MLB hitter props

Ezequiel Tovar

vs Kyle LeahyProjected lineup3:10 PM ET

HR probability

11.5%

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Season HR%

2.8%

Park factor

3.4

Analytics

Hits Snapshot

Market line

0.5

Selected line

Model projection

0.8

Expected hits

Hit rate

50%

5 of 10 overs

Average Hits

0.7

Last 10 games

Average margin

+0.2

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

Stat color key

Colors compare each metric with its league-average baseline.

Elite25%+ above average

Above Average10–25% above

League AverageWithin 10%

Below Average10%+ below

Analytics

Hits, Bases & SB Props

Market	Projection	Line	Edge	Actual	Trend
Hits	0.8	—	+0.0	—	50% (5/10)· 2O streak
H+R+R	1.4	—	+0.0	—	30% (3/10)· 1O streak
Total Bases	1.1	—	+0.0	—	20% (2/10)· 1O streak
Stolen Bases	0.1	—	+0.0	—	20% (2/10)· 1O streak

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Analytics

Hits Ladder

1+ Hits

60.1%

2+ Hits

20.6%

3+ Hits

3.6%

4+ Hits

0.4%

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Analytics

Power & Contact Profile

Barrel%

4.6%

Hard Hit%

31.1%

Exit Velo

85 mph

EV90

103.2 mph

Sweet Spot%

33.1%

Fly Ball%

32.5%

xSLG

0.450

ISO

0.131

24.0%

Contact%

74.7%

Bat Speed

70.3 mph

Swing Length

7.38 ft

Platoon HR%

3.0%

Analytics

Matchup History vs Kyle Leahy

View Kyle Leahy's report →

Avg

0.250

Analytics

Opposing Pitcher — Kyle Leahy

View Kyle Leahy's report →

HR% Allowed

1.8%

Barrel% Allowed

8.9%

Hard Hit% Allowed

46.3%

xSLG Allowed

0.507

Fly Ball% Allowed

23.7%

HR/FB

11.1%

HR/9 (est.)

0.70

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Prop performance terminal

HITS RESULTS

Historical hits performance against the selected market line.

Select prop

Situation:

50% (5/10)· 2O streak

Hits Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

0.5

0.56

Over

Under

Push

Line 0.5Model 0.8

Sep 5

vs STL

OVER

Hits

+1.5

Sep 4

vs STL

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Sep 2

vs BAL

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 1

vs BAL

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Aug 31

vs BAL

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

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Analytics

Facing Today

View Kyle Leahy's report →

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo	Ezequiel Tovar's K% vs Pitch
4-Seam Fastball	23.3%	14.3%	9.8%	94.7	20.8%
Curveball	17.2%	25.6%	15.6%	83.4	27.3%
Slider	17.1%	26.4%	35.3%	89.5	16%
Changeup	16%	23.1%	19%	89	25%
Sweeper	14.3%	20.8%	17.3%	85	21.7%
Sinker	12.2%	14.1%	28.3%	94.6	9.5%

Green = a plus pitch for Kyle Leahy (Whiff%/Put-away% ≥30%/25%), or a real weakness for Ezequiel Tovar (K% vs Pitch ≥25%)Red = a below-average pitch for the pitcher (≤15%/12%), or one Ezequiel Tovar handles well (K% vs Pitch ≤12%)

Analytics

Vs. Pitcher's Arsenal (HR Model)

Pitch	Usage	P Hard Hit%	P wOBA	Batter Hard Hit%	Batter wOBA
4-Seam Fastball	23.3%	51.6%	0.464	38.1%	0.225
Curveball	17.2%	41.7%	0.215	18.8%	0.191
Slider	17.1%	46.2%	0.308	23.6%	0.275
Changeup	16%	36.8%	0.222	33.3%	0.301
Sweeper	14.3%	57.1%	0.380	25.8%	0.265
Sinker	12.2%	52%	0.201	38.3%	0.312

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