MLB hitter props

Alejandro Kirk

vs Randy DobnakProjected lineup2:10 PM ET

HR probability

10.2%

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Season HR%

3.0%

Park factor

3.0

Analytics

Hits Snapshot

Market line

1.5

DraftKings

Model projection

1.1

Expected hits

Hit rate

20%

2 of 10 overs

Average Hits

0.9

Last 10 games

Average margin

-0.6

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

Stat color key

Colors compare each metric with its league-average baseline.

Elite25%+ above average

Above Average10–25% above

League AverageWithin 10%

Below Average10%+ below

Analytics

Hits, Bases & SB Props

Market	Projection	Line	Edge	Actual	Trend
Hits	1.1	1.5DraftKings	-0.4	—	20% (2/10)· 1U streak
H+R+R	1.9	2.5DraftKings	-0.6	—	20% (2/10)· 1U streak
Total Bases	1.6	—	+0.0	—	20% (2/10)· 1U streak
Stolen Bases	0.1	—	+0.0	—	10% (1/10)· 5U streak

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Analytics

Hits Ladder

1+ Hits

70%

2+ Hits

30.4%Line

3+ Hits

7.8%

4+ Hits

1.4%

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Analytics

Power & Contact Profile

Barrel%

3.3%

Hard Hit%

40.1%

Exit Velo

88.9 mph

EV90

103.7 mph

Sweet Spot%

33.5%

Fly Ball%

20.3%

xSLG

0.427

ISO

0.127

12.3%

Contact%

85.8%

Bat Speed

70 mph

Swing Length

7 ft

Platoon HR%

3.9%

Analytics

Matchup History vs Randy Dobnak

View Randy Dobnak's report →

Avg

0.000

Analytics

Opposing Pitcher — Randy Dobnak

View Randy Dobnak's report →

HR% Allowed

2.0%

Barrel% Allowed

4.9%

Hard Hit% Allowed

40.2%

xSLG Allowed

0.490

Fly Ball% Allowed

20.7%

HR/FB

13.2%

HR/9 (est.)

0.78

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Prop performance terminal

HITS RESULTS

Historical hits performance against the selected market line.

Select prop

Situation:

20% (2/10)· 1U streak

Hits Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

1.5

0.56

Over

Under

Push

Line 1.5Model 1.1

Sep 5

@ KC

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 4

@ KC

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Sep 2

@ CLE

UNDER

Hits

-1.5

Sep 1

@ CLE

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Aug 30

vs SEA

OVER

Hits

+0.5

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Analytics

Facing Today

View Randy Dobnak's report →

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo	Alejandro Kirk's K% vs Pitch
Sinker	39.4%	6.1%	10.1%	91.5	10.3%
Sweeper	25.3%	30.4%	16.9%	82.3	17.1%
Changeup	21.3%	28.1%	17.5%	84.8	4.3%
4-Seam Fastball	9.1%	11.1%	12.5%	92.2	11.3%
Slider	4.8%	29.6%	11.5%	83.6	9.3%

Green = a plus pitch for Randy Dobnak (Whiff%/Put-away% ≥30%/25%), or a real weakness for Alejandro Kirk (K% vs Pitch ≥25%)Red = a below-average pitch for the pitcher (≤15%/12%), or one Alejandro Kirk handles well (K% vs Pitch ≤12%)

Analytics

Vs. Pitcher's Arsenal (HR Model)

Pitch	Usage	P Hard Hit%	P wOBA	Batter Hard Hit%	Batter wOBA
Sinker	39.4%	48.4%	0.335	44.8%	0.360
Sweeper	25.3%	42.9%	0.334	25%	0.265
Changeup	21.3%	27.8%	0.303	47.4%	0.333
4-Seam Fastball	9.1%	22.2%	0.194	56%	0.380
Slider	4.8%	33.3%	0.331	48.6%	0.360

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