MLB hitter props

Miguel Vargas

vs Bailey OberProjected lineup6:20 PM ET

HR probability

12.2%

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Season HR%

4.5%

Park factor

3.1

Analytics

Hits Snapshot

Market line

0.5

DraftKings

Model projection

1.1

Expected hits

Hit rate

80%

8 of 10 overs

Average Hits

1.1

Last 10 games

Average margin

+0.6

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

Stat color key

Colors compare each metric with its league-average baseline.

Elite25%+ above average

Above Average10–25% above

League AverageWithin 10%

Below Average10%+ below

Analytics

Hits, Bases & SB Props

Market	Projection	Line	Edge	Actual	Trend
Hits	1.1	0.5DraftKings	+0.6	—	80% (8/10)· 3O streak
H+R+R	2.1	1.5DraftKings	+0.6	—	60% (6/10)· 3O streak
Total Bases	1.7	—	+0.0	—	40% (4/10)· 1U streak
Stolen Bases	0.1	0.5DraftKings	-0.4	—	20% (2/10)· 2U streak

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Analytics

Hits Ladder

1+ Hits

71.5%Line

2+ Hits

31.6%

3+ Hits

8.4%

4+ Hits

1.3%

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Analytics

Power & Contact Profile

Barrel%

13.4%

Hard Hit%

45.0%

Exit Velo

91.4 mph

EV90

103.6 mph

Sweet Spot%

42.0%

Fly Ball%

35.5%

xSLG

0.636

ISO

0.223

17.6%

Contact%

82.7%

Bat Speed

72.1 mph

Swing Length

7.76 ft

Platoon HR%

4.2%

Analytics

Matchup History vs Bailey Ober

View Bailey Ober's report →

Avg

0.000

Analytics

Opposing Pitcher — Bailey Ober

View Bailey Ober's report →

HR% Allowed

3.1%

Barrel% Allowed

10.7%

Hard Hit% Allowed

40.7%

xSLG Allowed

0.584

Fly Ball% Allowed

32.0%

HR/FB

12.5%

HR/9 (est.)

1.18

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Prop performance terminal

HITS RESULTS

Historical hits performance against the selected market line.

Select prop

Situation:

80% (8/10)· 3O streak

Hits Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

0.5

0.56

Over

Under

Push

Line 0.5Model 1.1

Sep 5

vs MIN

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Sep 4

vs MIN

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Sep 3

@ HOU

OVER

Hits

+1.5

Sep 2

@ HOU

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 1

@ HOU

OVER

Hits

+1.5

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Analytics

Facing Today

View Bailey Ober's report →

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo	Miguel Vargas's K% vs Pitch
4-Seam Fastball	33.6%	11.8%	7.9%	87.4	16.9%
Changeup	30.6%	18.9%	13.3%	82.2	9.3%
Slider	19.3%	12.3%	15.8%	82.1	16%
Sweeper	14.1%	45.7%	22.4%	75.4	10.7%
Sinker	1.6%	0%	0%	88	19%

Green = a plus pitch for Bailey Ober (Whiff%/Put-away% ≥30%/25%), or a real weakness for Miguel Vargas (K% vs Pitch ≥25%)Red = a below-average pitch for the pitcher (≤15%/12%), or one Miguel Vargas handles well (K% vs Pitch ≤12%)

Analytics

Vs. Pitcher's Arsenal (HR Model)

Pitch	Usage	P Hard Hit%	P wOBA	Batter Hard Hit%	Batter wOBA
4-Seam Fastball	33.6%	46.4%	0.342	50.8%	0.371
Changeup	30.6%	43.1%	0.353	59.5%	0.402
Slider	19.3%	32.1%	0.282	39.7%	0.301
Sweeper	14.1%	10%	0.154	37%	0.454
Sinker	1.6%	60%	0.360	44.8%	0.377

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