MLB hitter props

Carlos Narváez

vs Payton TolleProjected lineup1:35 PM ET

HR probability

11.2%

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Season HR%

0.7%

Park factor

3.2

Analytics

Hits Snapshot

Market line

0.5

DraftKings

Model projection

0.8

Expected hits

Hit rate

20%

2 of 10 overs

Average Hits

0.2

Last 10 games

Average margin

-0.3

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

Stat color key

Colors compare each metric with its league-average baseline.

Elite25%+ above average

Above Average10–25% above

League AverageWithin 10%

Below Average10%+ below

Analytics

Hits, Bases & SB Props

Market	Projection	Line	Edge	Actual	Trend
Hits	0.8	0.5DraftKings	+0.3	—	20% (2/10)· 3U streak
H+R+R	1.1	0.5DraftKings	+0.6	—	40% (4/10)· 3U streak
Total Bases	0.9	—	+0.0	—	20% (2/10)· 3U streak
Stolen Bases	0.0	—	+0.0	—	0% (0/10)· 10U streak

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Analytics

Hits Ladder

1+ Hits

56%Line

2+ Hits

17.6%

3+ Hits

3.1%

4+ Hits

0.4%

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Analytics

Power & Contact Profile

Barrel%

6.5%

Hard Hit%

40.3%

Exit Velo

85.3 mph

EV90

102.3 mph

Sweet Spot%

35.1%

Fly Ball%

35.1%

xSLG

0.473

ISO

0.043

34.1%

Contact%

64.8%

Bat Speed

69.4 mph

Swing Length

7.34 ft

Platoon HR%

0.0%

Analytics

Matchup History vs Payton Tolle

View Payton Tolle's report →

No recorded plate appearances between these two players.

Analytics

Opposing Pitcher — Payton Tolle

View Payton Tolle's report →

HR% Allowed

3.5%

Barrel% Allowed

7.3%

Hard Hit% Allowed

33.2%

xSLG Allowed

0.483

Fly Ball% Allowed

26.8%

HR/FB

20.3%

HR/9 (est.)

1.35

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Prop performance terminal

HITS RESULTS

Historical hits performance against the selected market line.

Select prop

Situation:

20% (2/10)· 3U streak

Hits Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

0.5

0.56

Over

Under

Push

Line 0.5Model 0.8

Sep 4

vs BOS

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 3

vs BOS

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 2

@ COL

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 1

@ COL

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Aug 30

@ ATH

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

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Analytics

Facing Today

View Payton Tolle's report →

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo	Carlos Narváez's K% vs Pitch
4-Seam Fastball	42.9%	25.3%	24.6%	96.1	24%
Cutter	22.3%	27.1%	19.5%	88.6	14.8%
Sinker	22.1%	15.2%	20%	94.9	15%
Curveball	9.5%	38.6%	30.8%	83.1	5.3%
Changeup	3.1%	11.8%	14.3%	88.7	17.2%

Green = a plus pitch for Payton Tolle (Whiff%/Put-away% ≥30%/25%), or a real weakness for Carlos Narváez (K% vs Pitch ≥25%)Red = a below-average pitch for the pitcher (≤15%/12%), or one Carlos Narváez handles well (K% vs Pitch ≤12%)

Analytics

Vs. Pitcher's Arsenal (HR Model)

Pitch	Usage	P Hard Hit%	P wOBA	Batter Hard Hit%	Batter wOBA
4-Seam Fastball	42.9%	44%	0.334	45%	0.171
Cutter	22.3%	23.2%	0.286	20%	0.312
Sinker	22.1%	28.1%	0.379	50%	0.321
Curveball	9.5%	29.4%	0.174	--	0.588
Changeup	3.1%	33.3%	0.571	23.1%	0.268

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