MLB hitter props

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

vs Randy DobnakProjected lineup2:10 PM ET

HR probability

10.2%

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Season HR%

1.8%

Park factor

3.0

Analytics

Hits Snapshot

Market line

1.5

DraftKings

Model projection

1.1

Expected hits

Hit rate

20%

2 of 10 overs

Average Hits

1.0

Last 10 games

Average margin

-0.5

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

Stat color key

Colors compare each metric with its league-average baseline.

Elite25%+ above average

Above Average10–25% above

League AverageWithin 10%

Below Average10%+ below

Analytics

Hits, Bases & SB Props

Market	Projection	Line	Edge	Actual	Trend
Hits	1.1	1.5DraftKings	-0.4	—	20% (2/10)· 1U streak
H+R+R	1.9	2.5DraftKings	-0.6	—	30% (3/10)· 1U streak
Total Bases	1.6	—	+0.0	—	30% (3/10)· 1U streak
Stolen Bases	0.0	—	+0.0	—	0% (0/10)· 10U streak

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Analytics

Hits Ladder

1+ Hits

71.2%

2+ Hits

31.6%Line

3+ Hits

8.9%

4+ Hits

1.5%

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Analytics

Power & Contact Profile

Barrel%

6.6%

Hard Hit%

42.7%

Exit Velo

90.2 mph

EV90

108 mph

Sweet Spot%

27.2%

Fly Ball%

20.2%

xSLG

0.452

ISO

0.103

15.0%

Contact%

84.0%

Bat Speed

74.8 mph

Swing Length

7.59 ft

Platoon HR%

2.1%

Analytics

Matchup History vs Randy Dobnak

View Randy Dobnak's report →

Avg

0.333

Analytics

Opposing Pitcher — Randy Dobnak

View Randy Dobnak's report →

HR% Allowed

2.0%

Barrel% Allowed

4.9%

Hard Hit% Allowed

40.2%

xSLG Allowed

0.490

Fly Ball% Allowed

20.7%

HR/FB

13.2%

HR/9 (est.)

0.78

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Prop performance terminal

HITS RESULTS

Historical hits performance against the selected market line.

Select prop

Situation:

20% (2/10)· 1U streak

Hits Simulator

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Active line

1.5

0.56

Over

Under

Push

Line 1.5Model 1.1

Sep 5

@ KC

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 4

@ KC

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Sep 3

@ CLE

UNDER

Hits

-1.5

Sep 2

@ CLE

OVER

Hits

+1.5

Sep 1

@ CLE

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

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Analytics

Facing Today

View Randy Dobnak's report →

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo	Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s K% vs Pitch
Sinker	39.4%	6.1%	10.1%	91.5	9.6%
Sweeper	25.3%	30.4%	16.9%	82.3	16.1%
Changeup	21.3%	28.1%	17.5%	84.8	9.8%
4-Seam Fastball	9.1%	11.1%	12.5%	92.2	10.3%
Slider	4.8%	29.6%	11.5%	83.6	17.1%

Green = a plus pitch for Randy Dobnak (Whiff%/Put-away% ≥30%/25%), or a real weakness for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (K% vs Pitch ≥25%)Red = a below-average pitch for the pitcher (≤15%/12%), or one Vladimir Guerrero Jr. handles well (K% vs Pitch ≤12%)

Analytics

Vs. Pitcher's Arsenal (HR Model)

Pitch	Usage	P Hard Hit%	P wOBA	Batter Hard Hit%	Batter wOBA
Sinker	39.4%	48.4%	0.335	50.4%	0.383
Sweeper	25.3%	42.9%	0.334	31%	0.250
Changeup	21.3%	27.8%	0.303	43.2%	0.345
4-Seam Fastball	9.1%	22.2%	0.194	43.2%	0.382
Slider	4.8%	33.3%	0.331	32.7%	0.186

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