MLB hitter props
Nick Loftin
HR probability
9.6%
Season HR%
2.3%
Park factor
3.0
Analytics
Hits Snapshot
Market line
0.5
DraftKings
Model projection
0.9
Expected hits
Hit rate
80%
8 of 10 overs
Average Hits
0.9
Last 10 games
Average margin
+0.4
Vs selected line
Current streak
1
OVER
Stat color key
Colors compare each metric with its league-average baseline.
Analytics
Hits, Bases & SB Props
| Market | Projection | Line | Edge | Actual | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hits | 0.9 | 0.5DraftKings | +0.4 | — | 80% (8/10)· 1O streak |
| H+R+R | 1.8 | 1.5DraftKings | +0.3 | — | 40% (4/10)· 3U streak |
| Total Bases | 1.4 | — | +0.0 | — | 40% (4/10)· 4U streak |
| Stolen Bases | 0.1 | 0.5DraftKings | -0.4 | — | 10% (1/10)· 3U streak |
Analytics
Hits Ladder
Analytics
Power & Contact Profile
Barrel%
3.7%
Hard Hit%
27.5%
Exit Velo
85.6 mph
EV90
101 mph
Sweet Spot%
37.0%
Fly Ball%
31.7%
xSLG
0.427
ISO
0.158
K%
18.0%
Contact%
82.0%
Bat Speed
65.4 mph
Swing Length
6.98 ft
Platoon HR%
3.0%
Analytics
Matchup History vs Spencer Arrighetti
View Spencer Arrighetti's report →No recorded plate appearances between these two players.
Analytics
Opposing Pitcher — Spencer Arrighetti
View Spencer Arrighetti's report →HR% Allowed
5.5%
Barrel% Allowed
10.4%
Hard Hit% Allowed
32.1%
xSLG Allowed
0.582
Fly Ball% Allowed
30.6%
HR/FB
29.3%
HR/9 (est.)
2.13
Prop performance terminal
HITS RESULTS
Historical hits performance against the selected market line.
Hits Simulator
Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.
Active line
0.5
Over
8
Under
2
Push
0
Sep 5
vs TOR
Hits
1
+0.5
Sep 4
vs TOR
Hits
0
-0.5
Sep 3
vs MIA
Hits
1
+0.5
Sep 2
vs MIA
Hits
1
+0.5
Sep 1
vs MIA
Hits
1
+0.5
Analytics
Facing Today
View Spencer Arrighetti's report →| Pitch | Usage | Whiff% | Put-away% | Velo | Nick Loftin's K% vs Pitch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curveball | 33% | 34.9% | 24.2% | 76.6 | 34.8% |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 28.9% | 21.5% | 18.6% | 92.3 | 13% |
| Sweeper | 10.6% | 29.4% | 28% | 80.5 | 27% |
| Sinker | 10.4% | 13.5% | 20% | 92.1 | 18.9% |
| Cutter | 8% | 5.9% | 28.6% | 88.1 | 0% |
| Changeup | 7.4% | 18.5% | 7.7% | 84.3 | 13.9% |
| Slider | 1.7% | 25% | 0% | 82.3 | 20.3% |
Green = a plus pitch for Spencer Arrighetti (Whiff%/Put-away% ≥30%/25%), or a real weakness for Nick Loftin (K% vs Pitch ≥25%)Red = a below-average pitch for the pitcher (≤15%/12%), or one Nick Loftin handles well (K% vs Pitch ≤12%)
Analytics
Vs. Pitcher's Arsenal (HR Model)
| Pitch | Usage | P Hard Hit% | P wOBA | Batter Hard Hit% | Batter wOBA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curveball | 33% | 32.4% | 0.376 | 25% | 0.263 |
| 4-Seam Fastball | 28.9% | 36.1% | 0.416 | 28.6% | 0.402 |
| Sweeper | 10.6% | 20% | 0.332 | 9.5% | 0.253 |
| Sinker | 10.4% | 20% | 0.421 | 28.3% | 0.360 |
| Cutter | 8% | 43.8% | 0.416 | 44.8% | 0.303 |
| Changeup | 7.4% | 25% | 0.050 | 28.6% | 0.240 |
| Slider | 1.7% | -- | -- | 13.3% | 0.299 |