	9.5%	29.4%	0.174	35.7%	0.222
Changeup	3.1%	33.3%	0.571	31%	0.193

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