MLB hitter props

Carter Jensen

vs Spencer ArrighettiProjected lineup2:10 PM ET

HR probability

13.8%

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Season HR%

4.5%

Park factor

3.0

Analytics

Hits Snapshot

Market line

0.5

DraftKings

Model projection

1.1

Expected hits

Hit rate

80%

8 of 10 overs

Average Hits

1.3

Last 10 games

Average margin

+0.8

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

Stat color key

Colors compare each metric with its league-average baseline.

Elite25%+ above average

Above Average10–25% above

League AverageWithin 10%

Below Average10%+ below

Analytics

Hits, Bases & SB Props

Market	Projection	Line	Edge	Actual	Trend
Hits	1.1	0.5DraftKings	+0.6	—	80% (8/10)· 1U streak
H+R+R	2.2	1.5DraftKings	+0.7	—	60% (6/10)· 2U streak
Total Bases	1.9	—	+0.0	—	70% (7/10)· 1U streak
Stolen Bases	0.1	0.5DraftKings	-0.4	—	10% (1/10)· 9U streak

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Analytics

Hits Ladder

1+ Hits

68.5%Line

2+ Hits

28.8%

3+ Hits

7.2%

4+ Hits

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Analytics

Power & Contact Profile

Barrel%

12.8%

Hard Hit%

48.4%

Exit Velo

92.3 mph

EV90

107.2 mph

Sweet Spot%

35.6%

Fly Ball%

36.7%

xSLG

0.622

ISO

0.241

26.5%

Contact%

76.1%

Bat Speed

71.4 mph

Swing Length

7.09 ft

Platoon HR%

5.2%

Analytics

Matchup History vs Spencer Arrighetti

View Spencer Arrighetti's report →

Avg

0.500

Analytics

Opposing Pitcher — Spencer Arrighetti

View Spencer Arrighetti's report →

HR% Allowed

5.5%

Barrel% Allowed

10.4%

Hard Hit% Allowed

32.1%

xSLG Allowed

0.582

Fly Ball% Allowed

30.6%

HR/FB

29.3%

HR/9 (est.)

2.13

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Prop performance terminal

HITS RESULTS

Historical hits performance against the selected market line.

Select prop

Situation:

80% (8/10)· 1U streak

Hits Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

0.5

0.56

Over

Under

Push

Line 0.5Model 1.1

Sep 5

vs TOR

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 4

vs TOR

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Sep 3

vs MIA

OVER

Hits

+2.5

Sep 2

vs MIA

OVER

Hits

+1.5

Sep 1

vs MIA

OVER

Hits

+1.5

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Analytics

Facing Today

View Spencer Arrighetti's report →

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo	Carter Jensen's K% vs Pitch
Curveball	33%	34.9%	24.2%	76.6	27.3%
4-Seam Fastball	28.9%	21.5%	18.6%	92.3	24.6%
Sweeper	10.6%	29.4%	28%	80.5	22.6%
Sinker	10.4%	13.5%	20%	92.1	24.2%
Cutter	8%	5.9%	28.6%	88.1	32.3%
Changeup	7.4%	18.5%	7.7%	84.3	17.3%
Slider	1.7%	25%	0%	82.3	25.6%

Green = a plus pitch for Spencer Arrighetti (Whiff%/Put-away% ≥30%/25%), or a real weakness for Carter Jensen (K% vs Pitch ≥25%)Red = a below-average pitch for the pitcher (≤15%/12%), or one Carter Jensen handles well (K% vs Pitch ≤12%)

Analytics

Vs. Pitcher's Arsenal (HR Model)

Pitch	Usage	P Hard Hit%	P wOBA	Batter Hard Hit%	Batter wOBA
Curveball	33%	32.4%	0.376	42.9%	0.284
4-Seam Fastball	28.9%	36.1%	0.416	43.4%	0.332
Sweeper	10.6%	20%	0.332	31.4%	0.228
Sinker	10.4%	20%	0.421	53.8%	0.411
Cutter	8%	43.8%	0.416	73.9%	0.551
Changeup	7.4%	25%	0.050	39%	0.272
Slider	1.7%	--	--	46.5%	0.266

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