MLB hitter props

Otto Lopez

vs Clay HolmesProjected lineup1:40 PM ET

HR probability

10.1%

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Season HR%

1.5%

Park factor

2.3

Analytics

Hits Snapshot

Market line

0.5

DraftKings

Model projection

1.1

Expected hits

Hit rate

80%

8 of 10 overs

Average Hits

0.9

Last 10 games

Average margin

+0.4

Vs selected line

Current streak

OVER

Stat color key

Colors compare each metric with its league-average baseline.

Elite25%+ above average

Above Average10–25% above

League AverageWithin 10%

Below Average10%+ below

Analytics

Hits, Bases & SB Props

Market	Projection	Line	Edge	Actual	Trend
Hits	1.1	0.5DraftKings	+0.6	—	80% (8/10)· 1O streak
H+R+R	1.8	1.5DraftKings	+0.3	—	50% (5/10)· 1O streak
Total Bases	1.3	—	+0.0	—	40% (4/10)· 1O streak
Stolen Bases	0.1	0.5DraftKings	-0.4	—	10% (1/10)· 9U streak

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Analytics

Hits Ladder

1+ Hits

69.9%Line

2+ Hits

30.4%

3+ Hits

7.9%

4+ Hits

1.7%

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Analytics

Power & Contact Profile

Barrel%

5.1%

Hard Hit%

38.8%

Exit Velo

87.6 mph

EV90

103.9 mph

Sweet Spot%

30.0%

Fly Ball%

21.6%

xSLG

0.442

ISO

0.133

10.3%

Contact%

84.4%

Bat Speed

69 mph

Swing Length

6.62 ft

Platoon HR%

1.2%

Analytics

Matchup History vs Clay Holmes

View Clay Holmes's report →

Avg

0.300

Analytics

Opposing Pitcher — Clay Holmes

View Clay Holmes's report →

HR% Allowed

0.9%

Barrel% Allowed

4.8%

Hard Hit% Allowed

38.1%

xSLG Allowed

0.438

Fly Ball% Allowed

13.1%

HR/FB

9.1%

HR/9 (est.)

0.35

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Prop performance terminal

HITS RESULTS

Historical hits performance against the selected market line.

Select prop

Situation:

80% (8/10)· 1O streak

Hits Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

0.5

0.56

Over

Under

Push

Line 0.5Model 1.1

Sep 5

vs CHC

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Sep 4

vs CHC

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 3

@ KC

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 2

@ KC

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Sep 1

@ KC

OVER

Hits

+0.5

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Analytics

Facing Today

View Clay Holmes's report →

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo	Otto Lopez's K% vs Pitch
Sinker	48.6%	7.3%	16%	92.3	13%
Sweeper	16.7%	12%	4%	80.4	9.5%
Cutter	16.5%	50%	36.4%	84.6	10%
Changeup	12.1%	31.8%	21.1%	87	19.6%
Curveball	4%	20%	16.7%	80	25%

Green = a plus pitch for Clay Holmes (Whiff%/Put-away% ≥30%/25%), or a real weakness for Otto Lopez (K% vs Pitch ≥25%)Red = a below-average pitch for the pitcher (≤15%/12%), or one Otto Lopez handles well (K% vs Pitch ≤12%)

Analytics

Vs. Pitcher's Arsenal (HR Model)

Pitch	Usage	P Hard Hit%	P wOBA	Batter Hard Hit%	Batter wOBA
Sinker	48.6%	50.9%	0.284	51.6%	0.444
Sweeper	16.7%	18.2%	0.283	16.3%	0.273
Cutter	16.5%	25%	0.197	48%	0.329
Changeup	12.1%	11.1%	0.138	26.4%	0.224
Curveball	4%	--	--	21.1%	0.173

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