MLB hitter props

Jarren Duran

vs Kyle BradishProjected lineup1:35 PM ET

HR probability

11.3%

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Season HR%

3.0%

Park factor

3.2

Analytics

Hits Snapshot

Market line

0.5

DraftKings

Model projection

Expected hits

Hit rate

40%

4 of 10 overs

Average Hits

0.4

Last 10 games

Average margin

-0.1

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

Stat color key

Colors compare each metric with its league-average baseline.

Elite25%+ above average

Above Average10–25% above

League AverageWithin 10%

Below Average10%+ below

Analytics

Hits, Bases & SB Props

Market	Projection	Line	Edge	Actual	Trend
Hits	1.0	0.5DraftKings	+0.5	—	40% (4/10)· 1U streak
H+R+R	1.8	1.5DraftKings	+0.3	—	10% (1/10)· 5U streak
Total Bases	1.4	—	+0.0	—	10% (1/10)· 5U streak
Stolen Bases	0.1	0.5DraftKings	-0.4	—	0% (0/10)· 10U streak

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Analytics

Hits Ladder

1+ Hits

64.6%Line

2+ Hits

25.4%

3+ Hits

6.4%

4+ Hits

0.8%

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Analytics

Power & Contact Profile

Barrel%

7.7%

Hard Hit%

39.8%

Exit Velo

88 mph

EV90

105.7 mph

Sweet Spot%

31.6%

Fly Ball%

23.0%

xSLG

0.536

ISO

0.130

27.2%

Contact%

71.1%

Bat Speed

72.8 mph

Swing Length

7.45 ft

Platoon HR%

3.4%

Analytics

Matchup History vs Kyle Bradish

View Kyle Bradish's report →

Avg

0.154

Analytics

Opposing Pitcher — Kyle Bradish

View Kyle Bradish's report →

HR% Allowed

2.7%

Barrel% Allowed

6.5%

Hard Hit% Allowed

39.7%

xSLG Allowed

0.519

Fly Ball% Allowed

27.6%

HR/FB

14.1%

HR/9 (est.)

1.05

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Prop performance terminal

HITS RESULTS

Historical hits performance against the selected market line.

Select prop

Situation:

40% (4/10)· 1U streak

Hits Simulator

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Active line

0.5

0.56

Over

Under

Push

Line 0.5Model 1

Sep 5

@ BAL

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 4

@ BAL

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Sep 3

@ BAL

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 2

vs SEA

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 1

vs SEA

OVER

Hits

+0.5

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Analytics

Facing Today

View Kyle Bradish's report →

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo	Jarren Duran's K% vs Pitch
Sinker	41.2%	10.7%	20.1%	94.8	12.2%
Slider	21.8%	39%	16.5%	88	35.8%
Curveball	20.9%	29.4%	14.7%	85.4	18%
4-Seam Fastball	15%	13%	20.7%	94.4	25.4%
Changeup	1.1%	—	0%	90.4	22%

Green = a plus pitch for Kyle Bradish (Whiff%/Put-away% ≥30%/25%), or a real weakness for Jarren Duran (K% vs Pitch ≥25%)Red = a below-average pitch for the pitcher (≤15%/12%), or one Jarren Duran handles well (K% vs Pitch ≤12%)

Analytics

Vs. Pitcher's Arsenal (HR Model)

Pitch	Usage	P Hard Hit%	P wOBA	Batter Hard Hit%	Batter wOBA
Sinker	41.2%	41.2%	0.298	54.7%	0.420
Slider	21.8%	28.9%	0.347	31%	0.222
Curveball	20.9%	46.7%	0.390	37.9%	0.234
4-Seam Fastball	15%	37.1%	0.395	45.2%	0.259
Changeup	1.1%	--	--	39.6%	0.284

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