MLB hitter props

Heriberto Hernández

vs Clay HolmesProjected lineup1:40 PM ET

HR probability

11.4%

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Season HR%

6.2%

Park factor

2.3

Analytics

Hits Snapshot

Market line

0.5

DraftKings

Model projection

Expected hits

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Hits

0.7

Last 10 games

Average margin

+0.2

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

Stat color key

Colors compare each metric with its league-average baseline.

Elite25%+ above average

Above Average10–25% above

League AverageWithin 10%

Below Average10%+ below

Analytics

Hits, Bases & SB Props

Market	Projection	Line	Edge	Actual	Trend
Hits	1.0	0.5DraftKings	+0.5	—	50% (5/10)· 2U streak
H+R+R	1.9	1.5DraftKings	+0.4	—	50% (5/10)· 2U streak
Total Bases	1.6	—	+0.0	—	50% (5/10)· 2U streak
Stolen Bases	0.1	—	+0.0	—	20% (2/10)· 6U streak

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Analytics

Hits Ladder

1+ Hits

67.4%Line

2+ Hits

27.7%

3+ Hits

7.1%

4+ Hits

1.2%

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Analytics

Power & Contact Profile

Barrel%

16.2%

Hard Hit%

48.0%

Exit Velo

91.3 mph

EV90

105.9 mph

Sweet Spot%

35.3%

Fly Ball%

32.9%

xSLG

0.729

ISO

0.272

28.7%

Contact%

68.2%

Bat Speed

72 mph

Swing Length

7.67 ft

Platoon HR%

5.5%

Analytics

Matchup History vs Clay Holmes

View Clay Holmes's report →

Avg

0.000

Analytics

Opposing Pitcher — Clay Holmes

View Clay Holmes's report →

HR% Allowed

0.9%

Barrel% Allowed

4.8%

Hard Hit% Allowed

38.1%

xSLG Allowed

0.438

Fly Ball% Allowed

13.1%

HR/FB

9.1%

HR/9 (est.)

0.35

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Prop performance terminal

HITS RESULTS

Historical hits performance against the selected market line.

Select prop

Situation:

50% (5/10)· 2U streak

Hits Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

0.5

0.56

Over

Under

Push

Line 0.5Model 1

Sep 5

vs CHC

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 4

vs CHC

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 3

@ KC

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Sep 2

@ KC

OVER

Hits

+1.5

Sep 1

@ KC

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

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Analytics

Facing Today

View Clay Holmes's report →

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo	Heriberto Hernández's K% vs Pitch
Sinker	48.6%	7.3%	16%	92.3	23.2%
Sweeper	16.7%	12%	4%	80.4	23.1%
Cutter	16.5%	50%	36.4%	84.6	31.8%
Changeup	12.1%	31.8%	21.1%	87	22.9%
Curveball	4%	20%	16.7%	80	25.7%

Green = a plus pitch for Clay Holmes (Whiff%/Put-away% ≥30%/25%), or a real weakness for Heriberto Hernández (K% vs Pitch ≥25%)Red = a below-average pitch for the pitcher (≤15%/12%), or one Heriberto Hernández handles well (K% vs Pitch ≤12%)

Analytics

Vs. Pitcher's Arsenal (HR Model)

Pitch	Usage	P Hard Hit%	P wOBA	Batter Hard Hit%	Batter wOBA
Sinker	48.6%	50.9%	0.284	44.2%	0.367
Sweeper	16.7%	18.2%	0.283	25%	0.305
Cutter	16.5%	25%	0.197	47.4%	0.346
Changeup	12.1%	11.1%	0.138	25%	0.309
Curveball	4%	--	--	37.5%	0.304

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