MLB hitter props

Jake McCarthy

vs Kyle LeahyProjected lineup3:10 PM ET

HR probability

11.7%

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Season HR%

3.1%

Park factor

3.4

Analytics

Hits Snapshot

Market line

1.5

DraftKings

Model projection

1.1

Expected hits

Hit rate

30%

3 of 10 overs

Average Hits

1.1

Last 10 games

Average margin

-0.4

Vs selected line

Current streak

UNDER

Stat color key

Colors compare each metric with its league-average baseline.

Elite25%+ above average

Above Average10–25% above

League AverageWithin 10%

Below Average10%+ below

Analytics

Hits, Bases & SB Props

Market	Projection	Line	Edge	Actual	Trend
Hits	1.1	1.5DraftKings	-0.4	—	30% (3/10)· 2U streak
H+R+R	1.8	2.5DraftKings	-0.7	—	60% (6/10)· 1O streak
Total Bases	1.3	—	+0.0	—	40% (4/10)· 2U streak
Stolen Bases	0.2	0.5DraftKings	-0.3	—	40% (4/10)· 2O streak

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Analytics

Hits Ladder

1+ Hits

68.7%

2+ Hits

28.5%Line

3+ Hits

7.6%

4+ Hits

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Analytics

Power & Contact Profile

Barrel%

4.7%

Hard Hit%

29.6%

Exit Velo

82.9 mph

EV90

103.7 mph

Sweet Spot%

41.5%

Fly Ball%

20.9%

xSLG

0.484

ISO

0.195

14.3%

Contact%

81.1%

Bat Speed

67.6 mph

Swing Length

6.82 ft

Platoon HR%

2.8%

Analytics

Matchup History vs Kyle Leahy

View Kyle Leahy's report →

Avg

1.000

Analytics

Opposing Pitcher — Kyle Leahy

View Kyle Leahy's report →

HR% Allowed

1.8%

Barrel% Allowed

8.9%

Hard Hit% Allowed

46.3%

xSLG Allowed

0.507

Fly Ball% Allowed

23.7%

HR/FB

11.1%

HR/9 (est.)

0.70

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Prop performance terminal

HITS RESULTS

Historical hits performance against the selected market line.

Select prop

Situation:

30% (3/10)· 2U streak

Hits Simulator

Move the line to instantly recalculate every result.

Active line

1.5

0.56

Over

Under

Push

Line 1.5Model 1.1

Sep 5

vs STL

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

Sep 4

vs STL

UNDER

Hits

-1.5

Sep 2

vs BAL

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Sep 1

vs BAL

OVER

Hits

+0.5

Aug 31

vs BAL

UNDER

Hits

-0.5

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Analytics

Facing Today

View Kyle Leahy's report →

Pitch	Usage	Whiff%	Put-away%	Velo	Jake McCarthy's K% vs Pitch
4-Seam Fastball	23.3%	14.3%	9.8%	94.7	16.7%
Curveball	17.2%	25.6%	15.6%	83.4	6.4%
Slider	17.1%	26.4%	35.3%	89.5	27.3%
Changeup	16%	23.1%	19%	89	16.7%
Sweeper	14.3%	20.8%	17.3%	85	13.2%
Sinker	12.2%	14.1%	28.3%	94.6	22.7%

Green = a plus pitch for Kyle Leahy (Whiff%/Put-away% ≥30%/25%), or a real weakness for Jake McCarthy (K% vs Pitch ≥25%)Red = a below-average pitch for the pitcher (≤15%/12%), or one Jake McCarthy handles well (K% vs Pitch ≤12%)

Analytics

Vs. Pitcher's Arsenal (HR Model)

Pitch	Usage	P Hard Hit%	P wOBA	Batter Hard Hit%	Batter wOBA
4-Seam Fastball	23.3%	51.6%	0.464	29.5%	0.423
Curveball	17.2%	41.7%	0.215	28.6%	0.320
Slider	17.1%	46.2%	0.308	30.8%	0.196
Changeup	16%	36.8%	0.222	17.8%	0.214
Sweeper	14.3%	57.1%	0.380	19.2%	0.312
Sinker	12.2%	52%	0.201	34.3%	0.447

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