MLB hitter props

Jac Caglianone

vs Spencer ArrighettiProjected lineup2:10 PM ET

HR probability

14.2%

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Season HR%

5.8%

Park factor

3.0

Analytics

Hits Snapshot

Market line

0.5

DraftKings

Model projection

1.1

Expected hits

Hit rate

70%

7 of 10 overs

Average Hits

1.4

Last 10 games

Average margin

+0.9

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

Stat color key

Colors compare each metric with its league-average baseline.

Elite25%+ above average

Above Average10–25% above

League AverageWithin 10%

Below Average10%+ below

Analytics

Hits, Bases & SB Props

Market	Projection	Line	Edge	Actual	Trend
Hits	1.1	0.5DraftKings	+0.6	—	70% (7/10)· 1O streak
H+R+R	2.2	1.5DraftKings	+0.7	—	70% (7/10)· 1O streak
Total Bases	1.9	—	+0.0	—	60% (6/10)· 2U streak
Stolen Bases	0.1	—	+0.0	—	0% (0/10)· 10U streak

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Analytics

Hits Ladder

1+ Hits

69.2%Line

2+ Hits

30.6%

3+ Hits

8.1%

4+ Hits

1.2%

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Analytics

Power & Contact Profile

Barrel%

12.7%

Hard Hit%

51.2%

Exit Velo

92.5 mph

EV90

109.7 mph

Sweet Spot%

33.3%

Fly Ball%

23.0%

xSLG

0.706

ISO

0.250

22.6%

Contact%

74.6%

Bat Speed

75.7 mph

Swing Length

7.81 ft

Platoon HR%

6.3%

Analytics

Matchup History vs Spencer Arrighetti

View Spencer Arrighetti's report →

Avg

0.600

Analytics

Opposing Pitcher — Spencer Arrighetti

View Spencer Arrighetti's report →

HR% Allowed

5.5%

Barrel% Allowed

10.4%

Hard Hit% Allowed

32.1%

xSLG Allowed

0.582

Fly Ball% Allowed

30.6%

HR/FB

29.3%

HR/9 (est.)

2.13

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Prop performance terminal

HITS RESULTS

Historical hits performance against the selected market line.

Select prop

Situation:

70% (7/10)· 1O streak

Hits Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

0.5

0.56

Over

Under

Push

Line 0.5Model 1.1

Sep 5

vs TOR

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Sep 4

vs TOR

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 3

vs MIA

OVER

Hits

+1.5

Sep 2

vs MIA

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Sep 1

vs MIA

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

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Analytics

Facing Today

View Spencer Arrighetti's report →

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo	Jac Caglianone's K% vs Pitch
Curveball	33%	34.9%	24.2%	76.6	21.3%
4-Seam Fastball	28.9%	21.5%	18.6%	92.3	31.5%
Sweeper	10.6%	29.4%	28%	80.5	24.6%
Sinker	10.4%	13.5%	20%	92.1	18.6%
Cutter	8%	5.9%	28.6%	88.1	22.2%
Changeup	7.4%	18.5%	7.7%	84.3	19.4%
Slider	1.7%	25%	0%	82.3	27.3%

Green = a plus pitch for Spencer Arrighetti (Whiff%/Put-away% ≥30%/25%), or a real weakness for Jac Caglianone (K% vs Pitch ≥25%)Red = a below-average pitch for the pitcher (≤15%/12%), or one Jac Caglianone handles well (K% vs Pitch ≤12%)

Analytics

Vs. Pitcher's Arsenal (HR Model)

Pitch	Usage	P Hard Hit%	P wOBA	Batter Hard Hit%	Batter wOBA
Curveball	33%	32.4%	0.376	51.9%	0.307
4-Seam Fastball	28.9%	36.1%	0.416	64.9%	0.404
Sweeper	10.6%	20%	0.332	51.9%	0.276
Sinker	10.4%	20%	0.421	50.9%	0.279
Cutter	8%	43.8%	0.416	51.6%	0.327
Changeup	7.4%	25%	0.050	46%	0.379
Slider	1.7%	--	--	60%	0.494

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